Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Tired old memes

Nationals Inquisition � A Problem Like A Donkey Named Dunn

The case for dealing Dunn isn't so cut and dried:

  1. Dunn wants 4-years/$60 million: If true, it is absolutely insane for a 30-year old masher who strikes out just as much as he puts the ball in play. His defense is below average to average at best and the National League doesn’t DH so why the Nats would pay for one, I have no idea. Thinking about it, he might actually be able to get that sort of deal– but not in D.C. He shouldn’t.
  2. Dunn Is Going To Be 10-and-5: MASN’s Ben Goessling pointed out something yesterday that is very important: if Dunn stays with the team and gets a four year deal, in the final year of that deal Dunn would be eligible for 10-and-5 rights and would be able to block any sort of trade. That isn’t territory you want to enter with a slugger who is going to break down more than build up at his age. Good find, Ben.
  3. Does Dunn Even Want To Be A Nat?: We know he says he wants to stay, but come on. An aging vet who never has tasted the playoffs doesn’t want the opportunity before he has to hang it up? Isn’t that what these guys play for? Dunn signing with the Nats to begin with seemed like desperation to just get on the field rather than an actual desire to play for a last place team.
  4. They Could Always Re-sign Him: The Nats could always trade Dunn at the Deadline and with it being his Free Agent year, they could always re-sign him during the off season if he truly likes it in D.C. Hell, it might be the best “take one for the team ever.” The Nats are all but finished this season, Dunn goes to a contender after getting traded and gets his chance at the playoffs while the Nats get valuable prospects. Then, in the off season they re-sign Dunn. So by next season the Nats could rake in both prospects and Dunn and lose nothing. It is a fantasy situation, but it is one to stroke yourself over if you think about it.

1. "tired old masher who strikes out as much as he puts the ball in play" -- please stop. Even at his worst, Dunn's bat has been a huge plus every season he's played. All the K's do is limit BA upside. I will note the K's also lower the DP chances . . . think the Nats would be better off if Pudge could K a few extra times! At 4/$60 he'd be a bargain next to Ryan Howard who he resembles in many ways. Of course, Dunn's a BETTER defender at 1B than Howard so there's that. Let's say Dunn's a 4 win player for the next four years. That's worth about $12-$14m per. The Lerner's can afford to overpay slightly, they have the money.

2. 10-5 rights. Who cares? First, it's in the last year of his deal. Second, you'd only want to move him if your "rebuilding" effort has failed completely so what's Dunn's incentive to block a trade? Yes, he'll have extra leverage four years from now, is that a reason to accept a substandard return NOW?

3. So what you are saying is Dunn should take less money to play for a contender? Really. Because that happens all the time. Bottom line is: high bid wins. No one knows who will be good or terrible two years from now. And Dunn seems to be a decent clubhouse guy -- he's no Yunel Escobar at least so there aren't chemistry issues which might drive down the price.

4. I guarantee at least one team will look at Dunn and say as a 1B/DH we can get a highly productive hitter for much less than what Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez would cost. Also, Dunn is going to be a Type A free agent and he will get an Arb offer. So to trade and resign will cost your 2nd round pick -- even more reason to hold out for a much higher prospect price.

One has to look at Cincinnati. They certainly don’t seem to be missing Adam Dunn in their line-up.

Teams NOT better off with Dunn @ 1B this year: San Diego, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Detroit, Boston . . . umm ahhhh anyone else? Texeria's been terrible, Dunn's been better than Howard & Fielder and Morneau's been hurt. For everyone else, Dunn represents a massive upgrade. Yes, the teams he's played on have sucked and his play in LF was a part of the suck. But he's not responsible for 90% of the suck and even at his glovetastic worst, he was still a net plus.

Again, I don't disagree with the trade Dunn route. I only disagree that it's a must trade situation. Guzman, that's a must trade situation. Capps should be a higher trade priority since his value will never be higher between his relative success and the thin reliever market and his cost certainty next year.

Trade Dunn but only if you get a premium. Hudson, Tyler Flowers and Christian Marrero take it or leave it Kenny.

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