I won't say more than to point out Gio's #3 comp thru age 25 is Ernie Broglio. Check your history book to find out how that worked out for the Cubs.
both his 200 ip seasons feature 90+ walks and a 1.3+ whip. FIP and xFIP all significantly higher than the headline numbers we'll be BS'd with if he comes here.
Sure it's the AL but he pitches in an extreme pitchers park.
Why would you trade three or four lottery tickets for a mediocre 26 year old?
When you could have simply opened the checkbook and gotten a potential ace?
I know why and it doesn't give me a lot of confidence in the future.
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Who would you rather have? A cy young winner with a proven track record of success, or a relative unknown who has never thrown a MLB pitch but who has dominated AAA-level talent?
ReplyDeleteBecause that's the $120M dollar question. $120M is what Darvish likely costs in both posting fee and contract. That's more than Cliff Lee got, that's more than CC Sabathia got.
THAT is why the Nats didn't bother bidding; they knew what it would take and didn't want the risk. Neither would I. Darvish is "just the next big thing" coming out of Japan, faced with a slew of guys before him who turned out to be .500 pitchers when all was said and done.
No, Gonzalez isn't the answer either, and I'm betting that Rizzo values his signees enough to not pull the trigger on a Latos deal (a ridiculously one sided deal for the Padres, by the way... two close-to-the-majors first rounders, plus a catcher, plus a starter for a guy who I wouldn't say is even in the top 30 pitchers in the game?) Ludicrous.
The real answer is NEXT offseason, when there's far more FA options. What we're seeing is a classic case of supply and demand; there's very little supply of quality arms, so the demand is sky high and the prices are showing it. The Nats need to be patient, bide their time, and focus on next year.
Remember "the plan?" Well the plan has gotten us 10 game improvements two years running, as our offense has tanked. With the exact same rotation (but replacing mediocre Marquis and Livan starts with Strasburg and possibly Oswalt) and a bit of added offense this team is a playoff contender.