I have no complaints

The Goessling Game: A discussion on Roger Bernadina

How much fun can you have, how much passion can you muster when at base I agree with nearly everything the Nationals are doing this spring.

I've written in the past one easily correctable problem for the team was a serious lack of power on the bench. I also pointed out how easy it would be to fix it. And lo and behold, that's exactly what they did.

I don't have a problem with sending the Shark down in favor of Ankiel. Roger doesn't appear to be the answer in CF but it would be nice to find out for sure. Having him play everyday at Syracuse (and be an excellent call up in case of injury) seems to me to indicate a much deeper organization, one that doesn't have to reach for the Mench's of the world when injuries strike.

No, Ankiel isn't the answer either. He's just a mercenary and unless he has some incredible luck, his AB's will be useless for the long term health of the organization. In other words, I doubt seriously he makes himself valuable enough to trade in July.

Stashing Rodriguez and Ramirez on the DL -- savvy moves. Both could be assets and it would be stupid to give up on either one in favor of Todd Coffey. Keeping Brian B. again a savvy move. Generating potential value from essentially a useless roster spot (mop up man).

Trading Nyjer -- same thought as Roger. Nyjer wasn't the answer in CF that was clear. Having him hanging around even in Syracuse wasn't worth it either. He was who we thought he was and that isn't good enough for his sub par OBP and anger management issues. And getting what looks to be a potentially useful player, albeit one with an Alex Cora like ceiling is a bonus.

Trading Gonzalez -- again nice. Turned playing time from 2010 into an asset for the longer term. Without A-Gonz's ABs last year, do you think he'd have any value? He'd be like a hundred other AAAA utility infielders. But since GMs had the chance to see him and see him perform well in that role, he had value which could be cashed in.

Not that any of these moves on the roster fringes will propel the Nationals into contention but they show a consistent pattern of evaluations based on not just the next ball game but for a longer term. A Plan if you will. And its a plan I like.

Sure it would be nice to have an ace pitcher or a defensive wizard CF with a high OBP but those are two of the toughest commodities to find in baseball. I'd rather paste over those holes than try and talk myself into overpaid average players in those roles. If and when one becomes available, it will be easy and painless to put them in the lineup.

Sure the starting pitching and the on-base problems loom large. But they are finally getting the small things right. And that usually leads to the larger things going right eventually.

2011 Organizational Rankings: #24 – Washington | FanGraphs Baseball

2011 Organizational Rankings: #24 – Washington | FanGraphs Baseball

Not a through analysis but a few off the top of my head observations:

Financial Resources: 75 (T-20) -- This is absurdly low. 7th largest media market combined with the richest owner in North American team sports means there should be no dearth of financial resources. If this refers to spending already made, then I understand this rating. Oh boy do I understand it.

"Chances are the team’s ability to draw high level players will trend more with team record and team willingness to spend than anything else."

This is his conclusion to the "We signed Werth to attract other FA to come to Washington."

In that the theory behind signing Jayson Werth in the first place was to win more, the two go hand in hand. If Werth does his job and the Nats win more, then more players will want to play there. Especially since they have vast untapped resources at their disposal. Which came first? To me, the winning is far more important than the spending so I agree here.

Chides the Nats for not trading Dunn at the deadline last year. Thinks they could have done better than the #23 pick and the #35 pick. Maybe, that is speculation. Getting prospects is only slightly less risky than the draft. Would you rather have Kevin Slowey or Jordan Zimmermann? That's the breakdown from the Soriano non-deal. Looks like a big fat winner for the draft pick to me.

“given his dealings with the incredibly expensive first overall picks he’s had to sign the last two years, the team is willing to spend, spend, spend on the draft for now”

This is the fly in the draft ointment. This statement is untrue if you focus on 2009 but true for 2010. The draft strategy only makes sense if the team is willing to follow 2010 and overpay for talent rather than the signable 2009 disaster. Going signable for #23 and #35 would kind of defeat the purpose of the Dunn gamble.

I won’t even waste another electron on international signings (Maya withstanding) except to say there has been ZERO other evidence this team is seriously engaged internationally. Bring me the arm of Yu Darvish this offseason and we can’t forget all this.

Really can’t argue with 24^th. Only real positive note right now is if you include SS, you have two potential franchise players in the system. Most teams don’t have one. We really can’t say in only two years if the current organization is adept and developing the talent at hand. It won’t be long though when all of JimBo’s picks are gone and we’ll be left with these guys scouting and development track record on the line.

Nationals are due some luck on their ‘question marks’ - The Washington Post

Nationals are due some luck on their ‘question marks’ - The Washington Post

I can't find it and I just don't have the time to do it again but trust me: Mike Morse is no Jayson Werth. Morse's best minor league seasons don't compare to Werth's from any angle.

Is it possible Morse has just figured it out? Sure, I guess. Is there any statistical evidence to back that up? No. Some guys have great minor league numbers and then for one reason or another flame out at the big league level. Then a few years later, they blossom (usually for a short period of time) and they kind of "come out of no where."

Nothing in Morse's profile screams productive regular. That doesn't mean he won't be a productive regular in left this year. Clearly he's won the lion's share of the left field job. Should he replicate Willingham's production, this lineup would be miles better.

Right now, you have to think the RF/1B combo will be about the same as 2010 with just the proportions changed. CF about the same, 3B and SS about the same as well. 2B and catcher should be improved so patching the expected loss in left means this lineup has the chance to be as good if not better than the 2010 version. Not something I expected.

Haven't had any luck? Really Mike. Livan!'s 2010 wasn't a heaping pile of steaming luck?

Meathook's one good year wasn't a bag of horseshoes? Morgan's 2009?

Perhaps the "luck" has been to little and too far between but its been there. Management hasn't been proactive enough in capitalizing on that luck -- selling it high when it had the chance. Points for cashing in on Capps's "luck". That's the way it should be done.

Watched most of the Saturday ST game on MASN. Was not immediately blown away by F.P. Sounded like every other former player in the booth -- can't really remember anything useful he added. That alone is an improvement over Dibble.

Two Words

Nats Agree To Terms With 14 International Prospects: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

F&^$ and Yes!

Harper to Center Field? Music to my ears « Nationals Arm Race

Harper to Center Field? Music to my ears « Nationals Arm Race

I wholehearedly agree. When you really look at that list of CF's, it makes perfect sense.

And Harper wouldn't have to hit 40 HR's to be useful. Most of those guys are just like Nyjer, no power and no OBP ability. We're assuming Bryce will be a plus OBP guy aren't we?

Right now, we have above league average production in two places: 3B and RF. The problem with that is: league average is higher there than for the up the middle positions. You get a better spread, a bigger advantage if your best guys play positions where everybody else has punch and judy hitters. Harper in CF would be one of those extra plus guys.

So, our old friend Elijah lets us know he got baked before games. Not surprising I suppose. If the team was covering up for him when they said his release was "performance" related I can understand that even empathize. The dick move would have been to say He's a pothead and we don't want him around anymore. I'm sure Elijah's lack of job offers tells you all you need to know about what was said behind the scenes.

MLB trade rumors publishes the news that the Nats made TWO international signings!

Here's the money quote:

The club remains hesitant to hand out massive signing bonuses like the one they gave 16-year-old Esmailyn Gonzalez, who really turned out to be 20-year-old Carlos Alvarez, in 2006. Excluding the Yunesky Maya major league deal, the Nationals spent about $1MM on signing bonuses for prospects in Latin America last year, one of the smallest budgets in the majors. Now, DiPuglia tells Kilgore, the club is starting to spend more on international players.

There is no excuse for this. That was three (now four) years ago. What is so hard about compiling a list of the 10 best Dominican or Venezuelan teenagers have a look see and then spreading around some cash? Since the Nats management has kept payroll far below what can reasonably be expected for a team in the 7th largest media market in the country (and first in percapita income) then they needed to show where the savings were going. This is the most cost effective way to develop assets. How many lottery tickets can you buy for one LoDuca?

I think the most interesting part of the spring for the Nats will be how the catching situation shakes out. They have two major league ready backstops and a future Hall of Famer. Then they have another one who is probably going to be better than them all on the fast track. Its the first time I can remember where the team has a genuine surplus of talent. And at a premium position. I assume Flores will start the year in Syracuse so he can play every day with Ramos slowly displacing Pudge as the year grinds on. In an ideal world, Flores plays well enough to create a trade market and no one gets hurt creating a perceived need to keep all of them around. Call the Rays Mike. They need catching and they have a boatload of talented prospects.

I also wonder if they will have the guts to keep the Ramirez kid they got in the Rule V draft over Todd Coffey. Coffey represents nothing, even at his best he might bring back a Shiron Martis while the kid may fail miserably or could turn into a controllable long term asset. Seems like an easy choice for a team on the low end of the success continuum but I'll bet I'm wrong.

I do hope they don't give up on Danny Espinosa too quickly. Its a near lock he'll have a subpar season with the stick, those hamate injuries for a baseball player are a killer. It's basically the hitters Tommy John surgery . . . it takes a year to heal before they are back to normal. Unless he really struggles with the leather, please keep running him out there. He may be punchless but at least he's getting seasoning. That's what 2011 is all about.

Nationals are one of two teams interested in Justin Duchscherer | January

Nationals are one of two teams interested in Justin Duchscherer | January

However with his past strong performances, he clearly qualifies as the "take a chance on me" type of arm that the Nationals have been all to familiar with over the past several seasons. But with the recent commitment to starting pitching the Nationals have had over the past two seasons, it's really hard to see how he fits in.

He fits in like this: If he pitches like 2008, he slots right behind J Zimm. If not, then he doesn't pitch at all.

Duke's upside is higher than everyone on the SP list except J Zimm. That alone is reason enough to give him a shot. What purpose does it serve long term to have Marquis or Livan! eat innings? They aren't going to command much at the deadline while a healthy and effective Duke might. And that's the goal, using your ability to give playing time to create long term assets. Now, I doubt they actually sign him but the idea is a good one.

Lots of prospect realted stuff coming out .. BA's list and Keith Law's list and so on. I note that two of the Nat's top 10 guys A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray were overslot later round signings. Hmmmm. So you are telling me its possible to make your prospect pipeline better by paying overslot? Wish the billionaire owners knew that in '08 or '09.

And please notice another top 10 overall prospect: Aroldis Chapman. All it would have taken was a few extra dollars that could have come out of the lower than necessary current payroll and boom two top 10 prospects.

UPDATE: Duke signed with Orioles. I'm not surprised. I just hope this means Rizzo is still looking.

Rizzo waves white flag on pitcher search

Nationals Baseball: Rizzo waves white flag on pitcher search

I don't consider the inability to acquire a #1 type starting pitcher this off season to be all that much in terms of importance.

The market was rail thin and the competition for those available was strong. Philly will regret the Lee deal eventually (can't wait till they are paying Howard and Lee staggering amounts for minimal production).

I can't castigate Philly for its choice -- they are playing for 2011 knowing the window is narrowing (Rollins, Utley and Howard aging and their best pitchers on the bad side of 30). IMHO, they made the right decision for them.

Brewers too. They have a chance in their division, they have Prince Fielder in the middle of their lineup for another year and they really didn't pay a huge price in prospects. And in 2 years they'll get two picks when Greinke leaves.

But what would either of these deals done for our Nats? Mostly it would have given them a "Champs of the offseason" title -- and we already have 10 or so of those banners flying over at Fed Ex field. No replacement for playoff wins.

The 2011 season died the moment SS's elbow snapped. So once again, we have a season where the vital commodity is playing time. It should be used judiciously -- young players get seasoning and vets are showcased for trades. Nats need to know by the end of 2011 if Desmond's glove can be relied upon at short. Can Espinosa handle regular work at 2nd. Can Zimmermann handle 200 IPs and be a true #2 starter? Can Drew Storen handle closing chores? Is Wilson Ramos the catcher of the future? If he is, can they move Derek Norris to 1B and accelerate his ascent to the bigs? Or do they leave him at catcher and use him as a powerful trade chip in the 2011-2012 offseason (a catcher who can hit is a very valuable piece moreso than an OF or CI or RP).

The other task I'd give Rizzo for 2011 is to find a CF who can play defense and get on base. A true leadoff hitter is one gaping hole in the lineup right now and CF is the place where that guy can be added. Granted, aside from #1 starters, a CF who can do both those things is hard to come by. But you've got all this season to identify that guy (I am thinking you look in other organizations I have no confidence in Eury Perez) and you go get that guy.

By 2012, you hopefully have your MI sorted, have Strasburg back at the top of the rotation and have Harper banging on the door to be a third big bat. Also, you'd have considerable payroll flexibility to add an FA starter. Then you'll have the makings of a .500 club with aspirations of contention if luck goes your way.

True that a lot of things have to go right -- young players develop as expected (Harper, Desmond, Ramos, Espinosa Zimmermann) and the pocketbooks have to open but to my mind the way to contention is there. The only question is Will they have the discipline to stay on the road and will they get lucky enough to avoid any potholes (read injuries/regressions)?