Oh a whole load of disjointed thoughts

INTERNET BASEBALL WRITERS ASSOCIATION: Washington, D.C. Chapter: DC-Internet Baseball Writers Association Announce 2011 Player Achievement Awards:

'via Blog this'

I voted. And I pretty much followed the final voting. I wasn't Tyler Clippard's first place vote for MVP but I am responsible for some of his 24 points.

The only winner I didn't back was Danny E. in the defensive player of the year award. I went with sheer watchability and voted for Rick Ankiel. I would favorite a You Tube compilation of just his OF assists this year.

As for yesterday, I sort of tuned out after watching Strasburg humiliate one Marlin after another. Anything I missed?

Really, you think Bud Selig is giving the up yours to all the critics of the Wild Card today? He should.

After M.Texeria's grand slam, I flipped over to a combination of the Braves/Phillies and the Man U/Basel Champions League match. Who knew that a injury time goal by goliath Man U to salvage a draw with a Davidesque Basel would be such a tiny footnote to the evening.

Here's some mathmatical perspective on the events of last night courtesy of Nate Silver:

The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let’s put all of them together in sequence:

The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.

The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.

The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.

The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.

Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way.

Couldn't ask for a better way to lead into the playoffs for baseball. I'll be interested in seeing if this doesn't boost ratings at least for the division series (although the whole Boston market is OUT I'm sure.)

Been remiss is chronicling my MASN blogger day trip. So here's the condensed version:

1. The ball sounds different in BP when it comes off the bat of Michael Morse and Ryan Zimmerman. I know that seems obvious but it made me wonder exactly why? Were they stronger? Were their swings just able to generate more bat speed? Are they more adept at making optimal contact? Nevertheless, you can tell a power hitter just by the sound of the contact in BP. I'm eagerly anticipating hearing Bryce Harper take BP one day.

2. Davey Johnson is a teacher. For most of the BP session, Davey was talking one on one with players, teaching, demonstrating, basically passing on knowledge. Some people like to do that and some don't. For a young team, that has to be a plus. And Davey didn't just spend time with his best players, he was teaching to everyone on the roster.

3. The dessert cart in the club level is beyond description. Just a sugar orgy on wheels.

80 wins. I have to say that I am surprised. I guess we have the whole off season to examine this season and see exactly why this 70 win team in April ended up ten wins better. And it's not all Mike Morse because the difference between Adam LaRoche's prediction and Morse's is close to the difference between Jayson Werth's prediction and actual just in the other direction. Maybe its all Tyler Clippard?

M. Rizzo -- my 2 cents. Take the next month off. Just go sit on a beach and have waiters bring you tropical cocktails until Halloween. For two reasons. First, you'll grind the other 11 months of the years and Second, I'd rather not have to pay for a fluky post-season performance in the FA market over the winter. It would be better if you just didn't even see it.

Then come Nov. 1 it's back to work with just two goals for this offseason:

1) Speedy McLeadoff CF

2) Shape the rotation after SS and JZ.

Nationals Spend Big In Draft: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Nationals Spend Big In Draft: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Well it certainly took them long enough.

What's to say . . . they are building an organization through the amateur draft. That's the strategy. We've seen it now for two straight years going well over slot wherever and whenever possible. What's not to like. Assuming Rizzo and his staff are good at their jobs, there will be a plethora of talent rising through the system, maturing at around the same time. It's almost textbook.

Since I can't write anything negative about the signings, let me just pour my venom on the coverage.

First, it took ZERO skill as a talent scout to pick Strasburg or Harper. So please, let's leave them out of any draft/scouting discussion. You would need an Omar-level amount of incompetence to have screwed those two picks up. They are not the result of any "focus on the draft" or "emphasis on development" those two are the result of two hundred loss seasons. Or sucking at the big league level which is not a skill.

Also, please this strategy is but two years old. It was no where to be seen in '09. I don't care if the Nats spent a record amount in the '09 draft or not, they had not yet committed to this strategy at that time. That's why they didn't take any over slot signing later in that draft. Most reports gloss over this fact when they talk about the Nats draft history. '09 was Strasburg and a lot of $2 scratchers.

All that said, its a lot brighter today if you are a Nats fan and are waiting to see meaningful baseball played in the Nation's capital.

Lessons from the signing deadline - The GM's Office by Jim Bowden Blog - ESPN

Lessons from the signing deadline - The GM's Office by Jim Bowden Blog - ESPN

So it was as we always suspected . . . the Crow "debacle" was more the Hendrick's than JimBo.

Assuming his timeline is correct, his opening offer was not a joke and he showed a lot of flexibility (and some restraint for not straight up laughing in their faces when they said $9m).

The final number of $3.5 has always been the alleged high point and JimBo confirms it. More than Matusz, the biggest bonus for any pitcher in that draft, more than the position player taken right ahead of him . . . the Crow "debacle" is clearly a debacle for Crow not the Nats.

He got half a million less a year later. He's a year farther away from arbitration costing him more and he's nothing more than a bullpen arm . . . which the Nats got for $2 million less a year later.

Moral: you don't always have to make the deal. JimBo's non-deals with Crow and the Twins for Soriano are two fantastic examples of why the bias toward action is just that a bias.

FJB: OMG! He Threw His Helmet!!

FJB: OMG! He Threw His Helmet!!

Saving me minutes of research, the correct response to the latest overhyped Harpermania can be found above!

Pay up.

From today's chat with BA's Jim Callis:

John (Richmond, VA): Any updates on Nats picks Purke, Turnbull, Buchanon, and Laxer? Thank you.

Jim Callis: I don't think Purke is going to sign for less than he turned down of high school, so I don't think he's going to sign. He's competitive enough to take his chances of returning to full health, which could make him the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft. Turnbull is slow going so far, but I bet the Nats sign him. I see Buchanan and Laxer as backup problems in case they don't get Rendon, Meyer or Goodwin signed at the top of the draft. Those three might cost a combined $10 million (counting salaries in a big league deal for Rendon), but I bet they sign all three.

That should be a sure thing bet. There would be no point to getting draft pick compensation and then NOT signing the picks.

But what would chap my hide is not shelling out for Purke now. Later in the chat, Purke is mentioned as a potential #1 overall pick in 2012. And all it will cost you is $$$$$$$. I point to the fact that the Nats payroll is at least $40 million less than it should be based on the size of the media market they play in. So, giving Purke $4 million and walking away with a potential top of the draft pitcher seems to be an easy call. Write the check.

I understand the risk involved. It is more likely that Purke never develops into an All Star, its very likely that he never develops into a major league average starter. But there is a chance he develops into a top of the rotation ace. Try and get one of them, just try. Even if you can, it will cost an order of magnitude more than $4 million. Its a risk worth taking gentlemen.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2011/2612182.html

MLB's Most Lopsided Midseason Trades Ever | ThePostGame

MLB's Most Lopsided Midseason Trades Ever | ThePostGame

Warning: It's a slideshow. So you don't have to click through it's 10th. Which is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy to low. 3rd at least. Brock for Broglio and Anderson for Bagwell are landmarks of bad trades. Other than that, I don't see it even being close.

So congrats TWGMOBB!

Heyman still a D-Bag

Rangers lead trade deadline winners, Nationals are biggest loser - Jon Heyman - SI.com

No. 1 on the losers list? Really? Because they didn't overpay for Denard Span or B.J. Upton? Maybe they should have been in on Colby Rasmus (but weren't since that would have cost $$$$$).

But the real kicker is the old "They didn't trade Soriano or Dunn" BS.

Hey D-Bag Heyman -- Ever heard of Jordan Zimmermann? Know where he came from? I didn't think so. Well I'll tell you. He was taken with a compensatory pick awarded to the Nats for the FA signing of Soriano.

Now, tell me who did the Twins get when they traded Johan Santana? Phil Humber was the centerpiece. So making a deal isn't always the right move. Of course since you are a sportswriter you have a bias for immediate action over carefully considered long term planning which is BORING right?

Didn't trade Dunn -- well Alex Meyers and Brian Goodwin is a pretty good haul (or their signable replacements in next year's draft).

They didn't give up much of anything for Gomes and in theory he fits well with Laynce Nix as a very productive LF platoon. So what's wrong with that?

And getting anything of value for Jerry Hairston Jr. alone should warrant a winner tag. Nats got a potential 4th OF -- not exciting but a guy who could fill a role on a good team.

No, the Nats didn't make a game changing deal at the deadline. One wasn't available.

Bowden's gone Jon. Whatever slight he inflicted on you is in the past. Move on.