Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Nationals Baseball: The Greinke Options

Nationals Baseball: The Greinke Options

First, you really overvalue the baseball trade market. Look at what recent pitchers better than Grienke went for:

Roy Oswalt for J.A. Happ outfielder Anthony Gose and shortstop Jonathan Villar.

Seriously, J.A. Happ and two unknown prospects. A finesse lefty and two not even close to ML ready prospects. And that was during the season when teams are supposed to be bidding wildly for starters.

Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke, and second baseman/outfielder Matt Lawson. Smoak is a ML ready guy but his rookie year didn't set the world on fire now did it. And Leuke's some kind of criminal! Throw in two other unknowns and you have the modern day Sandy Koufax!

Point being, the trade market isn't what you think it is. Remember this: the team that gets Grienke also gets his financial obligation . . .two years $27m which the Royals would now not have to pay. That's an additional asset to the Royals which drives down the prospect cost.

So your Options A & B are ludicrous. Never happen. Nor should they.

Would the Royals look askance at a Norris, Espinosa, Milone package? I think not. It doesn't contain a certifiable breakout star but it does contain three pieces almost certain to help you on the major league level for the next five to six years at minimal cost too.

It would come down to what the Royals wanted. Do they want one prime near ML ready prospect and couple of lottery tickets or do they want a solid return on investment across several prospects? Might be surprised what Dayton Moore would do.

1 comment:

  1. Its not pitching they need so much as some bats. I am sick of the 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 losses.

    Other than Over-priced free agents, are there any outfielders that small market teams need to unload?