Who's running the asylum?

To quote the great John McEnroe:

Jim, you cannot be serious.

Reward veterans who's played hard all year?  Owe it to contenders? 

On one hand, Riggs attitude is the correct one for a manager.  A manager's job is to win the next game. Period. 

But there has to be someone in the organization who isn't focused on the next game.  That's what the VP for baseball operations or  whatever title Rizzo got when they made him general manager.

He's the one who tells the manager "Listen, I know its not our best chance to win tomorrow but I have to know some things about our young players if I am to make informed choices this off season.  So, play Desmond.  Everyday.  I'll deal with any hurt feelings."

This has clearly happened on the pitching side where Detwiler will only get in a few mop up innings. Right now, wouldn't Ross be the first choice to take an open rotation spot?  Syracuse record would make that case. But that ain't happening.  (Notice how they just shut  Martis down rather than give Riggs an option)

These September innings are of absolutely no 2009 value.  But they do represent an asset for the future.  Let's see if Desmond can be an everyday player.  Can Maxwell stick as a 4th OF? 

And keep this AB/IP as an asset in mind during the off season.  A veteran SP could be had with just enough cash and a promise of a rotation spot guaranteed.  Someone like Ben Sheets.  Hey Ben, instead of killing your 2011 value by getting hammered playing for a contender (Brad Penny for example), why not sign in Washington for one year?  We'll accommodate your schedule . . . need an extra day off? No problem.  need to skip a turn. Be my guest.   And if you regain form  by July 1, you will be traded to a contender.  You won't know in the spring if the team you pick will be a contender.  We can guarantee that if you pitch well, you'll be in a pennant race in August/September.  Some agent has to be smart enough to see that's a pretty good deal for his client.

Shank end of the season

The shank end of a miserable season. At least now it's post September 1 and we can focus all our energies on 2010.

Cause who wants to look at the sorry mess of 2009 anymore. And please, can we get the gremlins away from our young pitchers elbows. Does anyone doubt that Craig Stammen will be in James Andrews waiting room a week from today?

Right now we know for certain only four members of the pitching staff for 2010: Lannan, Mock, Burnett and Clippard. That's seven or eight spots up in the air.

Lots of candidates for the three open rotation spots: Martin, Martis, Detwiler, Balester, FA pitcher to be named later, Livan!, I'll even add Stammen on here on the off chance that his elbow ligament isn't already the shape of a never ending pasta bowl at Olive Garden. One might be tempted to add Strasburg and as the options decrease, this becomes more likely. Although I'm sure they'd rather have SS start out in the minors just to defuse some of the inevitable franchise savior stuff.

When you cull it all down, there are only two real difference makers avaibale on the FA market in the starting pitcher department.

John Lackey will be 31 next season and has a career ERA+ of 117. Been less than healthy the last two years after 5 years of heavy labor. Still effective when he pitches though. Have to wonder why the Angels seem ready to part ways with him.

He is somewhat of a flyball pitcher .78 career GB/FB ratio so that's not Rizzo's style. But maybe, with Nyjer patrolling CF, a flyball pitcher would be prefereable to the IF defense with Guzzie and Dunn. Have to believe the Angels will offer him arbitration at least, he only made $7m in 2009 so he'd cost the 2nd round pick. Have to think moving to the NL would be a boost.

He'll probably be expensive -- can't see giving him 5 years. What kind of pitcher will he be at 36? But he might command that kind of deal. Still, he's no flash in the pan and is about as good a bet as anyone in the FA pitching market to come within 80% of his salary in value.

Now the other is Rich Hardin.

Age 28 for next season. Career ERA+ of 129. Most of that in the American League too. .68 GB/FB ratio, another flyball pitcher. Over a K per inning for his career too.

Never thrown 200 innings in any one season. IOW -- extreme injury risk.

One look at his top comp tells you all you need to know about Hardin: Mark Prior. If his arm is right, he's great. But most of the time it's not.

A.J. Burnett had the same reputation and got 5/85 last offseason. But this off season: Will the Yanks be in the SP market at all? Will the Red Sox? If they aren't, who would pony up the dough for Hardin? Again, the Cubs likely to offer arbitration so he'll cost the 2nd rounder too.

No doubt the Nationals management is going to ignore these two on the premise that top of the line FA pitching is a luxury reserved for big market teams or teams just a player or two away. I would hope, at least, that they keep their options open. The market for either of them may be softer than we realize right now. Would it be so bad to get either one for three years even if you had to go to the $12-$15m range?

My post hype prospect who was freely available in ST but not picked up due to the logjam of DH?1B types:

Andy Marte

BAd teams need to keep options open and take chances on guys like this. We all remember how Dmitri worked out but there was another FA 1B freely available that off season . . .

Not enough

$15+ million? Only $8m this year.

Are you kidding me?

No money for the rest of the draft. No money for international signings. No money to absorb major league salary in exchange for prospects.

And it comes out to a mere $8m?

Let's say after SS's $8m and the crummy attendance and the miniscule ratings that the team only breaks even this year.

There is still the matter of the $35-$40m PROFIT from last year. Profit NOT reinvested in the product in any appreciable way this year.

Kansas F*(&^&%^( City was blowing up slot up and down the draft. The whole day yesterday signings kept coming in: 7th round pick Brody Colvin signs for $900k with the Phils. And on and on.

Are you telling me that a franchise with the worst record in baseball last year, with the worst record in baseball this year a billionaire owner AND turned a profit last year CAN"T AFFORD to spend on the draft?

Ackley the #2 pick got $7.5m guaranteed $9.5 in all. That's only a LoDuca more than SS!

It's easy to spend other people's money I know. I just wonder why this franchise is acting like a small to mid market franchise when it should be one of the big boys. I'll grant you half of New York is bigger than the DC metro area but Philly? Atlanta? Florida? Should easily be able to compete financially with those guys.

And at least until 2012, the Mets are totally hamstrung!

Great. You did what you had to do and signed Strasburg. Now go get the guy some help.

I told you so

Meet Aaron Crow . . . much less rich because he is a greedy bastard.

How'd that turning down $3.5 turn out for ya? 

Please call Steven Strasburg and tell him your story.  How you lost millions (the difference between what he'll get this year over last year plus the fact that he's one year farther away from his FA contract) by holding out for "What you are worth".  HA HA HA HA HA

It probably not right to make such mean generalizations about a kid like that.  I'm sure his agents told him to hold out, the offers would get better.  You never hear about how that strategy fails (Matt Harrington anyone?). 

Gambler's Fallacy. . . they are dead right

I've mentioned the gambler's fallacy before. Basically, it means that previous events don't influence future events. Like if you flip a coin and heads comes up 10 times in a row. Tails is "due" but the likelihood of a tail is the same as it was the first 10 times.

But obviously that doesn't work for baseball. For the last 25 games, the same breaks that they didn't get in the first half they get. Timely hitting, decent pitching from the starters and the pen and tighter defense. This is the team we thought we had in ST . . . regularly mediocre rather than the bust of historic proportions we suffered through.

It is going to take some getting used to. I shut off the Game Cast of Thursday's game at 6-0. If seen that movie too many times I thought. Oops.

Anyway on to other matters.

First, the Guzman saga. Boston claimed him, then no they didn't no one claimed him. Nats say they aren't looking to deal him.

If so, I wonder why the Yanks didn't claim him. Cashman should know the Nats aren't going to stick him with the $8m next year and it would block the Sox from getting the SS they need.

What to pay the mighty Strasburg. Here's the debate at MLBTR:

Two points. I advocated the Godfather method espoused by one poster here. Make an initial public offer so large that it would make him look like a greedy bastard for saying no. Upsides: he might have signed two months ago and might be in the rotation right now. No one could claim cheapness. Downsides: they really want the $50m and wouldn't budge no matter what public pressure.

A lot of the posters make the point that SS isn't worth even $20m since he hasn't proved himself in MLB. What did not proven in MLB Dice-K get? That's been a mixed blessing for Boston at best. But, and this is Boras' argument, the Dice-K deal sets the market for major league ready pitching talent outside of MLB. And he's right.

Strasburg's problem comes from the fact that he doesn't have good options. Forgo a year of $20m in the pocket and risk injury and getting NOTHING and liking it. Dice-K could have stayed in Japan and made more money than 99% of his countrymen. Also, waiting a year to sign means you are one year farther away from the big payday, the first FA deal.

It's also unlikely that Boras could scare off a San Diego or Kansas City from taking him so he could fall to a big market team (Mets should be in the top 10 thanks to Omar!). Why? He's out of leverage. He CAN'T sit out two years.

Hey, some international spending. Way to go guys! Now, crack open that checkbook just a bit wider and get this guy too.

Finally, I won't give a detailed report on the Saturday night P-Nats game I attended. I will say this: Michael Burgess hit a ball that is still traveling. I mean an absolute BOMB. In the first, he hit a frozen rope that one hopped the 400 foot sign in dead center. 2nd inning . . . wow. It cleared the 400 foot sign in dead center, over the second row of billboards, over the American flagpole and disappeared into the trees. It wouldn't surprise me if one or two of those trees were lying on their sides. My friend said that was the longest home run he's ever seen and I have to agree. Tom Milone started and scattered 6 hits in 6 1/3. Didn't seem dominant just very efficient.

Progression to the Mean

I'm pretty sure I wrote that when Manny got the ax, the new guy was likely to look better in comparison simply by progression to the mean. That is, the Nats HAD to be luckier than they were in the first half. Well, that seems to be the case.

11-11 in the Riggleman era. With the starting rotation in tatters, I can't see this being a .500 team but they are now what we thought they were . . . below average but not historically bad. Good offense, suspect run prevention.

Nyjer Morgan's been playing way over his head and that's helped a lot. The middle of the order has taken turns scalding the ball. Aside from Morgan, the rest of the team has been about the same as when they were losing 7 out of 10 on a regular basis.

You know, I'm just going to enjoy this week of wins. It'll be 10 days from now when I can hang my head in shame as the future of the franchise gets fitted for his Fort Wayne Cats uni. I was confident the Lerner's understood how important this was and they would simply make a deal happen. Boras has to know he isn't getting $50 million. Lerner's know they are going to fork over $20m guaranteed at least. Now, I think it was going to be a pissing match from the start and nothing was supposed to happen.

Look at how many 1st rounders are unsigned. And very few if any over slot. Hmmmmm. Of course, this time the players union will be at the defense table during the collusion hearings.

And one last musing. At least 2/5ths of the starting rotation is completely untrustworthy (Mock and Martin). Stammen is slightly better but not much. There is nothing in the pipeline either. J Zimm needs to be shut down. He's got the #2 starter job sewn up, no need to stress that shoulder. Anyway, this starter problem looks to wear out an already fragile bullpen. THose guy have alimited shelf life as is and they would be better used up in coming years.



Attn: Front Office. Get better fast without losing talent. See here.

Not much change

Aaron Thompson is one more soft tossing lefty in the organization. Hurrah. Maybe he grows up to be John Lannan . . . more likely he grows up to be Matt Chico. At least they got the idea . . . they basically paid the rest of NJ's salary for Thompson. A good start but not really the impact deal we're hoping for.

I do like the fact that one of the guys they got for Beimel comes pre-injured. That'll save a bundle in medical bills. Ha ha the Rockies had to pay to fix his elbow ligament!!!

Once again a trade deadline passes without a major move. Not that one was possible without any real assets to deal. I just read that the most salary any one team took at at the deadline was a little over $7m. So no one was taking on salary (except for the Peavy deal no long term expenses either).

Give them another gold star for bringing Elijah back and making him a regular. Please don't keep fing with him. Zim Dunn Willingham Dukes makes a pretty formidable middle of the order. At least it could.

Really the only mystery left is the Strasburg countdown. Two weeks exactly. As I've said before, it's a franchise defining moment. Don't screw it up.