Tuesday, February 24, 2009


An astute reader indeed . . .

Here's the Nick J. conundrum in a nutshell . . .

He has the chance to make a healthy (ha ha) profit for you if he avoids any extended DL stints.  That's why he only makes $5m.  At what risk level do you take this bet?  Does he have a 30% chance of staying healthy and "earning" over $15m?  20%?  40%?  The payoff would be huge. 

OTOH, What percent chance does he turn into a huge loss?  50% 60%.  There probably isn't much middle ground there.  If healthy, he's almost guaranteed to give you a huge profit.  BUT THERE IS NO GUARANTEE.

It's not my money, but I think I'd make this call every time. 

And, not to give the current FO any credit, they have astutely hedged their Johnson bet with the troika of Dunn, Willingham and Kearns.  (even Da Meat Hook is hanging on the fringes of this plan).  Instead of rolling Fidel's grandson (Casto) or Belliard the larger at 1B, they are assured of having at least league average (balancing above average offense of Willingham and Dunn against their awful defense).

IOW, rejoice Nats fans.  There won't be a day this year when you head to the ballpark and see an offensive black hole at a premium power position. 

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