Not that anyone cares but I approve this message

Nationals minor leagues: How Hagerstown scored 24 runs and the rise of Danny Rosenbaum - Nationals Journal - The Washington Post:

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Harris said Skole’s patience signified why Hagerstown has “started to heat up. They’re doing a very good job of controlling the strike zone.”


I heartily approve this organizational message.  Although as a complete nerd I did ask the Fangraphs prospect maven about Skole yesterday and he said he didn't like Skole coming out of college but that he had dropped 20-30 lbs and looked much better at the plate. The field well that was a different story.  I remain hopeful since I sat at the Pfitz a while back and saw Mike Moustakous lose a game when a three hopper went right between the wickets. I would have sworn to you he couldn't handle the hot corner in a slo pitch softball league after that but now I can't turn on webgems without seeing him making a play.   So let hope spring eternal.


I know the bullpen depth is an issue without Storen but to my eye Tyler Clippard needs to take a break.  The last two years of massive use have finally caught up to him.  He's not built like a horse and I think its starting to show.  It happens with relief pitchers, they lose effectiveness after heavy use.  And no one's been leaned on more than Tyler.  And that's not just a comment on last night. It seems even when he's gotten out of jams (like the 7th last night for example) he's really struggling with command.  And it seems they have a scouting report -- lay off the change.  


Hitting is down all over MLB so far this season.  That's good in the sense that the anemic offense isn't that out of the ordinary. But its clear its going to be a problem. Not a killer problem since I am sure the pitching is as good as advertised.  So we're in for a season of 3-2, 2-1 games with a lot of drama at the ends.  In fact, if Storen doesn't return at all, I'd put Henry Rodriguez in line for 40+ saves assuming he maintains his current grip on the strike zone.

Someone more technologically adept than me needs to make that video

Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | MLB.com: Multimedia:


Please someone make a Rick Ankiel throws from the OF highlight reel.  You could even include the throw he made after his 3 base error when he hit Zim on one hop from the base of the wall and made that play closer than it had any right to be.

Lay everything else off to the side and just witness such a display of athletic achievement.  How many humans could do what he just did?  If there were a lot, we'd see them patrolling OFs all over the majors.

I may have been wrong when I wrote that this is a .500 team.  The offense is a problem but it's not an insurmountable one.  There is NO question that this team has pitching and defense.  You can go a long way with those two.  Its clear that this team is going to play a LOT of close games meaning that luck and the odd outstanding play will determine wins and losses. Luck evens out but defense is a controllable constant.  Right now the weakest link defensively is the left fielder.  And if that's your weakest link you are in pretty good shape.

I even think they'll be fine offensively if Desmond and Espinosa can keep getting on base with such regularity.  Desmond's been the real revelation so far, what can you say about a guy whose been your best player from an 8-3 streak?  Its an absurdly small sample size yes but being the best player for an 8-3 stretch has some meaning. I know Desi won't keep it up but he really doesn't have to.  Just play solid defense and get on base.  Zimmerman will come around and maybe by that time Morse will be back.

At the very least, there sin't a game the Nats can go into right now where I think yeah they've got a huge edge in the starting pitcher department.  That's a major turnaround.  I've got to think seeing the Nats on the schedule looks great to opposing fans but the advance scouts are telling the players hey no free lunches this series boys.  You are gonna have to get after it or we'll be shut down.

I guess there is a reason Davey Johnson's teams always end up better than anyone believes at the start of a season.

Following the script

You could do a search and replace on National's pitchers and their "sore" elbows.

This time cut and paste Drew Storen's name.

How many time does this have to happen?  First it's no big deal then its rest and rehab then its a flight to Birmingham and see you next year.

Although the way H Rod and the rest of the pen pitched in Chicago, maybe we won't miss Storen all that much.

That will be key however. This looks like a team that will play a lot of close games. They can't score and their pitching will keep them in it.

However, should Morse return soon at nearly the same level of production as last year and if Desi and Espi keep getting on base I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty decent offense.  La Roche finding his stroke is the best possible news. Let's see it happen for a month though -- of course given La Roche's history we'll have to see it for an entire season before its real.

Lannan and other Opening Day thoughts

John Lannan Wants To Work For Food | Nationals Inquisition:

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In a way, you can't blame John Lannan for asking for a trade.  Especially if the narrative, which we have to construct, is that Davey told him he's the #5 starter and then (after some stage whispers from above) he suddenly was on a bus to Syracuse.  It would be difficult to perform for an organization that basically lied to your face.

Even given the worst case scenario, it is not in the Nats interest to move Lannas just to move him.  I hear all this oh his $5m salary is going to be a sticking point.  Really.  I dare you to name the #4 and #5 starters for the AL East powerhouse Boston Red Sox?

I know Lannan defies all the statistical profiles, he really shouldn't be a league average hurler.  I know the K rates stink but the fact is over the past three seasons he's been every bit the league average as you could be.  And for many teams, that would be a huge upgrade.  Without a lot of injury risk either.

Hold out for something of value. Preferably a prospect even one a long way away.

It's kind of a strange feeling Opening Day 2012.  There are actual expectations now.  As pessimistic as I want to be I really can't.  There is no reason this team shouldn't be at least .500 barring massive injuries.  And if you can be .500, you have a shot at getting a little lucky and being in the thick of a wild card race.  Losses will hurt now rather than just be part of the rebuilding process.  Wins are now expected or at least taken somewhat for granted, they should win half the time now.  It's like the transition from the Wizards to the Capitals.  For the Wiz, any hopeful sign is welcome while the Caps failure is harshly judged.  This team is moving from the one to the other and it will be interesting to see how these expectations are managed early on.

One more thing. To all you bemoaning the lack of a true Centerfielder on the Opening Day roster . . . pray tell where would you have found one this off season?  In case you didn't know, it is one of the most difficult positions to fill.  Plus defenders with at least on base skills are hard to come by and not easily given up.  Leaving the position essentially open means a possible Harper transition is easier (although I am increasingly becoming of a mind that we won't see Bryce till September. Just a hunch perhaps my natural pessimism rearing its ugly head.)

If nothing else, it will be satisfying to look at the daily pitching matchups on any given day and think We've got a damn good shot today!  That's something I never said in the Martin/Simontachi/Martis years.

As for a prediction, I'll say 82-80.  And that's because I think they are much better than last year but last year's 80 wins was slightly above what they really were.  So 82 wins is really a nice leap.  And it would set the stage for a no doubt about it run in 2013.

25 CFs since 2005?

Nationals Continue Monitoring Center Field Market: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com:

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That's what they say. And sadly it sounded right.

2005

Wilkerson 88

Wilson 54

Church 12

Byrd 2

Chavez 2

2006

Byrd 44

Church 42

Logan 25

Escobar 19

Jackson 15

Watson 7

Anderson 5

Kearns 4

Matos 1

2007

Logan 79

Church 39

Langerhans 33

Maxwell 5

Watson 5

Kearns 1

2008

Milledge 134

Harris 14

Bernadina 12

Dukes 1

2009

Harris 53

Morgan 47

Dukes 32

Maxwell 20

Milledge 5

Kearns 2

Patterson 1

Bernadina 1

Padilla

2010

Morgan 128

Bernadina 20

Maxwell 13

Taveras 1

2011

Ankiel 84

Bernadina 50

Werth 17

Hairston 6

Bixler 4

Nix

I found 27. If you count starts only it's 25. Laynce Nix and Jorge Padilla are listed as playing the position but not having any starts.

Only twice in the last 6 years has a player started over 100 games in CF for the Nats in the same season.

Of the 27, only 11 played in more than one season. (Church, Byrd, Logan, Watson, Kearns, Maxwell, Milledge, Harris, Bernadina, Dukes, Morgan)

Bernadina the only one who started in 4 different seasons or more. Church and Maxwell had starts in three different seasons. The others, two only.

Added 5 to the list just last year.

Totals

Morgan 175

Milledge 139

Logan 104

Church 93

Wilkerson 88

Ankiel 84

Bernadina 83

Harris 67

Wilson 54

Byrd 46

Maxwell 38

Langerhans 33

Dukes 33

Escobar 19

Werth 17

Damien Jackson 15

Watson 12

Kearns 7

Hairston 6

Anderson M. 5

Bixler 4

Chavez 2

Matos 1

Patterson 1

Tavares 1

Padilla 1*

Nix 1*

Of course, out of context this seems like a lot. I'm not ambitious enough to compare it to other teams CF's over the last 6 years or to another position to see if this is way out of the ordinary.

And finally, it really doesn't tell us anything we don't already know . . . CF has been a disaster from the beginning.

What is it with Ulnar Collateral Ligaments and this Franchise?

Washington Nationals' Left-Hander Sammy Solis Joins Jordan Zimmermann And Stephen Strasburg. - Federal Baseball:

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I suppose there is a good reason for TINSAAP but come on. Another top pitching prospect needs TJ? Maybe they should just do a proactive TJ on Purke and Meyer right now.

What is troubling about the Solis saga is that it parallels many other pitching injuries suffered. Lack of firm and quick diagnosis. Now it was plainly obvious when Strasburg snapped his elbow but in a bunch of other cases it has gone just like Solis . . . loss of effectivness followed by elbow pain followed by rest followed by a quickly aborted comeback followed by a trip to Dr. Andrews.

I understand that medical science isn't an exact one. But this isn't an episode of House. There isn't some mysterious underlying cause of elbow pain. These are pitchers, they hurt their elbows all the time in predictable ways. It shouldn't be that hard to figure it out.

Further, can we just chalk this up to the vagaries of fate? Is there a problem with the training staff? Strength and conditioning? Clearly the Nats medical and training staff lags behind say the Phoenix Suns but are they somehow hurting the organization? It would seem to me to be a rather prudent investment for a billionaire to make who owns a MLB club (since we know they aren't going to spend internationally!)

Speaking of spending, kudos for the Zimmerman extension. As long as he stays healthy, which you could say about any long term guaranteed deal, he should be worth it. And we like Zimm so there shouldn't be the same show me resentment that clouds our view of Jayson Werth. We already appreciate the ways Zimm helps defensively, they way he leads and of course his "clutchiness". Even with a decline, I imagine the fan base would be saddened rather than angry about Zimm's albatross contract.

Let me say this too. The Phillies are not going to be as good as everyone thinks they are. Chase Utley's already dinged, Howard's declining and he's hurt, Rollins is way older and theire best pitchers on on the wrong side of 30 too. It would not surprise me if the Phiting Phils struggled to break .500.

Does Super Agent Scott Boras have a conscious?

Nationals To Sign Edwin Jackson | February:

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Because if he did, this is his penance for what the Nationals did for him in re: the Werth deal, the Texeria deal AND the Fielder deal.

I know all about Edwin Jackson's flaws. Bottom line: he was good enough to start playoff games LAST YEAR. I would not be embarrassed to have him start one this year. Quite frankly, as much as I can appreciate John Lannan and his magic wizardry, I can't see him pitching in a crucial game.

But let's not get hasty about it.

There is zero reason to just dump Lannan because you have a "glut" of starters. Those "gluts" tend to work themselves down to well I think Jason Simontacchi will go on Thursday real quick.

And if it doesn't come to that for the Nats, it WILL come to that for someone else. Hopefully, it will come to a team with a surplus CF who can get on base. (Pie in the sky I know.)

Is this now an 80 win team with significant upside potential? I'd have to say it is.