Tuesday, June 23, 2009

I like being right once in a while

mostly because I'm wrong a whole lot more.

But I thought I'd just log for future generations this bit of fortunetelling . . . .

Here's what Heyman (SI baseball writer said see #14)

Here's what I said.


An interesting 40 minutes of talk on the Nats draft here.

My thumbnail review: too easy on the new regime.  They aren't focusing on more polished college players, they made signability picks from #10 on down.  That is an entirely unacceptable strategic decision. 

I can live with not handing out big money major league FA contracts.  They almost never work out and can be huge failures. 

But to go cheap at the draft!!  C'mon.  In terms of actual outlay, what are we talking?  Even with Strasburg's contract, would they to top $30 million even if they took tough signs?  Say $20 million to SS another $4m to Tyler Matzuk who was a top 5 talent and is asking for this.  Still have $6 million left for the rest of the draft. 

I don't hesitate to point out that this team was over $40 million in the black last year.  That's profit.  So don't tell me it isn't in the budget.  If it isn't, then that's a choice.  You've decided to skimp on the best way to build a lasting winner.  And you get away with it because everyone feels sorry for you that big bad Scott Boras is going to bend you over and make you pay out the wazoo for the top guy.

So for less than half of A.J. Burnett's $82.5 million over the next 5 years, you could add 3-4 impact prospects to your mostly barren farm system. 

Instead they've basically punted.  Pin everything on SS being the guy they think he'll be and no one will remember the other picks.

Please, look at why you are where you are.  Those disasterous drafts of the early to mid '00s. Now, aside from SS, 2009 is a waste.

And fine, you like groundball pitchers and are focusing on infield defense.  Guess what?  That's not what other teams are looking at.  So, if that's your plan and it seems solid enough, then work it.  Get your guys LATER rather than earlier.  That 3rd round pick would have been there in the 10th. 

I'd be somewhat mollified if they were just honest about it.  Yes, we're cheap bastards and we're not going to go above and beyond build a winner.  Why should we when Red Sox fans fill our park? 

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