Friday, August 7, 2009

Progression to the Mean

I'm pretty sure I wrote that when Manny got the ax, the new guy was likely to look better in comparison simply by progression to the mean. That is, the Nats HAD to be luckier than they were in the first half. Well, that seems to be the case.

11-11 in the Riggleman era. With the starting rotation in tatters, I can't see this being a .500 team but they are now what we thought they were . . . below average but not historically bad. Good offense, suspect run prevention.

Nyjer Morgan's been playing way over his head and that's helped a lot. The middle of the order has taken turns scalding the ball. Aside from Morgan, the rest of the team has been about the same as when they were losing 7 out of 10 on a regular basis.

You know, I'm just going to enjoy this week of wins. It'll be 10 days from now when I can hang my head in shame as the future of the franchise gets fitted for his Fort Wayne Cats uni. I was confident the Lerner's understood how important this was and they would simply make a deal happen. Boras has to know he isn't getting $50 million. Lerner's know they are going to fork over $20m guaranteed at least. Now, I think it was going to be a pissing match from the start and nothing was supposed to happen.

Look at how many 1st rounders are unsigned. And very few if any over slot. Hmmmmm. Of course, this time the players union will be at the defense table during the collusion hearings.

And one last musing. At least 2/5ths of the starting rotation is completely untrustworthy (Mock and Martin). Stammen is slightly better but not much. There is nothing in the pipeline either. J Zimm needs to be shut down. He's got the #2 starter job sewn up, no need to stress that shoulder. Anyway, this starter problem looks to wear out an already fragile bullpen. THose guy have alimited shelf life as is and they would be better used up in coming years.

Attn: Front Office. Get better fast without losing talent. See here.

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