Monday, August 10, 2009

Gambler's Fallacy. . . they are dead right

I've mentioned the gambler's fallacy before. Basically, it means that previous events don't influence future events. Like if you flip a coin and heads comes up 10 times in a row. Tails is "due" but the likelihood of a tail is the same as it was the first 10 times.

But obviously that doesn't work for baseball. For the last 25 games, the same breaks that they didn't get in the first half they get. Timely hitting, decent pitching from the starters and the pen and tighter defense. This is the team we thought we had in ST . . . regularly mediocre rather than the bust of historic proportions we suffered through.

It is going to take some getting used to. I shut off the Game Cast of Thursday's game at 6-0. If seen that movie too many times I thought. Oops.

Anyway on to other matters.

First, the Guzman saga. Boston claimed him, then no they didn't no one claimed him. Nats say they aren't looking to deal him.

If so, I wonder why the Yanks didn't claim him. Cashman should know the Nats aren't going to stick him with the $8m next year and it would block the Sox from getting the SS they need.

What to pay the mighty Strasburg. Here's the debate at MLBTR:

Two points. I advocated the Godfather method espoused by one poster here. Make an initial public offer so large that it would make him look like a greedy bastard for saying no. Upsides: he might have signed two months ago and might be in the rotation right now. No one could claim cheapness. Downsides: they really want the $50m and wouldn't budge no matter what public pressure.

A lot of the posters make the point that SS isn't worth even $20m since he hasn't proved himself in MLB. What did not proven in MLB Dice-K get? That's been a mixed blessing for Boston at best. But, and this is Boras' argument, the Dice-K deal sets the market for major league ready pitching talent outside of MLB. And he's right.

Strasburg's problem comes from the fact that he doesn't have good options. Forgo a year of $20m in the pocket and risk injury and getting NOTHING and liking it. Dice-K could have stayed in Japan and made more money than 99% of his countrymen. Also, waiting a year to sign means you are one year farther away from the big payday, the first FA deal.

It's also unlikely that Boras could scare off a San Diego or Kansas City from taking him so he could fall to a big market team (Mets should be in the top 10 thanks to Omar!). Why? He's out of leverage. He CAN'T sit out two years.

Hey, some international spending. Way to go guys! Now, crack open that checkbook just a bit wider and get this guy too.

Finally, I won't give a detailed report on the Saturday night P-Nats game I attended. I will say this: Michael Burgess hit a ball that is still traveling. I mean an absolute BOMB. In the first, he hit a frozen rope that one hopped the 400 foot sign in dead center. 2nd inning . . . wow. It cleared the 400 foot sign in dead center, over the second row of billboards, over the American flagpole and disappeared into the trees. It wouldn't surprise me if one or two of those trees were lying on their sides. My friend said that was the longest home run he's ever seen and I have to agree. Tom Milone started and scattered 6 hits in 6 1/3. Didn't seem dominant just very efficient.

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