Thursday, January 22, 2009

Wolf, Perez and (Noooooooooooo) Garland

Boz on the Nats FA pitching targets:

The Nats brain trust is serious about Wolf, Garland (200 innings)
and maybe (longshot, if they got out the big wallet) Oliver Perez. Will
the money trust agree?

Right now, they'd have a good shot to get him for $35-M for thee
years. he just turned down $30-M for three years. I don't think he's
worth that. Rather get Wolf or Garland for less.

Sheets is just that __a chance. Kasten and Bowden don't want to take

"chances" this winter. There's no need to do that. There's still too
much quality merchandise available. Stan told me yesterday, "There are
stil 117 unsigned free agents out there. That's unheard of at this time
of year." That's why Hudson, with his wrist, has moved to a middle, not
front burner. Though if you got Dunn, you could go back to the same
agent and, perhaps, do an incentive-heavy deal for Hudson.

Does a guy who has struck out 851 batters over 1,625.3 innings and have 7 season in a row over 190IP sound like a reasonable investment of $10m over the next three years? And in those 7 seasons, he's managed to be just slightly better than average 104 ERA+. All for $10m and the first pick in the 2nd round this year.

Wolf isn't much better. Career ERA+ of 101. 1227 K's in 1468 IP. Two years older and a long history of arm problems too. Looks like his solid second half for Houston was a fluke (3.57 ERA but 4.25 lgERA). It's a telling stat since for the rest of Wolf's career his ERA has generally been higher than his lgERA.

Investing in Oliver Perez might make you look like a genius (239K's in 196IP as a 22 year old ERA+ of 145) or a Bonifay Age 23 and 24 season ERA+ of 72 and 67. Or perhaps he's settled in at last year's 100 ERA+. Perfect mediocratiy. But a mediocratiy gotten to not by blandly churning out 6IP 4ER performances but the 8IP 1 ER 12K followed by the 1.3 8 ER implosion. I guess if you are interested in making baseball exciting in DC, he's your guy.

Really, would anyone be happy with one of these guys if it costs the top pick in the 2nd round of the draft (assuming they can sign him!)? Because it is essentially a trade to sign one of them.

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