Friday, December 3, 2010

I want to believe

The Inexplicable Non-Tender | FanGraphs Baseball

I really do. It seems so logical, burdened with the worst GM in baseball (Omar) and then Captain Leatherpants, the Nats finally had a GM who knew baseball and knew what he was doing.

Today, I'm shaken a little and it isn't because of:

Adam Dunn --- I can understand why they wouldn't give him the fourth year. Look at Todd Helton's 30s or the current FA and possible replacement Lance Berkman. There's a pretty good chance years three or four of that deal could look real bad.

So, you've saved the cash. Now, let me see what you are going to do with it.

A one or two year deal for Carlos Pena or Adam LaRoche would tell me they expect Marrero or Norris to be the 1B of the future. Let's hope that pans out. It's a risk but a reasonable one.

Remember folks, without SS, 2011 was going to be another lean year in Natstown anyway. So the first year of a Dunn deal would have been a waste. And years three and four wold potentially be blocking younger players from developing at the MLB level.

So i can accept this decision.

I can't accept Joel Peralta.

This is stupid on a hundred levels. Dave Cameron gives you the numbers, both saber and dollars.

Look at what the going rate for relievers is. A cost controlled Peralta would at least have been a valuable trade chip, perhaps a throw in to a bigger deal to sweeten the pot or save a prize prospect.

Stick him the closer role out of ST and if he performs, another Matt Capps deal becomes possible.

Now, not at all. You use the one commodity you have in abundance (major league appearances) and create value from nothing. Then instead of cashing in, you fold. Why?

Saw somewhere else in Natmosphere the w/l record for the team the last six years. The point was: look at how they have regressed from 81 wins the first year to back to back 59 win seasons and a mere 69 last season.

Allow me to retort: The disastrous drafts of 2000-2003 left this franchise with no cheap controllable talent. A high schooler taken in 2000 is 28 this year. IOW, in his baseball prime.

Ian Desmond was a high school pick way back in 2004 I think. And he just made an impact at the ML level last year. It takes time to grow and nurture a farm system. The farm was left unattended by MLB when they ran the franchise and we're paying the price.

Now, you could argue they could have overcome this by opening the checkbook and filling the gaps with overpaid mediocrities. I'll just say they would have had to make a lot of moves come out exactly right to build a contender here over any of the last six years. And the Nats weren't exactly being run by Branch Rickey.

Whether they have fixed the drafting problem will be told quite a few years down the road.

Second: those twin 59 win seasons? They equal Strasburg and Harper.

The baseball world is salivating over Justin Upton and rightfully so. How did the D-backs get him? A 53 win season. The Nats picked two pretty good years to suck worse than other teams in baseball and now there is the promise of cheap controllable talent way outperforming their salaries in the 2013-2015 window.

Throwing away Peralta means one less asset to use to collect talent for that window. And if this team won't spend internationally, they need all the assets they can get.

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