Thursday, September 29, 2011

Oh a whole load of disjointed thoughts

INTERNET BASEBALL WRITERS ASSOCIATION: Washington, D.C. Chapter: DC-Internet Baseball Writers Association Announce 2011 Player Achievement Awards:

'via Blog this'

I voted. And I pretty much followed the final voting. I wasn't Tyler Clippard's first place vote for MVP but I am responsible for some of his 24 points.

The only winner I didn't back was Danny E. in the defensive player of the year award. I went with sheer watchability and voted for Rick Ankiel. I would favorite a You Tube compilation of just his OF assists this year.

As for yesterday, I sort of tuned out after watching Strasburg humiliate one Marlin after another. Anything I missed?

Really, you think Bud Selig is giving the up yours to all the critics of the Wild Card today? He should.

After M.Texeria's grand slam, I flipped over to a combination of the Braves/Phillies and the Man U/Basel Champions League match. Who knew that a injury time goal by goliath Man U to salvage a draw with a Davidesque Basel would be such a tiny footnote to the evening.

Here's some mathmatical perspective on the events of last night courtesy of Nate Silver:

The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let’s put all of them together in sequence:

  • The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.
  • The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.
  • The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.
  • The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.
  • Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way.

    Couldn't ask for a better way to lead into the playoffs for baseball. I'll be interested in seeing if this doesn't boost ratings at least for the division series (although the whole Boston market is OUT I'm sure.)

    Been remiss is chronicling my MASN blogger day trip. So here's the condensed version:

    1. The ball sounds different in BP when it comes off the bat of Michael Morse and Ryan Zimmerman. I know that seems obvious but it made me wonder exactly why? Were they stronger? Were their swings just able to generate more bat speed? Are they more adept at making optimal contact? Nevertheless, you can tell a power hitter just by the sound of the contact in BP. I'm eagerly anticipating hearing Bryce Harper take BP one day.

    2. Davey Johnson is a teacher. For most of the BP session, Davey was talking one on one with players, teaching, demonstrating, basically passing on knowledge. Some people like to do that and some don't. For a young team, that has to be a plus. And Davey didn't just spend time with his best players, he was teaching to everyone on the roster.

    3. The dessert cart in the club level is beyond description. Just a sugar orgy on wheels.

    80 wins. I have to say that I am surprised. I guess we have the whole off season to examine this season and see exactly why this 70 win team in April ended up ten wins better. And it's not all Mike Morse because the difference between Adam LaRoche's prediction and Morse's is close to the difference between Jayson Werth's prediction and actual just in the other direction. Maybe its all Tyler Clippard?

    M. Rizzo -- my 2 cents. Take the next month off. Just go sit on a beach and have waiters bring you tropical cocktails until Halloween. For two reasons. First, you'll grind the other 11 months of the years and Second, I'd rather not have to pay for a fluky post-season performance in the FA market over the winter. It would be better if you just didn't even see it.

    Then come Nov. 1 it's back to work with just two goals for this offseason:

    1) Speedy McLeadoff CF
    2) Shape the rotation after SS and JZ.