Just stop please

Gio Gonzalez????

I won't say more than to point out Gio's #3 comp thru age 25 is Ernie Broglio. Check your history book to find out how that worked out for the Cubs.

both his 200 ip seasons feature 90+ walks and a 1.3+ whip. FIP and xFIP all significantly higher than the headline numbers we'll be BS'd with if he comes here.

Sure it's the AL but he pitches in an extreme pitchers park.

Why would you trade three or four lottery tickets for a mediocre 26 year old?

When you could have simply opened the checkbook and gotten a potential ace?

I know why and it doesn't give me a lot of confidence in the future.

Preparing to be bitterly disappointed

How Much Would Yu Pay for Jordan Zimmermann? | FanGraphs Baseball:

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I'm glad someone did this. I have neither the time nor the talent to do this through a job.

If you don't want to click here's the nut: Darvish is worth nine figures.

Four current 25 year old comps: Yovani Gallardo, Felix Hernandez, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann.

His 21 year old comp: Shelby Miller.

20 wins above replacement just sitting there waiting for the Lerner's to stroke one check. OK two checks.

Is this the first of many times the folly of the Werth deal comes back to haunt this franchise?

I don't look forward to Yu's Ranger debut. Nor do I look forward to his post-season starts.

Wilson Ramos 4th and Danny Espinosa 6th in NL Rookie of the Year Voting | November

Wilson Ramos 4th and Danny Espinosa 6th in NL Rookie of the Year Voting | November:

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This is the most encouraging news for Washington baseball fans since 2005.

One of the main goals of 2011 was to find out if the young players just reaching the big leagues could be relied on going forward.

Answer in re Espinosa and Ramos Yes.

That's two up the middle players (which are the hardest to find) in the hands of players the Nats control for the next 5 years. Incredibly valuable.

Still need to decide if Desmond is the long term answer at SS and of course that gaping hole in CF. Based on what we've seen so far this offseason, it won't be easy to fill that hole. Just don't panic and do something stupid Mike.

At least it may be possible to go back to the Twins well now that the GM who gave us Ramos for Capps is gone.

An exercise for me. What questions do I believe remain for 2012.

1) CF -- who will play there?

2) Starting pitching -- How many IP can Strasburg stand? Who's the 5th guy? Can we count on Lannan and Wang? Will Yu get posted and will the Nats take a run at him? (I know my answer and I know their answer but I can hope)

3) LOOGY -- don't have one. I am sure Davey J. loves matching up in the late innings and really wants a lefty killer.

4) Bench -- the Matt Stairs experiment failed. Who will fill the Terry Crowley role in 2012? (Sit on his A$$ for 8 innings enjoy the ballgame like any fan and come up in the 9th and knock one out)

5) Zimmerman long term. If the Lerner's aren't spooked by Matt Kemp's new contract, they should be. Zim's going to command a premium going forward and unless you want to be in the Prince Fielder situation the sooner a decision is made the better.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ken Rosenthal (ken_rosenthal) on Twitter:

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DON"T JUMP MIKE! YOU HAVE A LOT TO LIVE FOR. ONE OF THOSE THINGS IS NOT GIVING 8 FIGURE A YEAR CONTRACTS TO RELIEVERS!!!!!!

I was much happier with Rizzo on Jim Bo's twitter feed . . . focused on the starter and the CF. That's where you need to be Mike.

Who might Nats pursue in free agency?

Who might Nats pursue in free agency?:

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The pickins' is slim. They are all available for a reason. Some like Grady Sizemore are severe injury risks while others like Coco Crisp are just overrated.

I've discussed Sizemore before and I think the same question is there. If the Nats believe they are a serious contender in 2012, can they take a chance that their #1 need, a starting CF/leadoff man, will only play 30 games?

It didn't matter all that much that Adam LaRoche went down. But as we all know, its much easier to find a decent corner infielder than a high OBP CF leadoff man. Putting your faith in Sizemore's busted knees would be a huge gamble which if they held up would be great but would sink the season if it doesn't.

As I said before, taking a chance on a player like Sizemore would be an easy call. Absolutely you do it since the downside would be a couple more losses and better draft position. Now, the downside might be loss of a chance to contend and a step backwards.

I won't go into great detail right now but I am firmly in the camp that says if Yu Darvish is available then he is the one guy who it makes sense to go after hard.

One thing I will say is: Darvish is NOT a Japanese pitcher. He's 6' 5" 220lbs. He's half Iranian. He cannot and should not be compared to any Japanese pitcher before him.

In addition, Darvish is 25, younger than most imports from the Far East and has not been worked nearly as hard.

I invite you to check out Darvish's numbers from his NPL career. Remember that the NPL is roughly equal to AA. If a 6' 5" 220 20 year old threw 200 IP in AA ball with a sub 2 ERA and a nearly 9k/9 he'd be the top pitching prospect in all of baseball.

Since then Darvish has thrown 200 innings four times. But not significantly more than 200. In other words, he's broken in. Young pitchers that get to their late 20's with no significant arm injuries after strong workloads tend to stay injury free. I'd put way more faith in Darvish staying healthy and effective than any other FA pitcher out there.

Unfortunately, its not clear yet if Darvish will even be available. And if so, can the Nats outbid the Yankees or the Rangers. I should say would they because they certainly COULD since monetary resources should not be a problem.

While Zuckerman mentioned B.J. Upton as a trade target, I think another young CF should be thrown into this pile as a trade target.

Lorenzo Cain is 25 and now stuck behind Melky Cabrera in KC. He's a plus defender and he's improved his on base skills tremendously over the last few seasons. He's expendable to the Royals but I'm sure would cost at least 2 good prospects. To get a younf CF/leadoff guy who could grow with the rest of your young players it's worth it to at least offer say Brad Peacock and Steve Lombardozzi and see if that gets the job done.

Can Jayson Werth screw the Nats in the offseason too?

Ryan Madson? No. Just say No.

Madson is a very good pitcher. He will probably continue to be a very good pitcher. But he is NOT worth what he will command on the open market to the Nationals.

So Jayson unless you speak Japanese, please DON'T HELP!

The most important decision of the offseason

Central Notes: Ventura, Ordonez, Sizemore, Epstein: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com:

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Since baseball came back to Washington, it has been at least in my eyes an easy call to say this team is on the downside of the win cycle. Moves need to be made with an eye to X, Y or Z years out and patching holes with overpriced FA or desperation trades would be a major mistake.

That cannot be said this offseason.

80 wins with a team that was essentially at the end of the season an 80- win team means the organization must make the all-important decision this off season: is it time to operate as a winning franchise, a contender or are we still in the building phase?

Normally, I would say this team is still in the building phase. I'm pessimistic by nature anyway.

But a GM can't be bound by such things. A clear eyed assessment of the situation is what is called for.

I'm struck by this when I consider one of the items in the piece linked above. It regards one of the principles in what I consider the original sin of the National franchise: the Bartolo Colon trade.

Grady Sizemore is going to be non-tendered. My immediate reaction was to say: Grab him. Roll the dice on those stitched together knees because he'd be exactly what you needed: a high OBP CF to leadoff.

But then I wondered if such a gamble befits a team that actually is trying to contend? Should a team with aspirations of at least contending for the playoffs go into the season counting on the spit and bailing wire holding Sizemore's knees together?

And that's the dilemma. To contend or not contend. I always assumed that it would be an easy call. The tipping point would be easily apparent.

Aside from the Sizemore conundrum, I read something about how the Nats weren't even comparable to the four teams left playing right now. That got me to thinking, if the Nationals and the Tigers were merged, who would have more important players:

OPS+ for hitters and ERA + for pitchers

C Alex Avila 143 Wilson Ramos 113

1B Miguel Cabrera 181 Mike Morse 147

2B Ramon Santiago 89 Danny Espinosa 102

SS Jhonny Peralta 123 Ian Desmond 80

3B Brandon Inge 51 Ryan Zimmerman 118

LF Brennan Boesch 117 Laynce Nix 103

CF Austin Jackson 89 Rick Ankiel 81

RF Magglio Ordonez 74 Jayson Werth 97

DH Victor Martinez 132 Roger Bernadina 92

SP Justin Verlander 170 Jordan Zimmermann 122

SP Max Scherzer 92 John Lannan 104

SP Rick Porcello 86 Chien Mein Wang 96

SP Brad Penny 77 *Stephen Strasburg 261

CL Jose Valverde 183 Drew Storen 141

RP Phil Coke 92 Tyler Clippard 211

RP Joaquin Benoit 139 Henry Rodriguez 109

Daniel Schlereth 118 Todd Coffey 107

RP Al Alburquerque 220 Sean Burnett 103

That's 4 clear Tiger Winners 3 clear Nats winners and two toss ups. A lot closer than I would have suspected.

But look at the pitching.

Cancel out Verlander and who's got the better staff? And Marquis's ERA+ of 98 fills the Wang spot for the whole year. Given that talent pool wouldn't the next four starters after Verlander all be Nats?

Lets not forget that those Tiger starters pitched half their games in pitcher friendly Comerica Park so their low numbers aren't a fluke.

Its a lot closer than you think. Now the superstar status of Verlander and Cabrera skew it somewhat in Detroit's favor but that's why they are playing in October. They aren't that much better all across the board.

Is 2012 the year to go for it? I'm glad I don't have to make that choice. I just get to criticize it if its wrong.