Friday, February 13, 2009

Dunn Hating?

A "person" named Michael Walsh rips the newest National as a bad signing. Let's take a look:

For his career Dunn has an OBP of .381 but when you subtract his home run total he has only scored 421 runs in 1,552 times on base. Of those 421 runs, 185 of them came after he walked. Dunn has drawn 797 walks in his career, meaning he has scored after a walk only 23% of the time. Of those 185 runs scored after a walk, Dunn has advanced (or been advanced by a teammate) into scoring position on 130 of them (70%). The point is that, unless he gets into scoring position, Adam Dunn’s walks are good for a run scored less than 25% of the time.

So what you're telling me is: Adam Dunn's teammates over his career SUCK. Because not even Rickey Henderson can steal second third and home and score a run by himself after a walk. As everyone now knows, RBI's are a context derived stat. Just as one needs runners on to get RBI's a runner on NEEDS SOMEONE TO DRIVE THEM IN.

It is painfully obvious when looking at Dunn’s stolen base and doubles totals that he does a poor job of getting into scoring position when not belting the long ball.

In 2003 and 2004 the National League leader in runs scored had exactly FIVE stolen bases. So you're telling me stolen bases correlate directly to runs scored. I await your crowning of Juan Pierre as an unappreciated All-Star

Dunn has driven in only 328 runners in 969 at bats with runners in scoring position (34%) for his career when not hitting a homer.

An undeniable truth. It's right there at Baseball I guess hitting with RISP IS a skill.

But wait. With runners on overall, Dunn's slash line is: 242/407/506. Unless my math is wrong, that's a .913 OPS. If that's what I can expect with runners on, that's OK by me. No, it's not Pujolian or Texierian but it's half the price.

A side note: Dunn led the league in pitches per plate appearance last season. Lastings Milledge at 3.96 and Flop are the only other Nats to make the top 25. If nothing else, starting pitchers will be working harder against the Nats this year than last. (I couldn't find team wide p/per PA stats but I'll wager the Nats ranked pretty low.)

I am fascinated by how many commentators deride Dunn for what he isn't rather than what he is. He is unquestionably an asset to any team he is on in total Metrics put it at about 2 wins a year. No, he isn't going to lead the league in steals, no he isn't going to win a gold glove and no he isn't going to go all DiMaggio on the Ks.

+2 to +3 win player for $10 million a year at only a two year commitment isn’t a bad deal, especially for a team that’s trying to draw some fans to a new park

Thank you for putting like I tried to.

A final aside: I purchased the Washington Nationals Once-a-day calendar this week. For $1. Today's fun Nationals Fact: In 2007 the Washington Nationals were one of just three major league teams to go the entire season without having {sic} to starter pitch a complete game, along with the Rangers and Marlins.

So, not only do we have a completely lame and negative fact, but there is a glaring grammatical error. Way to go marketing dept!!!!!

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