Monday, December 21, 2009

Don't take it from me

I fully endorse the opinion here:

General manager Mike Rizzo has seemingly made paying premium prices for veteran mediocrity a priority this offseason, which is an odd use of resources and playing time for a team that isn't anywhere close to contending. Ninety-five losses or bust!

Two years $15m. At least Marquis is a Type B and won't cost a draft pick.

So, Marquis is unmovable in '10. At least without picking up that 2nd year. And will he fetch a prospect at the deadline in '11? Only if he pitches with the same horseshoe up his ass for the next 18 months as he did last year (which is highly unlikely).

So, for $15m, we get two years of league average pitching. (Career ERA+ of 99!) with virtually no chance of creating any long term value. Don't cite his 4.04 Era in '09. FIP is closer to 4.70 squarely in the soggy center and far more likely to be his '10 result based on his tiny K/9 totals.

Will the '10 & '11 team be better? Yes. Marginally. Is that worth something? Sure it is.

But this deal will be an absolute loser IF it precludes other moves like signing international FAs like Chapman or going over slot up and down the '10 draft (not just for the #1 overall like in '09). The same can (and should) be said for the Pudge deal.

Don't think this $21m means jack squat. It's not my fault you wanted to waste this cash on mediocre veterans. It doesn't get you off the hook from spending money to make the team better long term.


  1. So what should they have done? Gone after Lackey?

    The Nats are going to have to overpay and get less until they prove to the baseball world they're serious. At least Marquis isn't the type to get hurt every year or so.


  2. I disagree about the "suck" tax. Who gets a hometown discount? The Phils didn't with Cliff Lee. Lee's going to go where the money is as are most players. You want a guy, pay for him.

    I only oppose the Marquis signing in the sense of the front office believing that it represents something tangible long term. It doesn't. The $15m will most likely not lead to any long term success. No new prospects, no league average innings for a team on the fringe of the playoff picture. Nothing.

    I can live with that. Who wants the historically bad '09 repeat? However, it should not replace spending NOW for assets that will pay off long term. International FA's, injury discounts and salary dumps should still be in play and the $21m already spent should not preclude even ONE of these moves.

    That's the MO of this bunch (see the '09 draft).

    Now that I think of it, its basically the pitching equal of signing Adam Dunn. Dunn makes the team better now but do we really care about that? Of course, Dunn will have trade value this deadline while Marquis likely won't certainly not this year and most likely not next year either.