Bang! Zoom!

Prince Fielder Nats Roundtable (With Bonus Prince Fielder Poll!) | Mr. Irrelevant, a D.C. Sports Blog by the Brothers Mottram

2012-01-19T13:19:00.000-08:00

Prince Fielder Nats Roundtable (With Bonus Prince Fielder Poll!) | Mr. Irrelevant, a D.C. Sports Blog by the Brothers Mottram:

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I wish I had something useful to add to this discussion of the Prince situation but I really don't.

1. The Werth deal is already an albatross . . . since there is a not insignificant chance Prince's deal also becomes an albatross that would almost crush the Nationals for the next 7-8 years! That's assuming the 4-5 years of sweating off all that salary and a few extra years just to rebuild from the flaming wreckage. If you think FA's were reluctant to go to DC before, imagine what they'd be like after another half decade of suck.

2. Have more cost-effective options in Morse and LaRoche short term and maybe Zimmerman long term. I'm a little less concerned about Zim having to move, Brooks Robinson was an excellent defensive 3B into his late 30s. Of course he won't be all world like he is now but he would at least not destroy the value of his bat through atrocious defense. If 2011 is Morse's real level of production going forward then that's a lot of cash for what would amount to a miniscule upgrade (Prince v. Morse 2012 only)

3. Shorter term is better. 5 years is better than 6. 10 is right out. We already have a front row seat to the destructive properties of such a mistake (watching the Phils flounder with Ryan Howard's contract)

On balance, I'd say pass. Mostly because any deal that would be palatable for the Nats would be a major disappointment to Prince. And I can imagine an unhappy Prince eating his way out of town right quick.

And even with Prince, it wouldn't solve the major offensive problem the Nats have . . . OBP at the top of the order.

Just stop please

2011-12-19T18:30:00.000-08:00

Gio Gonzalez????

I won't say more than to point out Gio's #3 comp thru age 25 is Ernie Broglio. Check your history book to find out how that worked out for the Cubs.

both his 200 ip seasons feature 90+ walks and a 1.3+ whip. FIP and xFIP all significantly higher than the headline numbers we'll be BS'd with if he comes here.

Sure it's the AL but he pitches in an extreme pitchers park.

Why would you trade three or four lottery tickets for a mediocre 26 year old?

When you could have simply opened the checkbook and gotten a potential ace?

I know why and it doesn't give me a lot of confidence in the future.

Preparing to be bitterly disappointed

2011-12-15T10:45:00.000-08:00

How Much Would Yu Pay for Jordan Zimmermann? | FanGraphs Baseball:

'via Blog this'

I'm glad someone did this. I have neither the time nor the talent to do this through a job.

If you don't want to click here's the nut: Darvish is worth nine figures.

Four current 25 year old comps: Yovani Gallardo, Felix Hernandez, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann.

His 21 year old comp: Shelby Miller.

20 wins above replacement just sitting there waiting for the Lerner's to stroke one check. OK two checks.

Is this the first of many times the folly of the Werth deal comes back to haunt this franchise?

I don't look forward to Yu's Ranger debut. Nor do I look forward to his post-season starts.

Wilson Ramos 4th and Danny Espinosa 6th in NL Rookie of the Year Voting | November

2011-11-14T12:47:00.000-08:00

Wilson Ramos 4th and Danny Espinosa 6th in NL Rookie of the Year Voting | November:

'via Blog this'

This is the most encouraging news for Washington baseball fans since 2005.

One of the main goals of 2011 was to find out if the young players just reaching the big leagues could be relied on going forward.

Answer in re Espinosa and Ramos Yes.

That's two up the middle players (which are the hardest to find) in the hands of players the Nats control for the next 5 years. Incredibly valuable.

Still need to decide if Desmond is the long term answer at SS and of course that gaping hole in CF. Based on what we've seen so far this offseason, it won't be easy to fill that hole. Just don't panic and do something stupid Mike.

At least it may be possible to go back to the Twins well now that the GM who gave us Ramos for Capps is gone.

An exercise for me. What questions do I believe remain for 2012.

1) CF -- who will play there?

2) Starting pitching -- How many IP can Strasburg stand? Who's the 5th guy? Can we count on Lannan and Wang? Will Yu get posted and will the Nats take a run at him? (I know my answer and I know their answer but I can hope)

3) LOOGY -- don't have one. I am sure Davey J. loves matching up in the late innings and really wants a lefty killer.

4) Bench -- the Matt Stairs experiment failed. Who will fill the Terry Crowley role in 2012? (Sit on his A$$ for 8 innings enjoy the ballgame like any fan and come up in the 9th and knock one out)

5) Zimmerman long term. If the Lerner's aren't spooked by Matt Kemp's new contract, they should be. Zim's going to command a premium going forward and unless you want to be in the Prince Fielder situation the sooner a decision is made the better.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2011-11-09T13:12:00.000-08:00

Ken Rosenthal (ken_rosenthal) on Twitter:

'via Blog this'

DON"T JUMP MIKE! YOU HAVE A LOT TO LIVE FOR. ONE OF THOSE THINGS IS NOT GIVING 8 FIGURE A YEAR CONTRACTS TO RELIEVERS!!!!!!

I was much happier with Rizzo on Jim Bo's twitter feed . . . focused on the starter and the CF. That's where you need to be Mike.

Who might Nats pursue in free agency?

2011-11-03T07:55:00.000-07:00

Who might Nats pursue in free agency?:

'via Blog this'

The pickins' is slim. They are all available for a reason. Some like Grady Sizemore are severe injury risks while others like Coco Crisp are just overrated.

I've discussed Sizemore before and I think the same question is there. If the Nats believe they are a serious contender in 2012, can they take a chance that their #1 need, a starting CF/leadoff man, will only play 30 games?

It didn't matter all that much that Adam LaRoche went down. But as we all know, its much easier to find a decent corner infielder than a high OBP CF leadoff man. Putting your faith in Sizemore's busted knees would be a huge gamble which if they held up would be great but would sink the season if it doesn't.

As I said before, taking a chance on a player like Sizemore would be an easy call. Absolutely you do it since the downside would be a couple more losses and better draft position. Now, the downside might be loss of a chance to contend and a step backwards.

I won't go into great detail right now but I am firmly in the camp that says if Yu Darvish is available then he is the one guy who it makes sense to go after hard.

One thing I will say is: Darvish is NOT a Japanese pitcher. He's 6' 5" 220lbs. He's half Iranian. He cannot and should not be compared to any Japanese pitcher before him.

In addition, Darvish is 25, younger than most imports from the Far East and has not been worked nearly as hard.

I invite you to check out Darvish's numbers from his NPL career. Remember that the NPL is roughly equal to AA. If a 6' 5" 220 20 year old threw 200 IP in AA ball with a sub 2 ERA and a nearly 9k/9 he'd be the top pitching prospect in all of baseball.

Since then Darvish has thrown 200 innings four times. But not significantly more than 200. In other words, he's broken in. Young pitchers that get to their late 20's with no significant arm injuries after strong workloads tend to stay injury free. I'd put way more faith in Darvish staying healthy and effective than any other FA pitcher out there.

Unfortunately, its not clear yet if Darvish will even be available. And if so, can the Nats outbid the Yankees or the Rangers. I should say would they because they certainly COULD since monetary resources should not be a problem.

While Zuckerman mentioned B.J. Upton as a trade target, I think another young CF should be thrown into this pile as a trade target.

Lorenzo Cain is 25 and now stuck behind Melky Cabrera in KC. He's a plus defender and he's improved his on base skills tremendously over the last few seasons. He's expendable to the Royals but I'm sure would cost at least 2 good prospects. To get a younf CF/leadoff guy who could grow with the rest of your young players it's worth it to at least offer say Brad Peacock and Steve Lombardozzi and see if that gets the job done.

Can Jayson Werth screw the Nats in the offseason too?

2011-10-17T18:59:00.000-07:00

Ryan Madson? No. Just say No.

Madson is a very good pitcher. He will probably continue to be a very good pitcher. But he is NOT worth what he will command on the open market to the Nationals.

So Jayson unless you speak Japanese, please DON'T HELP!

The most important decision of the offseason

2011-10-10T14:23:00.000-07:00

Central Notes: Ventura, Ordonez, Sizemore, Epstein: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com:

'via Blog this'

Since baseball came back to Washington, it has been at least in my eyes an easy call to say this team is on the downside of the win cycle. Moves need to be made with an eye to X, Y or Z years out and patching holes with overpriced FA or desperation trades would be a major mistake.

That cannot be said this offseason.

80 wins with a team that was essentially at the end of the season an 80- win team means the organization must make the all-important decision this off season: is it time to operate as a winning franchise, a contender or are we still in the building phase?

Normally, I would say this team is still in the building phase. I'm pessimistic by nature anyway.

But a GM can't be bound by such things. A clear eyed assessment of the situation is what is called for.

I'm struck by this when I consider one of the items in the piece linked above. It regards one of the principles in what I consider the original sin of the National franchise: the Bartolo Colon trade.

Grady Sizemore is going to be non-tendered. My immediate reaction was to say: Grab him. Roll the dice on those stitched together knees because he'd be exactly what you needed: a high OBP CF to leadoff.

But then I wondered if such a gamble befits a team that actually is trying to contend? Should a team with aspirations of at least contending for the playoffs go into the season counting on the spit and bailing wire holding Sizemore's knees together?

And that's the dilemma. To contend or not contend. I always assumed that it would be an easy call. The tipping point would be easily apparent.

Aside from the Sizemore conundrum, I read something about how the Nats weren't even comparable to the four teams left playing right now. That got me to thinking, if the Nationals and the Tigers were merged, who would have more important players:

OPS+ for hitters and ERA + for pitchers

C Alex Avila 143 Wilson Ramos 113

1B Miguel Cabrera 181 Mike Morse 147

2B Ramon Santiago 89 Danny Espinosa 102

SS Jhonny Peralta 123 Ian Desmond 80

3B Brandon Inge 51 Ryan Zimmerman 118

LF Brennan Boesch 117 Laynce Nix 103

CF Austin Jackson 89 Rick Ankiel 81

RF Magglio Ordonez 74 Jayson Werth 97

DH Victor Martinez 132 Roger Bernadina 92

SP Justin Verlander 170 Jordan Zimmermann 122

SP Max Scherzer 92 John Lannan 104

SP Rick Porcello 86 Chien Mein Wang 96

SP Brad Penny 77 *Stephen Strasburg 261

CL Jose Valverde 183 Drew Storen 141

RP Phil Coke 92 Tyler Clippard 211

RP Joaquin Benoit 139 Henry Rodriguez 109

Daniel Schlereth 118 Todd Coffey 107

RP Al Alburquerque 220 Sean Burnett 103

That's 4 clear Tiger Winners 3 clear Nats winners and two toss ups. A lot closer than I would have suspected.

But look at the pitching.

Cancel out Verlander and who's got the better staff? And Marquis's ERA+ of 98 fills the Wang spot for the whole year. Given that talent pool wouldn't the next four starters after Verlander all be Nats?

Lets not forget that those Tiger starters pitched half their games in pitcher friendly Comerica Park so their low numbers aren't a fluke.

Its a lot closer than you think. Now the superstar status of Verlander and Cabrera skew it somewhat in Detroit's favor but that's why they are playing in October. They aren't that much better all across the board.

Is 2012 the year to go for it? I'm glad I don't have to make that choice. I just get to criticize it if its wrong.

Oh a whole load of disjointed thoughts

2011-09-29T09:57:00.000-07:00

INTERNET BASEBALL WRITERS ASSOCIATION: Washington, D.C. Chapter: DC-Internet Baseball Writers Association Announce 2011 Player Achievement Awards:

'via Blog this'

I voted. And I pretty much followed the final voting. I wasn't Tyler Clippard's first place vote for MVP but I am responsible for some of his 24 points.

The only winner I didn't back was Danny E. in the defensive player of the year award. I went with sheer watchability and voted for Rick Ankiel. I would favorite a You Tube compilation of just his OF assists this year.

As for yesterday, I sort of tuned out after watching Strasburg humiliate one Marlin after another. Anything I missed?

Really, you think Bud Selig is giving the up yours to all the critics of the Wild Card today? He should.

After M.Texeria's grand slam, I flipped over to a combination of the Braves/Phillies and the Man U/Basel Champions League match. Who knew that a injury time goal by goliath Man U to salvage a draw with a Davidesque Basel would be such a tiny footnote to the evening.

Here's some mathmatical perspective on the events of last night courtesy of Nate Silver:

The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let’s put all of them together in sequence:

The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.
The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.
The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.
The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.

Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way.

Couldn't ask for a better way to lead into the playoffs for baseball. I'll be interested in seeing if this doesn't boost ratings at least for the division series (although the whole Boston market is OUT I'm sure.)

Been remiss is chronicling my MASN blogger day trip. So here's the condensed version:

1. The ball sounds different in BP when it comes off the bat of Michael Morse and Ryan Zimmerman. I know that seems obvious but it made me wonder exactly why? Were they stronger? Were their swings just able to generate more bat speed? Are they more adept at making optimal contact? Nevertheless, you can tell a power hitter just by the sound of the contact in BP. I'm eagerly anticipating hearing Bryce Harper take BP one day.

2. Davey Johnson is a teacher. For most of the BP session, Davey was talking one on one with players, teaching, demonstrating, basically passing on knowledge. Some people like to do that and some don't. For a young team, that has to be a plus. And Davey didn't just spend time with his best players, he was teaching to everyone on the roster.

3. The dessert cart in the club level is beyond description. Just a sugar orgy on wheels.

80 wins. I have to say that I am surprised. I guess we have the whole off season to examine this season and see exactly why this 70 win team in April ended up ten wins better. And it's not all Mike Morse because the difference between Adam LaRoche's prediction and Morse's is close to the difference between Jayson Werth's prediction and actual just in the other direction. Maybe its all Tyler Clippard?

M. Rizzo -- my 2 cents. Take the next month off. Just go sit on a beach and have waiters bring you tropical cocktails until Halloween. For two reasons. First, you'll grind the other 11 months of the years and Second, I'd rather not have to pay for a fluky post-season performance in the FA market over the winter. It would be better if you just didn't even see it.

Then come Nov. 1 it's back to work with just two goals for this offseason:

1) Speedy McLeadoff CF

2) Shape the rotation after SS and JZ.

Nationals Spend Big In Draft: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

2011-08-16T06:41:00.000-07:00

Nationals Spend Big In Draft: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Well it certainly took them long enough.

What's to say . . . they are building an organization through the amateur draft. That's the strategy. We've seen it now for two straight years going well over slot wherever and whenever possible. What's not to like. Assuming Rizzo and his staff are good at their jobs, there will be a plethora of talent rising through the system, maturing at around the same time. It's almost textbook.

Since I can't write anything negative about the signings, let me just pour my venom on the coverage.

First, it took ZERO skill as a talent scout to pick Strasburg or Harper. So please, let's leave them out of any draft/scouting discussion. You would need an Omar-level amount of incompetence to have screwed those two picks up. They are not the result of any "focus on the draft" or "emphasis on development" those two are the result of two hundred loss seasons. Or sucking at the big league level which is not a skill.

Also, please this strategy is but two years old. It was no where to be seen in '09. I don't care if the Nats spent a record amount in the '09 draft or not, they had not yet committed to this strategy at that time. That's why they didn't take any over slot signing later in that draft. Most reports gloss over this fact when they talk about the Nats draft history. '09 was Strasburg and a lot of $2 scratchers.

All that said, its a lot brighter today if you are a Nats fan and are waiting to see meaningful baseball played in the Nation's capital.

Lessons from the signing deadline - The GM's Office by Jim Bowden Blog - ESPN

2011-08-15T07:08:00.000-07:00

Lessons from the signing deadline - The GM's Office by Jim Bowden Blog - ESPN

So it was as we always suspected . . . the Crow "debacle" was more the Hendrick's than JimBo.

Assuming his timeline is correct, his opening offer was not a joke and he showed a lot of flexibility (and some restraint for not straight up laughing in their faces when they said $9m).

The final number of $3.5 has always been the alleged high point and JimBo confirms it. More than Matusz, the biggest bonus for any pitcher in that draft, more than the position player taken right ahead of him . . . the Crow "debacle" is clearly a debacle for Crow not the Nats.

He got half a million less a year later. He's a year farther away from arbitration costing him more and he's nothing more than a bullpen arm . . . which the Nats got for $2 million less a year later.

Moral: you don't always have to make the deal. JimBo's non-deals with Crow and the Twins for Soriano are two fantastic examples of why the bias toward action is just that a bias.

FJB: OMG! He Threw His Helmet!!

2011-08-12T10:38:00.000-07:00

FJB: OMG! He Threw His Helmet!!

Saving me minutes of research, the correct response to the latest overhyped Harpermania can be found above!

Pay up.

2011-08-03T13:12:00.000-07:00

From today's chat with BA's Jim Callis:

John (Richmond, VA): Any updates on Nats picks Purke, Turnbull, Buchanon, and Laxer? Thank you.

Jim Callis: I don't think Purke is going to sign for less than he turned down of high school, so I don't think he's going to sign. He's competitive enough to take his chances of returning to full health, which could make him the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft. Turnbull is slow going so far, but I bet the Nats sign him. I see Buchanan and Laxer as backup problems in case they don't get Rendon, Meyer or Goodwin signed at the top of the draft. Those three might cost a combined $10 million (counting salaries in a big league deal for Rendon), but I bet they sign all three.

That should be a sure thing bet. There would be no point to getting draft pick compensation and then NOT signing the picks.

But what would chap my hide is not shelling out for Purke now. Later in the chat, Purke is mentioned as a potential #1 overall pick in 2012. And all it will cost you is $$$$$$$. I point to the fact that the Nats payroll is at least $40 million less than it should be based on the size of the media market they play in. So, giving Purke $4 million and walking away with a potential top of the draft pitcher seems to be an easy call. Write the check.

I understand the risk involved. It is more likely that Purke never develops into an All Star, its very likely that he never develops into a major league average starter. But there is a chance he develops into a top of the rotation ace. Try and get one of them, just try. Even if you can, it will cost an order of magnitude more than $4 million. Its a risk worth taking gentlemen.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2011/2612182.html

MLB's Most Lopsided Midseason Trades Ever | ThePostGame

2011-08-02T14:21:00.000-07:00

MLB's Most Lopsided Midseason Trades Ever | ThePostGame

Warning: It's a slideshow. So you don't have to click through it's 10th. Which is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy to low. 3rd at least. Brock for Broglio and Anderson for Bagwell are landmarks of bad trades. Other than that, I don't see it even being close.

So congrats TWGMOBB!

Heyman still a D-Bag

2011-08-02T13:38:00.000-07:00

Rangers lead trade deadline winners, Nationals are biggest loser - Jon Heyman - SI.com

No. 1 on the losers list? Really? Because they didn't overpay for Denard Span or B.J. Upton? Maybe they should have been in on Colby Rasmus (but weren't since that would have cost $$$$$).

But the real kicker is the old "They didn't trade Soriano or Dunn" BS.

Hey D-Bag Heyman -- Ever heard of Jordan Zimmermann? Know where he came from? I didn't think so. Well I'll tell you. He was taken with a compensatory pick awarded to the Nats for the FA signing of Soriano.

Now, tell me who did the Twins get when they traded Johan Santana? Phil Humber was the centerpiece. So making a deal isn't always the right move. Of course since you are a sportswriter you have a bias for immediate action over carefully considered long term planning which is BORING right?

Didn't trade Dunn -- well Alex Meyers and Brian Goodwin is a pretty good haul (or their signable replacements in next year's draft).

They didn't give up much of anything for Gomes and in theory he fits well with Laynce Nix as a very productive LF platoon. So what's wrong with that?

And getting anything of value for Jerry Hairston Jr. alone should warrant a winner tag. Nats got a potential 4th OF -- not exciting but a guy who could fill a role on a good team.

No, the Nats didn't make a game changing deal at the deadline. One wasn't available.

Bowden's gone Jon. Whatever slight he inflicted on you is in the past. Move on.

Cheap Bastards Redux

2011-07-29T11:53:00.000-07:00

NL East Notes: Nationals, Marlins, Reyes: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

I can't swear by Jerry Crasnik's veracity. For all I know he may have made this up or been told it by some one with an axe to grind.

Because if he's right, then the CBs are back in charge.

$2.2 million. You want some team to give you a decent prospect and eat the money! Are you F*&$%^# Insane!

Here's the thing. YOU HAVE ALREADY SPENT THIS MONEY! Its not like you have to stroke a personal check you didn't expect. You were always going to have to pay this out.

For the last f*&^&*% time you are a big market club. I don't give an F about your current revenues and such. This is a big market, you are god damn BILLIONAIRES -- act like it! You eat that $2.2 million for breakfast to get a decent prospect. That's how you get better.

Besides, you are going to have to open the checkbook for Purke and Goodwin and Rendon and Meyers. Uh why hasn't that been done yet. And I won't rehash my utter disgust at the fact that you haven't made a single notable international signing AGAIN!

You flush $126 million down the toilet on Werth and now you are quibbling over this chump change? Man up. Or sell the team.

I know in theory it makes sense to trade a relief pitcher for an everyday CF given a rough equilibrium in salary and control. That doesn't make it easier to part with Drew Storen for Denard Span as much as the Twins people scream about how unfair it would be for them.

And yes Span in theory is exactly what they need and what I've been calling for them to find a CF with good OBP skills. An elusive creature no doubt. And he would be under contract till 2015 so he would in theory be part of team that was a contender. So as painful as it is to give up one of ours, its the right thing to do.

Although I will point out that you could have had BOTH Storen and your cost controlled leadoff CF had the CBs simply unclenched their wallets and ponied up for Leonsys Martin who is currently tearing through the Rangers system.

Or you could have had Colby Rasmus had you just been willing to eat Mark Teahan's $10 million. Todd Coffey and a B level pitcher plus that would have gotten it done.

Face it, you aren't getting what you want without paying up. Get over trying to star in Moneyball II, compete like the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Angels do: with big fat wallets.

Approaching the "boiling point"

2011-07-27T07:23:00.000-07:00

Nats Insider: Approaching the "boiling point"

My question is: Why? Why would anyone think this was really a .500 club?

I know they were for the first 100 games this season, a seeming impossibility with Ryan Zimmerman out for 50+ of them.

But they were (and are) at base the same 70 win team that left Viera in April. Three months of incredible luck shouldn't change long term perceptions (see 2005 for example)

Getting mad isn't the answer. It's pointless. They have played over their heads for most of the year and the fairy dust is starting to fade.

What's most troubling is this insistence that "we're not ready to punt this season" mentality. Admirable in some ways but if its more than a public posture then its the height of stupidity.

The 2011 edition of the Nationals is done. They aren't going to make a playoff run, they aren't even likely to finish over .500. Its time to think about next year and the years after that.

In terms of roster construction, Gomes is a great fit. He and Nix would make a near All-Star LF. Nix mashes RHP's .287/.321/.517 and Gomes mashes LHPs .333/.439/.537. (List of LFs with SLG over .500 right now Braun, Holliday, Hamilton (and Morse))

The one on the bench becomes a devastating late inning PH. And au revoir Matt Stairs. You were are good idea just not in practice.

They also got cash from the Reds too. Not a lot I'm sure, Gomes is only owed a little less than $500,000 for the rest of the year. They may be too clever by a half if they think they just bought a draft pick though -- its at least 50-50 Gomes accepts arbitration.

In the end, its not much of anything really. Maybe 2011 is a little better. Maybe they get a sandwich pick. Maybe they keep the Gomes/Nix platoon for 2012. Eh.

Now the real work.

Marquis needs to go. If for nothing else then to give his innings to someone with a future here. If they get replacements for Manno and Rhinehart so much the better. Based on a ll the chatter, Marquis should be somewhat valuable. No financial commitment after this year unlike say Wandy Rodriguez. He'll be cheaper in terms of prospect talent than Ubaldo and his higher upside and team friendly contract. But most of all, you could start Jason Marquis in a playoff game. You may not WANT to but you could. I don't think you can say that about the other easily available starters on the market.

I wouldn't say Marquis brings back a sure fire top 5 prospect. But he's worth something -- something with a high probability f being useful or with a low probability of being great.

But that's the get rid of half. The real franchise defining move is this pursuit of a CF.

First, lets be honest. If a young quality CF is available on the trade market there is a reason. They have flaws.

Upton's flaws are obvious -- he's more hype than production. The rays have to believe (and they've known him since he was 18) that he'll be another in a long line of uber talented athletes who never became baseball players. Nats would have to feel they can change him, make him a baseball player.

Rasmus is clearly out of favor in StL. Now being on Tony LaRussa's bad side isn't a total indictment but it does raise questions. And his on field performance is meh at best.

Span is a little older, a little less ceiling than Rasmus or Upton but perhaps the most dependable in terms of knowing what you are getting. Unlikely to be much better or worse than he's been. Not an ideal leadoff guy but you could do worse (and the Nats certainly have this year) not a lock down defender but good enough. Isn't a sucking chest wound but never going to be confused with an all star.

Upton's the high risk high reward move. I've advocated high risk/reward moves in the past so I'd have to say that's the way to go. Not sure I'd let Brad Peacock stand in the way of it either.

Finally, one note about the trade deadline. I am now resigned to the fact that every trade deadline will be an exercise is painful memories.

Why? Because the litany of trade deadline disasters now stands at Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz, Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell and . . . please I don't even want to mention it again but I'll just call it the "Never Forget" deal.

What's worse is the seeming indifference of these writers. The "oh wouldn't Nats fans be happy if . . . " OF COURSE WE WOULD. WHO WOULDNT WANT TO NOT BE ON THE END OF THE MOST STUPID LOPSIDED DEAL OF ALL TIME! THANK YOU VERY MUCH JACKASS!

The Nats: Ready to deal?

2011-07-18T11:29:00.000-07:00

The Nats: Ready to deal? - Yardbarker

Lots of stuff here. I assume Rosenthal has been talking to Rizzo -- that's where the VERY specific CF who can bat leadoff (hopefully that means high OBP not high SB) search target comes from.

I'm already on record as saying this is absolutely on point both in terms of identifying a need and trying to fill it with the right combination of skills.

His list of candidates is less than inspiring. B.J. Upton, Colby Rasmus, Denard Span or Michael Bourn. Meh. Upton will be very expensive very soon and is not a leadoff guy. Rasmus isn't a leadoff guy and based on his past year might not be as good as the prospect mavens thought. Bourn's value is his defense and his speed. OBP is marginal but acceptable. However he's a little bit too far along the age curve for his skill set and his salary. Span? Haven't looked at him closely.

I suppose that's why they are all available . . . they all have flaws.

Rosenthal doesn't mention Julio Borbon of the Rangers as a target. Not sure why since the Rangers need short relievers and Borbon is expendable. Would much rather have Leonsys Martin from the Rangers who would be absolutely perfect in terms of skill set, age and salary so I'm not holding my breath.

Interesting discussion of the middle infielders. Are teams really calling about Espinosa? I don't buy that at all. How valuable is Espinosa now . . . a good glove MI with power and cheap? He would fetch ANYONE short of say Mike Trout.

Wonder why they didn't think about Anthony Rendon as the ultimate beneficiary of a middle IF swap? He's more likely to be slotted there long term than Lombardozzi I would think.

I'm sure the Desmond bashers will be outraged about the assertion that Ian would be an upgrade as SS for more than a few contenders. But he would be. He's only 26 and he has really improved defensively and I don't care what the advanced defensive metrics say. If he's one run better than average then Derek Jeter must be costing the Yankees 50 runs a year. DO those metrics take his arm strength into account? How many extra outs has he created turning a double play that with a rag armed SS would have not been close? More than a few and I have to believe his out of area score has to be undercounted.

But with the glut of MIs now in the system . . . Desmond should go. He has present value AND long term value. He should bring back something nice too.

How can they not talk about Jason Marquis as a trade candidate? He's in a gots to go situation. There are plenty of candidates to replace him (Detweiler, Milone, Peacock and oh my gosh I cant believe I'm typing this Wang!) and you could reasonably ask him to start a post season game. What other starter who's really available can you say that about? I doubt Ubaldo is really available -- Wandy R. maybe

Please don't let the current flirtation with .500 stand in the way of deals. Just gather more assets. If you need to, you can use them in the offseason to get veterans if you think you need them for 2012.

Taking a long view

2011-07-08T08:30:00.000-07:00

The Goessling Game: Davey Johnson taking a long view of Nationals' development

This piece just gives me a jumping off point for a few observations.

First off, please stop with the contend in 2011 crap. That isn't going to happen. It just isn't. Enjoy the winning, enjoy the 1 run wins because they will be gone as soon as they arrived.

I think a taste of it was administered last night. The overtaxed Clippard and Storen weren't available to put out the fire and the rest of the pen proved unable to hold the line. Expect to see more of that in the 2nd half.

Johnson's observations (about the questions at short and CF) are on point. Now it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that but at least I know he knows. FWIW.

Yes the NL East is tough division right now. but you know what? The Phillies are on their last legs. Right now, they are running on the fumes of two pitchers on the wrong side of 30. Check out their offense . . . middle of the pack despite playing in the CB bandbox. And best of all . . . there isn't a lot of room for their main offensive players to grow. Howard will continue to decline, Rollins, Utley Ibanez all on the down side.

Now the Braves are another matter. They are loaded with young talent specifically pitching. We still have to see how committed their ownership is to winning though. Oddly, this is one franchise that really doesn't see a huge boost from winning. Are they sudden;y going to start flooding Turner Field? How would this team's winning be different from the years and years of it they've been doing and not really enhancing the attendance figures? It would be easy to imagine an ownership group who is content to be very good but not be willing to step out on a limb and really make a championship investment. And that might be smart since they are unlikely to get back that investment (with more revenue from more fans)

There is a chance for the Nationals to contend soon perhaps as soon as 2012 if you want to wishfully think. But certainly by 2013 the erosion of the Phillie juggernaut should be evident and we'll know if the Braves ownership is willing to lay out for a title. And by then some of those holes could be fixed up.

If they are looking to fill holes, please do not be afraid to sacrifice this year. Burnett=gone. Marquis=gone. Nix=gone. Turn them into future assets, they can be whatever is the best deal since with the glut of young catchers and middle infielders there will have to be some trading in Mike Rizzo's future. Having a few extra assets to sweeten the pot could be the difference between winning a trade or coming in second again.

Also: Matt Stairs needs to be DFA'ed TODAY. He's on the team for one reason and one reason only: to give professional pinch hitting atbats late in games. A professional PH should be able to get a run in from 3rd with less than 2 outs. Not even asking for hit just a loud fly ball. Got a pop up. Tell me the team wouldn't be better off with Chris Marrero in his spot right now. Marrero could at least play the field and could match up late with LOOGY's. With Nix, Ankiel and Bernadina occupying the other bench PH spot at least Davey would have options. And it would be nice to see Marrero outlast all the "hes a bust" labels thrown on him for the past five years.

Jim Riggleman Resigns

2011-06-23T13:25:00.000-07:00

Jim Riggleman Resigns: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Holy F!

Gut reaction: I can't blame Rizzo for not making a move under pressure. Riggs wasn't his guy anyway.

Did Riggleman think he had leverage having the team at .500? Thought this was his one chance to get a multi-year deal and when it didn't happen he felt honor bound to go through with his threat?

Thinking deeper, this might not be the worst thing to have happen. Now they need an interim manager and please make it an interim manager for the rest of this year. And that guy CANNOT be a candidate for the job long term. I don't want a guy who feels he NEEDS to win this year to get a new contract.

Despite the current hot streak, this is still a team in rebuilding mode. They aren't playoff contenders and they still need to operate as if they aren't. Wins in 2011 aren't important, wins in 2012 and beyond are. So, please don't burn up Zimmermann's arm or Clippard's or Storens. Please trade Pudge and Marquis and Coffey ASAP. Put in a guy who will keep playing Ramos over Pudge and Desmond over Cora.

I will miss you Riggs. A solid baseball man, a pretty good talker in the press conferences and surprisingly willing to take some chances (pitcher batting 8th!!!). I think the players liked playing for him and that can't be discounted. And once again, thanks for Strasburg!!!!!

Nats Insider: Skole among 18 draft picks to sign

2011-06-21T13:18:00.000-07:00

Nats Insider: Skole among 18 draft picks to sign

Got Justin Williams signed! HS short stop with strong college commit. A guy who should have been picked sooner which means they must have gone overslot to get him! +1 Mike

Now, just quit it with all this "we may be buyers or sellers" crap. You are a seller. Sell. Sell now, sell hard and sell often.

But please don't give the Rays Derek Norris for B.J. Upton. You can think about it but don't do it.

I'm sure that's who they will ask you for. And you politely tell them 6 years of a cost controlled catcher with power and plate discipline is worth more than two (expensive) years of a middling CF with limited power and on base ability.

A Bit Confusing?

2011-06-14T11:53:00.000-07:00

Breaking Down How Nine of MLB's 30 Clubs are Violation of Debt Rules

The Biz of Baseball breaks down the nine teams currently in violation of MLB's debt service rule.

Here's the description for the Nationals:

This is one that gets a bit confusing. The $611 million Nationals Park was funded entirely by the public and player payroll has been some of the lowest in the league. The Lerners, who own the Nationals, are also one of the most-wealthy in all the league (technically the richest after the death of Twins owner Carl Pohlad). Ted Lerner has a net worth of $3 billion. So, what’s the catch? At first, we thought it was due to in-stadium revenues needing to be a certain level to assist in paying down construction bonds, but that’s money that District absorbs. Stadium lease payments? The Werth deal? If there was a place where the Nationals might be getting bit, it's at the gate. With the Nats currently ranking 21st in average attedance (21,402), and never being able to galvinize the fan base since Nationals Park opened, it's the one spot that you might point to.

One spot you might point to? That's It.

It is that unclear. Why exactly are the Nationals in debt at all? The Lerner's didn't have to borrow to buy the club, they didn't have to borrow to build the stadium. Where's the debt coming from?

One absolutely uninformed and unsourced speculation would be the Lerner's agreed to take on debt from the prior owners (MLB) as part of the purchase agreement. I'm sure in limbo Expos/Nationals were not huge money makers. I'm guessing they had less than lucrative local TV and radio rights. (I think I even remember no one bidding on the Expos radio rights during their final season in Montreal).

It would make sense to structure the deal this way. If they had simply split the Nat's purchase price up 29 ways there would be lots of questions about how that's being spent and why. From a practical standpoint, eliminating debt is the same as cutting a check only without any public recriminations.

It almost impossible to determine the price of a major league franchise. Rarely are these deals only for the franchise itself, it almost always includes cable outlets or stadium ownership. As such, its not really worth it to compare any final sticker price. So, I'm sure we'll never know exactly where this debt came from and if the price the Lerner's paid was market.

For the fans perspective, its only important if it has dogged the team's ability to operate. Perhaps the gap between the low payroll and the market's ability to support a much higher payroll is debt service.

I can't say with certainty that has happened. There are sound reasons payroll has been low and it would have made little sense to overpay free agents who are mediocre at best when you have no foundation.

But it could explain why they are so hesitant to bid internationally. I'd imagine IFA's are about the lowest priority in the expenditure chain.

The Lerner's have no obligation to satisfy my curiosity about this debt. It seems to me that from their perspective it would be helpful to them to say Look we took on a lot of obligations you don't know about to get this deal done. We're trying to get rid of those obligations as fast as we can but until then it seriously limits what we can do. That would be understandable and give a logical reason for the payroll to be so absurdly low.

Of course, they might be concerned about fostering a "we're not trying to win now because of this crippling debt" and there would be no way to create the impression they were trying to contend right now and trying to win. Maybe that would hurt attendance even more.

I guess as an engaged fan I'd rather hear the truth than have the smoke blown up my ass.

On other matters, I have to give a tip 'o the cap to Jim Riggleman for putting Jayson Werth into the leadoff spot. I wrote a while back that right now Werth should be considered as the leadoff hitter but that we'd never see it. We'll now we have but more in the mad scientist experimental vein than defended as a sound baseball move. Theoretically, Werth is one of your best hitters and getting him more AB's is a good thing. As is having him on base in front of your other best hitters. Some strong out of the box thinking from an old baseball man.

Trade Jason MArquis NOW. Don't hesitate, don't wait another second. Get him on the acela to the Bronx tonight. He'd be the Yanks second best starter right now! Think they don't know that. Think they aren't concerned they won't make the postseason this time around because of that fact? Of course they are and its time to force the H & H Steinbrenner combo to panic and make a bad deal. The way Marquis is pitching right now you could see him in a post season rotation. Can you see Ivan Nova? Bartolo Colon? Freddie Garcia? TBD???

I'd even try to cash in on Tyler Clippard. Maybe someone out there panics and really pays through the nose. Deal 'em a year too early rather than a year too late.

24 hour media BS

2011-06-08T07:31:00.000-07:00

Video: Nats Phenom Harper Gets All Smoochy After Homer: DCist

I don't know Bryce Harper either. Never met him probably never will.

So let's just take random moments from this kids life and create a psychological profile that fits some predetermined narrative we like.

The reaction this this "kiss" incident is almost laughable. Men and women WITH JOBS WHO ARE BEING PAID are writing articles about it.

These same "journalists" are assigning blame, demanding the Nationals take "action" to stamp out this awful behavior before its too late and Western Civilization as we know it collapses.

I like the internet. But its times like this I can see the problems it creates. Clearly, these stories are written with one aim: eyeballs. These writers think calling an 18 year old kid a jerk for fooling around on a baseball diamond will get them readers. They figure if they are outrageous enough or if they can drum up some controversy it will burnish their credentials as tough no-nonsense sports writers holding these overpaid arrogant athletes accountable to the standards of decent society.

Or, as Occam's razor would posit, they are just lazy bastards who figure this is the easiest way to create content to be fed into the 24 hour a day media machine.

How many electrons died over this absolute non-story? How long do you suppose it will be brought up in Harper related stories? How often will a-hole "yodlers" rant about it on radio and TV? Once is too many and I am not looking forward to the thousands of mentions I will be forced to endure if I choose to follow Nationals baseball coverage.

Not that anyone should be surprised. The media spent a week wasting my time as I try to read current events with some old guy who "predicts" the end of the world. You do realize the only difference between that guy and the guy in the park with a cardboard sign is the medium don't you? They are both nuttier than squirrel crap but one is ignored (rightfully) and the other becomes inescapable.

Final initial draft note: I don't have a problem with the Nats mid round strategy of taking tall signable college pitchers. There is probably a John Lannan in there somewhere. which would be great. It would be so nice however, if they could just get one of those high school tough signs too.

Nationals take a chance on Matt Purke in third round

2011-06-07T10:24:00.000-07:00

The Goessling Game: Nationals take a chance on Matt Purke in third round

What can I say but F&^$ and YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They do have a plan, they are operating like the big market team they should be but in a good way . . . . this is Red Sox level move.

I don't even care if Purke turns out to be damaged goods, its the idea that this team will search for high ceiling talent and will spend what's necessary. They didn't do that in '09. Maybe they were still gun shy.

They certainly did last year with Cole and Ray. Working out pretty well so far.

I wrote they had to come out of this draft with at least 2 new members of their top 10 prospects list. They may have FOUR new members of that list!

Buster Blog: Nationals' Future

2011-06-07T07:34:00.000-07:00

Buster Blog: Nationals' Future - ESPN Video - ESPN

I know everyone loves their draft the day after and the rubber won't meet the road for three to five years.

However, when you have a draft say like the Nats did, its OK to celebrate just a little.

Every guy they took should have been drafted before the spot where they took him. That means they got value.

They got a true CF prospect with OBP skills -- a need that they didn't have to reach for.

They got a potential front line starter or a potential top line set up guy (another Jon Rauch if you will)

They got the best bat in the draft (right now). Rendon is probably the only guy who could step in and hold his own at the major league level right now. Not that he should but just that he could.

And as Buster points out here, all Scott Boras clients. Remember when that was considered a negative?

Nice little flourish at the end of Buster's blog about the Braves players saying the Nats have quite a collection of talent on the way and that they might be in the hunt for another Boras client this off season in Prince Fielder.

I'd be surprised if they did go after Fielder, he doesn't seem to fit their athletic at all costs paradigm and with his old player skills would be a candidate for a early 30s cliff dive in skill.

Went to see Ryan Zimmerman's rehab game at the Pfitz last night.

It is true that Zim ole'd a hot shot that helped lead to the 5 run 2nd inning. But you really can't blame him for that, not like he needs to or should sacrifice his body for an out in a minor league game. Rifled a double down the left field line in his first AB then went the other way for a single in his second.

Otherwise, things did not look good. Bauer started for the Keys (I believe this is the older brother of the O's top pick yesterday) and he dominated everyone except Zim.

Destin Hood looked particularly bad. He passes the sight test with flying colors but in one AB he looked like hitting was a entirely new experience to him.

J.P. Ramirez doesn't pass the sight test. Maybe it was perspective but he looked like a paper boy out there. He did draw two walks including one where he went down 0-2.

Besides Bloxom's HR and Zim's 2 hits the Potomac highlight was a spectacular double play turned by Koburnus and Lozada. Koburnus reached a ball headed up the middle, made the glove toss to Lozada who barehanded and got the guy at first by a half step.

Trevor Holder was so hittable. He threw strikes early but everything that the Key's hit was hit on the screws even the outs. It seemed he started to nibble a bit which got him behind in counts and then had to come in. The results were predictable including a HR that hit right in the middle of the Uncle Julio's sign in dead CF. Seemed like his velocity was fine so either he can't command it in the zone or it is dead straight.

How slow was Wilson Ramos’s home run trot?

2011-06-06T14:12:00.000-07:00

How slow was Wilson Ramos’s home run trot? - DC Sports Bog - The Washington Post

Way to go Wilson. After your team got plunked, you should have Cadillaced that dinger.

Its even better that the Arizona TV guys got all hot and bothered. What did they say when Espinosa got hit? Nothing I am sure despite the fact that pitcher was clearly trying to hit Espinosa. So FU Mark Grace if you can't take it.

And I have two words for Mark Lerner regarding his statement that the Nats would be wiling to spend on players from the 2011 draft like they did for Solis, Cole and Ray . . . F*&% AND YES!

I expect BPA all the way through the draft.

It's said better elsewhere

2011-06-02T08:59:00.000-07:00

Nationals top Phillies, but still must overcome ingrained culture of losing - The Washington Post

but just let me throw an amen brother on the Boswell's an idiot pile:

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=1593

I understand that Boswell is a writer and as such his focus is the narrative of the here and now. He's crafting the story of the 2011 Nats and in that context things were looking bad.

But "scouting for players who might help in 2015" IS THE EXACT FREAKING THING RIZZO NEEDS TO BE DOING RIGHT NOW!

3 of the first 34 picks in a deep draft means unless they add at least two new members of their top 10 prospect list, it will be a failure. And that will set the 2015 Nats back even worse than a "wildfire."

Really, a wildfire? A team with Alex Cora and Jerry Hairston Jr. playing every day and losing is a problem. It's not a problem, ITS REALITY! It was a 70 win team that had aspirations of 75 with a bit of luck and might be well on their way with the run of decent pitching they've gotten.

But take away Ryan Zimmerman, or the criminally underrated Ryan Zimmerman if you will, and the decay of Adam LaRoche and you have another 1st pick contender.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-criminally-underrated-ryan-zimmerman/

As I've written so many times: 2011 died the moment Strasburg's elbow snapped.

Taking the focus off 2015 and putting it on this year's collection of hope to be's and never were's is the criminal mistake. I'm sorry Boz that it doesn't make for a compelling summer of columns but them's the breaks.

And I'm sure covering the Nats is a lot less fun when you can't sidle up to Stan and have him talk your ear off for a half an hour in the press box. Stan's a world class talker and I'll bet privately he has way more interesting things to say. So the Lerner's or Rizzo or really anyone in the locker room can't talk like Dunn, that's no reason to demand some new friends for you to BS with Boz.

Try learning spanish. I'll bet Pudge and Livan! would be great bull session buddies.

Nats Looking For Center Fielder

2011-06-01T07:56:00.000-07:00

Nats Looking For Center Fielder; Asked About Bourn: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Regardless of the particular details, should this Ladson story be true in essence, then I give one thumbs up to the Washington front office.

If they have identified the need for a CF with a high OBP as a major priority then they are 1) smart 2) on the right track

Now, as is pointed out in the comments of this piece, this commodity is rare. So saying they will "overpay" is not really all that meaningful. They WILL overpay and should they actually find the guy, they SHOULD overpay.

They have a young catcher, a young shortstop, a young 2B, young closer and two young top of the rotation type starters. Those are the toughest positions to find major league caliber talent and the Nats have at least the promise of a major league average regular there. The other tough position centerfield.

And right now, nothing. You can squint a bit and think Eury Perez but moving up I'm more likely to think he's more Endy Chavez than Tim Raines.

The other key point is: none of these position players nor anyone likely to man the remaining positions are going to be a true high OBP leadoff guy.

Which kind of forces the Nats hand in re: CF. If that guy isn't a leadoff hitter, they will always be crippled by having someone not suited to leading off, leading off. (They could make Jayson Werth the leadoff hitter I suppose but that would take some out of the box thinking that I haven't seen from Riggleman)

They can't think the husk of Pudge and Sptintin' Todd Coffey is going to get them this rare commodity. That's why I hope they don't have a compunction about overpaying. Now, MY definition of overpaying would include (and in fact be my leading bargaining chip) be taking on a bad contract from the team with the right CF prospect. The Giants are an excellent trading partner in that respect seeing as how they possess at least two terrible contracts. It remains to be seen if they possess the right prospect though.

(Aside: wouldn't it be nice right about now a scant few days before the draft, to have draft picks in play?)

What about Harper? In theory, he could solve both problems (CF and leadoff). But I think the same trepidation applies to Harper as it does to Werth. They don't LOOK like leadoff guys and their bats are more typical of middle of the order hitters. Not to mention adding more pressure to Harper as a leadoff guy when he'll be trying to establish himself at the major league level at a young age anyway means they can't be thinking about that as a long term answer.

Still I say go forth and overpay Mike. If you can add some pieces by dealing Pudge and Coffey please do. Jason Marquis should fetch a fat price as well. Just keep your eyes on the prize.

A stupid question

2011-05-27T07:50:00.000-07:00

Wire Taps: Washington Nationals Trade Chatter: Pudge Rodriguez, Todd Coffey. - Federal Baseball

Are the Nationals ready to start dealing? -- That's the tag line. I'll give you the short answer: YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If the Giants really called about Pudge, why would you let the Giants GM off the phone before you made a deal? Rangers called about Todd Coffey but "no serious talks" are going on? Really? Todd Coffey should be sprinting to Arlington right now.

Perhaps I'm wrong and the front office actually believes this team can turn it around and at least make a run at.500. I say so what? As I've said before 2011 died when Strasburg's elbow popped. Zimm's injury drove a stake through the heart.

I guess part of the problem may be that Rizzo and the rest of the front office is buried in draft prep. That's a quality excuse. This draft is very important -- 3 picks in the top 35 in a deep draft. They need to come away with at least two new members of their top 10 prospects list for 2012 and another high ceiling player. Those guys will likely have a bigger impact long term on the Nats than anyone they could get for Pudge or Coffey.

But to think there is actually some kind of choice between contending and dumping in trading either or both is absurd. The likely impact on the 2011 Nats would be small. The fans will understand. They will, you won't be losing attention, you will actually make it more interesting. We'd like to see some new chapters, offer hope rather than basically the nothing we have now.

And while you are at it, call the Yankees and offer Marquis.

The Nationals' bullpen conundrum

2011-05-13T09:50:00.000-07:00

The Goessling Game: More on the Nationals' bullpen conundrum

The operative assumption here is the bullpen is built to win now and develop for later.

That's wrong. Winning now is unimportant. Developing assets for the long term (trade or useful pieces) is the primary goal.

Rizzo obviously thinks so. He can never say that but this bullpen construction reflect that thought.

And I give him two enthusiastic thumbs up!

Once again, 2011 died the moment Strasburg's elbow popped. So what is the value of 60 wins vs. 70 wins? Is anyone going to remember or care going forward? No. Unless you follow the Pirates to decades of futility.

Having a long term plans means making near term sacrifices in return for long term success. This is the sacrifice. One meaningless game in the middle of May during a lost season. Big Fing deal.

As for an overstock of relievers, let us remember the Orioles got Mark Reynolds for a quiverful of relievers this off season. The Padres got Cameron Maybin for a pair of relievers. So excess relief pitchers have trade value, you just need them in Costco-style bulk packaging.

Yes it sucks today to realize a winnable game was lost because the team's roster wasn't optimized to win that night. Such is the price to be paid.

Here's a sentence you son't want to read about your new outfielder

2011-05-09T08:36:00.000-07:00

Nationals Trade For Speedy Minor Leaguer Gregor Blanco | May

Blanco is no star, and not quite a prospect anymore, but he is a good young player who had been boxed out by a bad situation in Kansas City where he was stuck behind veterans like Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera.

Hey now, we got the guy who's behind Francoeur and the not Miguel Cabrera. Pinch me.

Really though, this is just a depth move with no long term implications. I'll say this for Rizzo, he's very through about how he constructs his bench. Constantly, tweaking it, looking for spare parts.

What I'd really like to see him doing right now is: Squeezing a useful long term part out of the Yankees for Jason Marquis. They have to be desperate for a starter since the Garcia and Colon mystery rejuvenation tour can't go on much longer and you have 4 possible rotation replacements (Maya, Detweiler, Milone, Meyers) waiting in the wings. Should get a bigger price the more starts Marquis makes in pinstripes.

I will say this: 16-18 at this point in the season is a minor miracle. It just can't last can it? Can these starters keep making quality starts? When will Clippard and Storen's arms fall off? I anticipate a nasty losing streak sometime before Zimmerman comes back. That lineup is just so weak.

Nationals-Phillies lineups for Thursday

2011-05-05T14:34:00.001-07:00

The Goessling Game: Nationals-Phillies lineups for Thursday

What are the odds of a no-hitter tonight for Halladay? 3-1, 4-1 tops.

Nationals-Phillies lineups for Thursday

2011-05-05T14:34:00.000-07:00

The Goessling Game: Nationals-Phillies lineups for Thursday

What are the odds of a no-hitter tonight for Halladay? 3-1, 4-1 tops.

Not the worst idea I've heard

2011-04-19T09:30:00.000-07:00

The Goessling Game: The Nationals-B.J. Upton rumor passes the smell test

B. J. Upton wouldn't be the worst idea I've heard as a trade target.

He's young, plays a premium position and has massive upside.

OTOH, he's never delivered on his promise at the major league level and now has a long track record of lack of success. He's no Devon White in CF and he's no Rickey Henderson when it comes to getting on base.

Oh and you'd have to pay him after 2012.

Maybe I've just talked myself out of Bossman Jr.

This decision comes down to a pure scouting evaluation of Upton as a person and a player. The numbers say he's not likely to improve and what he is isn't much.

But if there is an environmental factor, a physical problem or simply bad instruction perhaps Upton's talents could be unleashed elsewhere.

If they can get him without having to pay the price for his potential and the FO has a clear idea of how he could be better, then why the hell not?

In the end, I highly doubt the Nationals would trade for Upton. It's really a high risk move for an organization which has shown little appetite for risk.

A few random thoughts on the 2011 season so far:

Danny Espinosa and Jordan Zimmermann seem to have established themselves as useful players. That was (and is) a crucial goal for this season.

Mike Morse is proving spring training stats don't matter -- BTW Ryan Langerhans has 2 HRs for Seattle so far I'm just saying.

Rick Ankiel has two great skills -- hitting for power and throwing from the outfield. It proves all you need is one or two above average skills to find work in baseball.

Jason Marquis is healthy. That's good. Now if he can just maintain it for three months he can be spun into something very useful come July 31.

I can't make up my mind about Ian Desmond. By the numbers, he a negative fielder which is astounding. I know about the errors -- they are highlighted and chronicled. But it seems to me I see a play or two nearly every game that an average shortstop (let's call him Phristian) would not get to. Or a throw they wouldn't make. That's an extra out for the defense in the same way an error is an extra out for the offense. Maybe I don't see enough other SS in action to really judge and the numbers really do the job but in my mind they could do a lot worse at short than Desmond.

Wilson Ramos has been extremely lucky so far. I'll grant you that. But he seems comfortable back there and there is some pop in his bat. Again, he may not be All-Star quality but he looks like he'll be in the fraternity of catchers for quite a while.

Interesting stat during the Brewers/Phils game last night. Shawn Marcum was starting for the Brewers and throwing at best in the mid-80s. They posted a list of the slowest fastballs among starters in 2011. I'd be willing to bet you already know who topped this list by 3 mph if I remember correctly.I can't imagine what kind of confidence it takes to walk out to the mound armed with nothing like Livan! does and still get guys out.

One suggestion for the game day staff at the park -- if you have a game that's close but say has gone on for such a long time that 95% of the visible seats from the CF camera are empty -- bring some people down from the cheap seats and fill them up. I feel like I'm watching college baseball when the CF shot shows NO ONE in the background. I know you want to maintain exclusivity for these posh seats but trust me when I tell you it looks like crap on TV.

Leonys Martin: Why isn't he headed to Harrisburg?

2011-04-14T09:07:00.000-07:00

Minor Developments: Early returns - Fantasy - Yahoo! Sports

I can’t help but wonder if the injury to Josh Hamilton (notes) has the Rangers pushing the panic button today, with the big news being the expected signing of Cuban defector Leonys Martin. The club is reportedly offering Martin, a center fielder, a whopping $15 million dollar bonus along with a spot on the 40-man roster. Here is a little background on Martin, who was a budding star in Cuba. He offers speed, defense, and true lead-off ability, and may see the field in short order if Julio Borbon (notes) can’t pick up the pace. I’d expect Martin to start off at Double-A Frisco, and move quickly from there.

$16 million. That's all it would take. And you would have yourselves the EXACT type of player you need: a CF who can be a plus defender with a good OBP so he can be your lead off hitter!

This is an ELUSIVE skill set. It's on par with top starters and SS who can hit with power. Why wouldn't you do anything and everything to get one for nothing more than cash?

So why again is the Nats payroll so low this year despite the fact they play in a massive media market? And the owners are billionaires? And why can't they be the ones announcing this signing.

It can't be hard. I mean just call the guys agent and say "Whatever the Rangers are offering, we'll offer more." No matter what shady deals have gone down, money talks and BS walks.

Hell, have Livan! call the guy. Would he really not take a call from perhaps the most successful Cuban major league pitcher going today?

Wait till the signing is announced and Rizzo is asked about it. "We made an offer but we came in 2nd" is the odds on favorite.

Managerial Soap Opera

2011-04-12T08:15:00.000-07:00

Marlins' Edwin Rodriguez is lone manager on early-season hot seat - Jon Heyman - SI.com

So our old friend the Bowden-hating Jon Heyman put Riggleman on the "warm" seat.

I can't say it isn't speculation with some merit since you have a manger of a non descript club with a non descript record. If it turns out to be accurate, hey you are a freaking visionary. If not, no one remembers.

What would be interesting is: Does the FO let a managerial soap opera commence?

One where we get hints and not quite definitive answers to questions about the managers status. It becomes a part of nearly every game story, it percolates through the old and new media everyone speculating on if and or when they may call the press conference to "make a change."

It's a way to stay in the headlines if you have a team that isn't particularly interesting or successful. And I really hope this FO doesn't go down that road.

Look, we all know this is a 70 win team. Without Zimmerman and LaRoche its probably a 60 win team!

(You'd have to have the lowest odd ever today for seeing a no hitter or perfect game when Halladay faces the emaciated Nats lineup)

So why turn yourself into that organization that habitually sacrifices its employees to satiated the blood lust of fan base. Riggleman has a nearly impossible job if the job is for him to win 81 games. He should be judged solely on how he handles the development of the younger players and making sure the egos of the older players don't become a clubhouse cancer.

That's a tall enough order and encouraging the speculation even behind the scenes would make the season more interesting but would be damaging to the club in the long term.

Strasburg's Elbow saved me $60

2011-04-05T12:30:00.000-07:00

The worst Strasburg jersey ever - DC Sports Bog - The Washington Post

I was looking for a hook to note this and here it is.

Got my Strasburg jersey 50% at Modell's along with a #37 red t-shirt. So, so far, that torn elbow ligament has me $60 ahead. If it heals. Otherwise, I have some real painful memories hanging in my closet.

As for the opening series . . . look we didn't expect a .500 season. In fact, they are a 70-75 win team at best.

But J Zimm pitched well. That was the only game I saw for an extended period of time and if he hadn't had the strike zone squeezed to an unreasonable extent, he would have had an even better outing. That should be very encouraging. His development as a solid #2 is one of the key goals for 2011.

Danny Espinosa looks like he belongs. Another key development for 2011.

Have to like Wilson Ramos' start. Operation Phase out Pudge coming along nicely. It was good of him to bounce into a patented Pudge DP on Sunday just to remind us why this is important.

Did we expect Desmond to be an effective leadoff hitter? No. I certainly hope not. He's miscast there. But leadoff hitters are hard to find. It should be the #1 priority going forward on the hitting side.

Did we see Mike Morse or Rick Ankiel as long term solutions? No we didn't. And they aren't. So if they fail it means very little (aside from more losses this year than expected) and they will be easy to dispose of.

Rest of the important 2011 stories begin when the minor league seasons start. Obviously everyone will be watching Harper. But there are a lot of other stories.

Will Norris bash his was to Washington this year? Or at least set us up to take a job in 2012? Will Detweiler force himself into the big league rotation? Will any of the talented OF's in Potomac breakout and establish themselves as a third strong position player prospect for the system?

Finally, how will Sammy Solis, A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray develop?

I'm setting the bar pretty low. But that seems most reasonable to me. Barring a string of unfathomable bad luck though, the expectations for 2012 will be much higher.

I have no complaints

2011-03-29T08:41:00.000-07:00

The Goessling Game: A discussion on Roger Bernadina

How much fun can you have, how much passion can you muster when at base I agree with nearly everything the Nationals are doing this spring.

I've written in the past one easily correctable problem for the team was a serious lack of power on the bench. I also pointed out how easy it would be to fix it. And lo and behold, that's exactly what they did.

I don't have a problem with sending the Shark down in favor of Ankiel. Roger doesn't appear to be the answer in CF but it would be nice to find out for sure. Having him play everyday at Syracuse (and be an excellent call up in case of injury) seems to me to indicate a much deeper organization, one that doesn't have to reach for the Mench's of the world when injuries strike.

No, Ankiel isn't the answer either. He's just a mercenary and unless he has some incredible luck, his AB's will be useless for the long term health of the organization. In other words, I doubt seriously he makes himself valuable enough to trade in July.

Stashing Rodriguez and Ramirez on the DL -- savvy moves. Both could be assets and it would be stupid to give up on either one in favor of Todd Coffey. Keeping Brian B. again a savvy move. Generating potential value from essentially a useless roster spot (mop up man).

Trading Nyjer -- same thought as Roger. Nyjer wasn't the answer in CF that was clear. Having him hanging around even in Syracuse wasn't worth it either. He was who we thought he was and that isn't good enough for his sub par OBP and anger management issues. And getting what looks to be a potentially useful player, albeit one with an Alex Cora like ceiling is a bonus.

Trading Gonzalez -- again nice. Turned playing time from 2010 into an asset for the longer term. Without A-Gonz's ABs last year, do you think he'd have any value? He'd be like a hundred other AAAA utility infielders. But since GMs had the chance to see him and see him perform well in that role, he had value which could be cashed in.

Not that any of these moves on the roster fringes will propel the Nationals into contention but they show a consistent pattern of evaluations based on not just the next ball game but for a longer term. A Plan if you will. And its a plan I like.

Sure it would be nice to have an ace pitcher or a defensive wizard CF with a high OBP but those are two of the toughest commodities to find in baseball. I'd rather paste over those holes than try and talk myself into overpaid average players in those roles. If and when one becomes available, it will be easy and painless to put them in the lineup.

Sure the starting pitching and the on-base problems loom large. But they are finally getting the small things right. And that usually leads to the larger things going right eventually.

2011 Organizational Rankings: #24 – Washington | FanGraphs Baseball

2011-03-23T12:01:00.000-07:00

2011 Organizational Rankings: #24 – Washington | FanGraphs Baseball

Not a through analysis but a few off the top of my head observations:

Financial Resources: 75 (T-20) -- This is absurdly low. 7th largest media market combined with the richest owner in North American team sports means there should be no dearth of financial resources. If this refers to spending already made, then I understand this rating. Oh boy do I understand it.

"Chances are the team’s ability to draw high level players will trend more with team record and team willingness to spend than anything else."

This is his conclusion to the "We signed Werth to attract other FA to come to Washington."

In that the theory behind signing Jayson Werth in the first place was to win more, the two go hand in hand. If Werth does his job and the Nats win more, then more players will want to play there. Especially since they have vast untapped resources at their disposal. Which came first? To me, the winning is far more important than the spending so I agree here.

Chides the Nats for not trading Dunn at the deadline last year. Thinks they could have done better than the #23 pick and the #35 pick. Maybe, that is speculation. Getting prospects is only slightly less risky than the draft. Would you rather have Kevin Slowey or Jordan Zimmermann? That's the breakdown from the Soriano non-deal. Looks like a big fat winner for the draft pick to me.

“given his dealings with the incredibly expensive first overall picks he’s had to sign the last two years, the team is willing to spend, spend, spend on the draft for now”

This is the fly in the draft ointment. This statement is untrue if you focus on 2009 but true for 2010. The draft strategy only makes sense if the team is willing to follow 2010 and overpay for talent rather than the signable 2009 disaster. Going signable for #23 and #35 would kind of defeat the purpose of the Dunn gamble.

I won’t even waste another electron on international signings (Maya withstanding) except to say there has been ZERO other evidence this team is seriously engaged internationally. Bring me the arm of Yu Darvish this offseason and we can’t forget all this.

Really can’t argue with 24^th. Only real positive note right now is if you include SS, you have two potential franchise players in the system. Most teams don’t have one. We really can’t say in only two years if the current organization is adept and developing the talent at hand. It won’t be long though when all of JimBo’s picks are gone and we’ll be left with these guys scouting and development track record on the line.

Nationals are due some luck on their ‘question marks’ - The Washington Post

2011-03-15T09:49:00.000-07:00

Nationals are due some luck on their ‘question marks’ - The Washington Post

I can't find it and I just don't have the time to do it again but trust me: Mike Morse is no Jayson Werth. Morse's best minor league seasons don't compare to Werth's from any angle.

Is it possible Morse has just figured it out? Sure, I guess. Is there any statistical evidence to back that up? No. Some guys have great minor league numbers and then for one reason or another flame out at the big league level. Then a few years later, they blossom (usually for a short period of time) and they kind of "come out of no where."

Nothing in Morse's profile screams productive regular. That doesn't mean he won't be a productive regular in left this year. Clearly he's won the lion's share of the left field job. Should he replicate Willingham's production, this lineup would be miles better.

Right now, you have to think the RF/1B combo will be about the same as 2010 with just the proportions changed. CF about the same, 3B and SS about the same as well. 2B and catcher should be improved so patching the expected loss in left means this lineup has the chance to be as good if not better than the 2010 version. Not something I expected.

Haven't had any luck? Really Mike. Livan!'s 2010 wasn't a heaping pile of steaming luck?

Meathook's one good year wasn't a bag of horseshoes? Morgan's 2009?

Perhaps the "luck" has been to little and too far between but its been there. Management hasn't been proactive enough in capitalizing on that luck -- selling it high when it had the chance. Points for cashing in on Capps's "luck". That's the way it should be done.

Watched most of the Saturday ST game on MASN. Was not immediately blown away by F.P. Sounded like every other former player in the booth -- can't really remember anything useful he added. That alone is an improvement over Dibble.

Two Words

2011-02-24T07:09:00.000-08:00

Nats Agree To Terms With 14 International Prospects: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

F&^$ and Yes!

Harper to Center Field? Music to my ears « Nationals Arm Race

2011-02-14T13:41:00.000-08:00

Harper to Center Field? Music to my ears « Nationals Arm Race

I wholehearedly agree. When you really look at that list of CF's, it makes perfect sense.

And Harper wouldn't have to hit 40 HR's to be useful. Most of those guys are just like Nyjer, no power and no OBP ability. We're assuming Bryce will be a plus OBP guy aren't we?

Right now, we have above league average production in two places: 3B and RF. The problem with that is: league average is higher there than for the up the middle positions. You get a better spread, a bigger advantage if your best guys play positions where everybody else has punch and judy hitters. Harper in CF would be one of those extra plus guys.

So, our old friend Elijah lets us know he got baked before games. Not surprising I suppose. If the team was covering up for him when they said his release was "performance" related I can understand that even empathize. The dick move would have been to say He's a pothead and we don't want him around anymore. I'm sure Elijah's lack of job offers tells you all you need to know about what was said behind the scenes.

MLB trade rumors publishes the news that the Nats made TWO international signings!

Here's the money quote:

The club remains hesitant to hand out massive signing bonuses like the one they gave 16-year-old Esmailyn Gonzalez, who really turned out to be 20-year-old Carlos Alvarez, in 2006. Excluding the Yunesky Maya major league deal, the Nationals spent about $1MM on signing bonuses for prospects in Latin America last year, one of the smallest budgets in the majors. Now, DiPuglia tells Kilgore, the club is starting to spend more on international players.

There is no excuse for this. That was three (now four) years ago. What is so hard about compiling a list of the 10 best Dominican or Venezuelan teenagers have a look see and then spreading around some cash? Since the Nats management has kept payroll far below what can reasonably be expected for a team in the 7th largest media market in the country (and first in percapita income) then they needed to show where the savings were going. This is the most cost effective way to develop assets. How many lottery tickets can you buy for one LoDuca?

I think the most interesting part of the spring for the Nats will be how the catching situation shakes out. They have two major league ready backstops and a future Hall of Famer. Then they have another one who is probably going to be better than them all on the fast track. Its the first time I can remember where the team has a genuine surplus of talent. And at a premium position. I assume Flores will start the year in Syracuse so he can play every day with Ramos slowly displacing Pudge as the year grinds on. In an ideal world, Flores plays well enough to create a trade market and no one gets hurt creating a perceived need to keep all of them around. Call the Rays Mike. They need catching and they have a boatload of talented prospects.

I also wonder if they will have the guts to keep the Ramirez kid they got in the Rule V draft over Todd Coffey. Coffey represents nothing, even at his best he might bring back a Shiron Martis while the kid may fail miserably or could turn into a controllable long term asset. Seems like an easy choice for a team on the low end of the success continuum but I'll bet I'm wrong.

I do hope they don't give up on Danny Espinosa too quickly. Its a near lock he'll have a subpar season with the stick, those hamate injuries for a baseball player are a killer. It's basically the hitters Tommy John surgery . . . it takes a year to heal before they are back to normal. Unless he really struggles with the leather, please keep running him out there. He may be punchless but at least he's getting seasoning. That's what 2011 is all about.

Nationals are one of two teams interested in Justin Duchscherer | January

2011-01-31T08:33:00.000-08:00

Nationals are one of two teams interested in Justin Duchscherer | January

However with his past strong performances, he clearly qualifies as the "take a chance on me" type of arm that the Nationals have been all to familiar with over the past several seasons. But with the recent commitment to starting pitching the Nationals have had over the past two seasons, it's really hard to see how he fits in.

He fits in like this: If he pitches like 2008, he slots right behind J Zimm. If not, then he doesn't pitch at all.

Duke's upside is higher than everyone on the SP list except J Zimm. That alone is reason enough to give him a shot. What purpose does it serve long term to have Marquis or Livan! eat innings? They aren't going to command much at the deadline while a healthy and effective Duke might. And that's the goal, using your ability to give playing time to create long term assets. Now, I doubt they actually sign him but the idea is a good one.

Lots of prospect realted stuff coming out .. BA's list and Keith Law's list and so on. I note that two of the Nat's top 10 guys A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray were overslot later round signings. Hmmmm. So you are telling me its possible to make your prospect pipeline better by paying overslot? Wish the billionaire owners knew that in '08 or '09.

And please notice another top 10 overall prospect: Aroldis Chapman. All it would have taken was a few extra dollars that could have come out of the lower than necessary current payroll and boom two top 10 prospects.

UPDATE: Duke signed with Orioles. I'm not surprised. I just hope this means Rizzo is still looking.

Rizzo waves white flag on pitcher search

2011-01-17T09:18:00.000-08:00

Nationals Baseball: Rizzo waves white flag on pitcher search

I don't consider the inability to acquire a #1 type starting pitcher this off season to be all that much in terms of importance.

The market was rail thin and the competition for those available was strong. Philly will regret the Lee deal eventually (can't wait till they are paying Howard and Lee staggering amounts for minimal production).

I can't castigate Philly for its choice -- they are playing for 2011 knowing the window is narrowing (Rollins, Utley and Howard aging and their best pitchers on the bad side of 30). IMHO, they made the right decision for them.

Brewers too. They have a chance in their division, they have Prince Fielder in the middle of their lineup for another year and they really didn't pay a huge price in prospects. And in 2 years they'll get two picks when Greinke leaves.

But what would either of these deals done for our Nats? Mostly it would have given them a "Champs of the offseason" title -- and we already have 10 or so of those banners flying over at Fed Ex field. No replacement for playoff wins.

The 2011 season died the moment SS's elbow snapped. So once again, we have a season where the vital commodity is playing time. It should be used judiciously -- young players get seasoning and vets are showcased for trades. Nats need to know by the end of 2011 if Desmond's glove can be relied upon at short. Can Espinosa handle regular work at 2nd. Can Zimmermann handle 200 IPs and be a true #2 starter? Can Drew Storen handle closing chores? Is Wilson Ramos the catcher of the future? If he is, can they move Derek Norris to 1B and accelerate his ascent to the bigs? Or do they leave him at catcher and use him as a powerful trade chip in the 2011-2012 offseason (a catcher who can hit is a very valuable piece moreso than an OF or CI or RP).

The other task I'd give Rizzo for 2011 is to find a CF who can play defense and get on base. A true leadoff hitter is one gaping hole in the lineup right now and CF is the place where that guy can be added. Granted, aside from #1 starters, a CF who can do both those things is hard to come by. But you've got all this season to identify that guy (I am thinking you look in other organizations I have no confidence in Eury Perez) and you go get that guy.

By 2012, you hopefully have your MI sorted, have Strasburg back at the top of the rotation and have Harper banging on the door to be a third big bat. Also, you'd have considerable payroll flexibility to add an FA starter. Then you'll have the makings of a .500 club with aspirations of contention if luck goes your way.

True that a lot of things have to go right -- young players develop as expected (Harper, Desmond, Ramos, Espinosa Zimmermann) and the pocketbooks have to open but to my mind the way to contention is there. The only question is Will they have the discipline to stay on the road and will they get lucky enough to avoid any potholes (read injuries/regressions)?

Just a random Ian Desmond thought

2010-12-21T07:51:00.000-08:00

Rany J of Rany on the Royals is breaking down the Greinke trade and he wrote this about recently traded Alcidbes Escobar:

"I think he’ll hit around .270 or so. If he hits .270/.320/.360, with good speed and above-average defense, he has a chance to be the best shortstop the Royals have had in a generation. That’s not damning with faint praise – that’s damning with no praise, given what a scar that position has been for pretty much the history of the franchise. But I think he can be the starting shortstop for a playoff-caliber team."

That description looked familiar . . . and lo and behold Ian Desmond's Age 24 season in 2010: 269/308/392 17 steals. -12 OBA +32 SLG. You can argue about the defense but we know he isn't a stiff out there.

I know I suffer from the I know better what I see syndrome and just assumed Desmond as a trade chip was as a throw in variety. Not so. Not so at all. Escobar was a key component of trade and his top side is close to what Desmond IS. Escobar is entering his age 24 season in 2011 BTW so its not like he has a big age advantage.

So I guess what I'm saying is: Don't short sell Desmond.

One unrelated Nats item: Picking up Matt Stairs and Rick Ankiel is to me a step in the right direction. Not in terms of THE PLAN but in terms of roster construction. Rizzo learned from last year that it is an absolute necessity in the National League to have bench players with power. They will get at-bats and in meaningful late-inning situations. Oh how many times did we see Willie Harris or Alberto Gonzalez trudge to the plate in key situations and the best they could do was prolong the game rather than strike a knockout blow. Not going to affect the win total too much I know but still a good sign.

Two steps forward, one step back

2010-12-20T14:32:00.000-08:00

Why I didn't cast a Hall of Fame vote for Bert Blyleven, again - Jon Heyman - SI.com

This pile of crap floated by me today the same day as an interview with Ken Tremendous late of Firejoemorga.com did.

The interview was more of a victory lap for those fans of baseball who realize there may be new and different ways of examining and understanding the game. Which was the point of FJM.

All seemed well then this.

Some of Blyleven's supporters will say that wins don't define a pitcher and aren't always a fair measure of a pitcher's worth, as they are dependent in large part on a pitcher's run support or lack thereof. I did promote Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young, but I still see winning as the ultimate goal in each game, and Blyleven didn't win all that many more games than he lost.

I was certain that Greinke's 2009 win and King Felix's this year would have finally driven a stake through this canard. He even admits wins don't tell anything too useful then goes on to say the exact opposite. Wins don't matter unless a trained eye like mine discern their importance.

He goes on to compare Blyleven with Jack Morris who in his eyes IS a Hall of Famer. Those item which separate the two: Morris was the "dominant" pitcher for several years and he pitched 10 innings in a Game 7. OK. So Blyleven's claim over Morris is just that he struck out way more, pitched way more innings, has a far lower career ERA, had more shutouts and had as good a post season record as Morris did. So Blyleven is demonstrably better at such a mundane thing as getting batters out but his grittiness and dominance just weren't there.

I'm tempted to conclude that Heyman is simply trying to stir up an internet storm. He must know his absurd arguments are laughable on their face and just wants to tweak the "basement dwellars." Kudos to you Mr. Heyman -- you've succeeded. I just wish you could be more honest about it rather than drop this nonsensical drivel onto the internet.

Hey, I'm grew up in Michigan. I loved watching Morris pitch. I'll bet I've seen more Jack Morris starts than Heyman has and Morris isn't an HoFer. At least he isn't if the benchmark is Blyleven.

What excised me about the article was the rampant use of subjective criteria to support his case. MVP voting? All-star game appearances? Cy Young votes? These are criteria? I guess they are for writers who oh I don't know VOTE for such things. So you can be really really good at baseball things like getting batters out but if you aren't adjudged well enough by writers, it really doesn't matter.

He only received MVP votes twice, finishing 26th in 1973 and 13th in 1989.

You do realize these seasons are SIXTEEN YEARS APART!!!!!!! Give me the list of players who got MVP votes in any 16 year span you care to name.

You have to go down to 18 (from Blyleven's perch at #5) to find a pitcher on the career strikeout list who isn't in or going in to the Hall. Mickey Lolich is close to 900 K's behind. (An aside, why not Lolich? His game 7 performance in '68 is just as good if not better than Morris' and he bakes a hell of a donut)

Did you forget to mention Jon that Blyleven is 9th all-time in shutouts? Ninth.

I grant there are borderline cases who are very good but not Hallworthy. Don Mattingly is one of those . . . . whoops. Heyman says he gets in. Really? You do realize you can put Donnie Baseball's entire career into that span of MVP votes for Blyleven don't you and have years left over?

I'd really like to know what the hell Bert Blyleven did to the writers during or after his career to engender such resentment? There is literally no other explanation. It was said Jim Rice had to wait till the end because he had a bad relationship with the media. But he got in eventually even though his case is far weaker. Moral of the story: don't screw with the ink stained wretches.

Joe Blanton

2010-12-16T06:44:00.000-08:00

Another Case Where ERA Deceives | FanGraphs Baseball

I am too late. Oh well. Dave Cameron throws the numbers out there that make sense.

Call the Phillies and tell them you'll take on ALL of Blanton's salary. Do it quickly.

Even before I read this, the first thought that crossed my mind when the Lee signing was announced was: the Phillies need to move some bad contracts.

This is EXACTLY the situation the Nationals should be exploiting. They have the financial wherewithal to take on salary at the major league level. If you take on all of his salary, the prospect cost would be minimal. Maybe the Phils don't want to trade him in the division. OK. But at least ask and don't even bother asking without offering to pay all of his salary upfront. No need or sense in being stingy.

Oh and if they fail on Blanton. Rumblings yesterday about the Yanks going after Carlos Zambrano. If the Yanks are going after him, it can only mean one thing: salary dump. And the Nats should be there when it comes to a salary dump situation.

Jayson Werth Signing Reactions

2010-12-06T06:55:00.000-08:00

Jayson Werth Signing Reactions: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Well its official. We have another Snyder on our hands.

Champs of the offseason.

Your Washington Nationals: The holy grail for every slightly above average aging ballplayer for the next decade.

I just have one question: Has ANY contract ever given to any player in any sport because you HAD to overpay ever worked out? At least worked out for the team not the player.

As for the "At least everyone knows we're serious players now" argument to defend this "deal" (or more accurately this surrender): yes, they know you are serious . . . seriously dumb. If they had given this contract to Albert Pujols, OK. Joey Votto I would get it. But the 13th largest contract ever, the 3rd largest deal to an OF in history?

To me, this puts all the Plan talk exactly where the more cynical critics had already placed it: in the garbage can.

Clearly, they have no confidence in their ability to build from within, no confidence in their ability to spot undervalued assets, no confidence in their ability to make marginal players better. Instead, they are going to flash the checkbook and hope no once notices.

Its hard to feel bad for someone who just got eight figures deposited in their bank account, but there is a twinge of sadness in me for Jayson. He seems like a decent guy not a prima donna type. Now, he'll forever be judged by the fact he totally failed to live up to this massive deal. That will be his legacy. In one fell swoop, he's gone from underappreciated to overhyped.

He'll be grinding out his typical season, the kind of seasons for which he's recieved lavish praise and all of a sudden, it won't be enough. He'll wonder why he's getting all this flak, he's just doing what he's always done. Then, he'll start pressing, trying to do too much and he'll go into a slump. Pressure mounts and the slump grows worse. Soon, he becomes the symbol for all that has gone wrong with another Nats season. If he's lucky, the team will at least have his back, if not they'll throw him under the bus as the reason they stink and the reason they can't spend to fix the problem.

So I guess I'm saying, Welcome to Hell Jayson. You're down here with us now but at least you can afford a bitchin a/c unit.

I want to believe

2010-12-03T11:42:00.000-08:00

The Inexplicable Non-Tender | FanGraphs Baseball

I really do. It seems so logical, burdened with the worst GM in baseball (Omar) and then Captain Leatherpants, the Nats finally had a GM who knew baseball and knew what he was doing.

Today, I'm shaken a little and it isn't because of:

Adam Dunn --- I can understand why they wouldn't give him the fourth year. Look at Todd Helton's 30s or the current FA and possible replacement Lance Berkman. There's a pretty good chance years three or four of that deal could look real bad.

So, you've saved the cash. Now, let me see what you are going to do with it.

A one or two year deal for Carlos Pena or Adam LaRoche would tell me they expect Marrero or Norris to be the 1B of the future. Let's hope that pans out. It's a risk but a reasonable one.

Remember folks, without SS, 2011 was going to be another lean year in Natstown anyway. So the first year of a Dunn deal would have been a waste. And years three and four wold potentially be blocking younger players from developing at the MLB level.

So i can accept this decision.

I can't accept Joel Peralta.

This is stupid on a hundred levels. Dave Cameron gives you the numbers, both saber and dollars.

Look at what the going rate for relievers is. A cost controlled Peralta would at least have been a valuable trade chip, perhaps a throw in to a bigger deal to sweeten the pot or save a prize prospect.

Stick him the closer role out of ST and if he performs, another Matt Capps deal becomes possible.

Now, not at all. You use the one commodity you have in abundance (major league appearances) and create value from nothing. Then instead of cashing in, you fold. Why?

Saw somewhere else in Natmosphere the w/l record for the team the last six years. The point was: look at how they have regressed from 81 wins the first year to back to back 59 win seasons and a mere 69 last season.

Allow me to retort: The disastrous drafts of 2000-2003 left this franchise with no cheap controllable talent. A high schooler taken in 2000 is 28 this year. IOW, in his baseball prime.

Ian Desmond was a high school pick way back in 2004 I think. And he just made an impact at the ML level last year. It takes time to grow and nurture a farm system. The farm was left unattended by MLB when they ran the franchise and we're paying the price.

Now, you could argue they could have overcome this by opening the checkbook and filling the gaps with overpaid mediocrities. I'll just say they would have had to make a lot of moves come out exactly right to build a contender here over any of the last six years. And the Nats weren't exactly being run by Branch Rickey.

Whether they have fixed the drafting problem will be told quite a few years down the road.

Second: those twin 59 win seasons? They equal Strasburg and Harper.

The baseball world is salivating over Justin Upton and rightfully so. How did the D-backs get him? A 53 win season. The Nats picked two pretty good years to suck worse than other teams in baseball and now there is the promise of cheap controllable talent way outperforming their salaries in the 2013-2015 window.

Throwing away Peralta means one less asset to use to collect talent for that window. And if this team won't spend internationally, they need all the assets they can get.

No need to roll loaded dice

2010-11-30T12:24:00.000-08:00

Nationals Inquisition » Nats Whiffing On FA Market Like An Adam Dunn At-Bat

You know what they call the football franchise in this area: Champs of the offseason.

And why are they called that? Because they spend every offseason blowing cash. Not spending it, but blowing it.

Can we even recall how many bad signings Dan Snyder has forced? And what has it got him? Nada.

Are we really lamenting the loss of Jorge DeLaRosa? Could 1 in 100 Nats fans pick Jorge DeLaRosa out of a police lineup? Would they know who he was if he walked into their livingroom with an "I'm Jorge DeLaRosa" t-shirt on?

No. They wouldn't. And he got three years and $33 million. For the Hispanic Jason Marquis no less.

Sorry to say this folks, but 2011 died the moment SS's elbow did. No amount of cash thrown around this winter is going to change that. So the objective for this offseason and next year is exactly the same as it was last year: develop assets for future use.

That means using playing time to either give young players a chance to establish major league value or use it to rebuild value in retreads and spin that into controllable young talent.

Overpaying mediocre at best veterans is just a stupid way to placate a fan base and a waste of the precious resources of major league playing time and a financial sinkhole in years when you are hopefully better.

Getting that #1 starter was always going to be tough. There aren't that many of them and they are constantly changing. On the open market, they command ludicrous amounts of money. On the trade market, they demand ridiculous amounts of prospect value. The farm system is better but it's not yet at the level to absorb a major three or four for one deal.

Now, I'm not totally going to let them off the hook for the lack of offseason spending. I am still wondering why I read about teams like the Minnesota Twins signing top Dominican prospects for couch change in the Lerner household.

And why could the Toronto Blue Jays buy a sandwich pick in a deep 2011 draft for $500,000 and the Nats couldn't?

I agree on Webb. It better not be money keeping him from signing here. That's all I'll say about that, unless he wants a guaranteed two or three years. Then, pound sand 9 innings in two years boy.

Aside from the big splashy moves, I would hope they are focusing on putting together a better bench for 2011 at the very least. It won't cost much and it would go a long way toward making the team more respectable. Give us at least one guy who can sit on his ass for eight innings and enjoy the game and then go up there and poke on out in the ninth.

This is how its done

2010-11-17T13:47:00.000-08:00

MLB: Detroit made a baffling decision in giving Joaquin Benoit a deal - ESPN Keith Law's ESPN blog --

The Blue Jays just bought a supplemental pick for $500,000 from Colorado by trading for Miguel Olivo and paying his buyout. The Rays paid $700,000 and got a draft pick plus 60 great innings of relief work. That's a relative bargain, and another pick to help them refill the pipeline of prospects they need to survive in a low-revenue market.

I just want one good reason the Nationals aren't leading the league in moves like these? $500,000 for a Top 50 draft pick? That's tip money to the Lerner's.

Credit where its due: Matt Capps was our Benoit last year. The finest example of what the organization should have been doing since 2005.

Playing around with the Nationals' payroll

2010-11-15T12:35:00.000-08:00

The Goessling Game: Playing around with the Nationals' payroll

About the same as my own back of the envelope calculations. (No way Wil Nieves gets an arbitration offer none)

The great danger with these numbers is: spending for spending's sake. Please don't bid against yourself for Carlos Pena. Please. I beg you. He isn't going to draw much interest.

As for Cliff Lee? there is some serious albatross potential there.

I hope they don't just think free agents. There are opportunities to use this excess 2011 payroll in other ways. Taking a big contract or two for example. Maybe the Cubs just can't take Carlos Zambrano in the clubhouse anymore. Or at least they can't justify his massive salary and being a clubhouse cancer. They have a first time MLB manager, maybe they'd like to just be rid of him. I know he was awful in the first half of 2010 and he IS in fact a clubhouse cancer but in the 2nd half he was close to his old self and sort of well behaved.

And hey, there are still international guys being signed. Wouldn't mind a little scratch going in that direction.

Sparky

2010-11-04T14:05:00.000-07:00

Legendary Tigers manager Sparky Anderson dies at 76 | freep.com | Detroit Free Press

It's strange to have feelings of loss come over you when a person you don't know, never met wouldn't know you if you walked up to him with an I'm "my name here" T-shirt dies.

It was that way with Ernie and George Kell. And it's that way again today.

I do actually remember who managed the Tigers before Sparky. Ralph Houk had a run in the late 70s and Sparky replaced Les Moss halfway through a season.

For my younger years, the Tigers had been bad. I missed, in blissful toddler ignorance, the '68 WS champions and the Billy-ball early 70s teams.

The Tigers were mostly non-descript with a tinge of if you squint real hard and ignore their all too often failures, they look like actual baseball players. I'm thinking Steve Kemp and Jason Thompson as the great symbols of that era. It wasn't until the statistical revolution that I came to realize exactly how god awful Auerlio Rodriguez really was.

Sparky ended the era of non-descriptness immediately. Now, he had Trammell and Whitaker and Parrish and Morris and Petry and Gibson et al but Sparky was the brand. The FoF if you will.

He just gave you a sense that the Tigers meant something, they were no longer doormats, they would scrap and claw and be in games. Never had a sense in the decade of the 80s, that the team was ever going in the wrong direction. And our guy wasn't going to be outmanaged nor would he back down from a fight.

Maybe that was his greatest quality -- he looked and sounded like an avuncular great uncle who would tell stories and display his knowledge and love of baseball at will but you always knew under the exterior there was an iron will and a perfectly formed set of principles which were unbending.

He'd play around with you but you knew there were limits and they would not be crossed. Not that you really ever wanted to. It seemed like a world of wisdom had been won at a great price based on the lines on his face. He came upon his knowledge and principles the hard way under a thousand summer suns on dirt infields all over the country and you could say what you wanted but he knew best (and you knew it too.)

Mostly, as a fan, Sparky made baseball fun. He was having fun, he was enjoying it and wanted everyone else to share it. You can't ask much more out of a baseball manager but to say he made being a fan a much more rewarding and entertaining experience.

Godspeed #11

Dunn With Dunn - The Countdown

2010-11-02T11:25:00.000-07:00

NationalsFanboyLooser: Dunn With Dunn - The Countdown

Cheer up. This is the season of optimism. There will be plenty of time to be negative once July comes around again.

It's easy to be on a winner when you have teammates like Longoria and Price but Dunn has never been part of a winner so he stinks?

Bottom line on Adam Dunn -- he's been an above league average player every year he's been a regular. He'd be a difference maker as a DH.

Pena? Underrated because the two things he does well walk and play defense are hard to quantify. Net I'll bet the swap would be close to even except in the Lerner's wallet and that's what is really important.

I'll be unhappy to see Dunn leave. I understand why and if he can get what he deserves from an American League team, God Bless him. He's earned it.

The real lesson from the Giants triumph should be: all it takes to win a World Championship is two dominant starters a couple of upside guys and a strong bullpen. Period. Hell the Nats had a much better offense than the Giants. Edgar Renteria? Cody Ross? Andres Torres as key pieces? How bad was Pablo Sandoval this year and they still won the division.

Think 2012:

Strassburg=Lincicum

J Zimm=Cain

Sanchez=Detweiler

Bumgarner=??????? (Don't have an answer here)

Wilson=Storen

This is of course best case scenario. But it takes a little luck to win. Where would the Giants be if that violent delivery shredded Timmy L's elbow? Nowhere.

Oh and as a note to the Lerners? The Giants won the WS even with Barry Zito cluttering up the payroll. Please don't take this as an invitation to grossly overspend on pitching but look at it as spending what you need to in order to be competitive.

Nationals Baseball: The Greinke Options

2010-10-20T14:08:00.000-07:00

Nationals Baseball: The Greinke Options

First, you really overvalue the baseball trade market. Look at what recent pitchers better than Grienke went for:

Roy Oswalt for J.A. Happ outfielder Anthony Gose and shortstop Jonathan Villar.

Seriously, J.A. Happ and two unknown prospects. A finesse lefty and two not even close to ML ready prospects. And that was during the season when teams are supposed to be bidding wildly for starters.

Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke, and second baseman/outfielder Matt Lawson. Smoak is a ML ready guy but his rookie year didn't set the world on fire now did it. And Leuke's some kind of criminal! Throw in two other unknowns and you have the modern day Sandy Koufax!

Point being, the trade market isn't what you think it is. Remember this: the team that gets Grienke also gets his financial obligation . . .two years $27m which the Royals would now not have to pay. That's an additional asset to the Royals which drives down the prospect cost.

So your Options A & B are ludicrous. Never happen. Nor should they.

Would the Royals look askance at a Norris, Espinosa, Milone package? I think not. It doesn't contain a certifiable breakout star but it does contain three pieces almost certain to help you on the major league level for the next five to six years at minimal cost too.

It would come down to what the Royals wanted. Do they want one prime near ML ready prospect and couple of lottery tickets or do they want a solid return on investment across several prospects? Might be surprised what Dayton Moore would do.

The Nationals Aren't Really Going After Cliff Lee, Are They? - Half Smokes - SB Nation DC

2010-10-15T14:58:00.000-07:00

The Nationals Aren't Really Going After Cliff Lee, Are They? - Half Smokes - SB Nation DC

Why not?

Why are the commentariat all damn sure this Cliff Lee thing is a head fake, a fraud?

Aside from the fact that it would be a insanely stupid thing to do to give a 30+ year old pitcher a long term big money contract in the first place, why couldn't the Nats sign Lee?

Do these people not know that the team is owned by a billionaire? With a B. Not an M a B.

The gap between the Nats payroll currently and the payroll the Nats can and should support is at least $20m and closer to $40m. You can fit a Cliff Lee in there.

Quite frankly, the Nats SHOULD be considered as a destination for big money FAs. They have a huge media market and a fan base with loads of disposable income.

We can argue about spots on the success curve and stuff like that. I don't really see why they'd want to sign Lee. But to say they can't is ridiculous.

Now trading for a Grienke or a Matt Garza . . .

The 2010 Season

2010-10-04T20:02:00.000-07:00

Just saw ESPN's retrospective of the 2010 season on Baseball Tonight.

All the perfect games, retirements and big moments.

The sum total of National's appearances: I counted 4.

Strasburg of course.

And not one, not two but three separate Nyjer Morgan meltdowns! Yeah Nats fans the enduring legacy of a 69 win season: a mediocre CF with anger management issues!

Report: Nationals unlikely to re-sign Adam Dunn because of defense (and one scout is insane) | HardballTalk

2010-09-28T09:26:00.000-07:00

Report: Nationals unlikely to re-sign Adam Dunn because of defense (and one scout is insane) | HardballTalk

Goessling quotes an opposing team's scout as saying that "the only person in the front office who wants to re-sign him is the owner."

You can make a convincing case for not resigning Dunn -- in fact with where the Nats are in terms of the success cycle (maybe on the very bottom of an upslope?) having Dunn for 4 years at first may not be an optimal use of resources.

But to say you are concerned about defense . . . so how'd that Nyjer Morgan defense thing work out? Go ask the Red Sox about their focus on defense.

Now, since you are collecting groundball pitchers, it makes sense to have a strong infield defense. Zim check Desmond check (hoping more experience lowers the error total) Espinosa check and ???????

You've already got three of four. And I might point out the fourth is the least valuable.

Personally, I love to watch Dunn hit. If the Nats resigned him I could talk myself into that. Dunn represents a certainty -- he may not be worth what he'll be paid over those four years but he'll come damn close. Most likely scenario -- he's the 2 win player he was as an awful left fielder/incredibly valuable bat.

I could also construct a case for letting him go. But there are two caveats -- 1. Arbitration must be offered. Two picks minimum signed and delivered. 2) The resultant savings MUST BE SPENT. And not on Jon Garland or anyone like him. Either Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford or international FAs (rumors floating that Yu Darvish may be posted this winter. That's an excellent use of any Dunn savings)

I'm pretty confident in #1. That had to be the plan without the July 31 deal. I am less confident in #2.

If you think I'm off base, with Soriano the Nats did #1 but failed at #2.

The owner in this case looks at the situation and says: Dunn is more of a sure thing. I opt for security. Again, it's not my money on the line. I couldn't kill the Lerner family for making that choice.

Rizzo and the scouting staff say: we opt for risk. We're going to get other players with the Dunn salary who hopefully work out and make us better in the long term. Not sure there is anyone who could be brought in who would be as sure a contributor as Dunn.

Of course, it could be as simple as -- we've got an extra $12 million to stuff in out couch cushions. Hurrah!!!!

I wouldn't say Stan Failed at all

2010-09-23T14:39:00.000-07:00

Stan Kasten failed?

I beg to differ.

What exactly were these "decisions" Kasten made that failed? Was it to let Alphonso Soriano become an overpaid albatross on the payroll of another national league team while adding a young #2 starter?

Yes, I know 205 losses the last two years. I understand that. And we all know who you blame for the dearth of talent at the major league level.

But what exactly were Stan's options? Would the Nationals be better off as a franchise if he had gotten his way (allegedly) and opened the pocketbooks?

Who would the Nats have signed? Mark Texeria? C.C. Sabathia? Sure, the Nats would be a better team assuming they had chosen to spend wildly on premium FA's who alos happened not to decline precipitously (A.J. Burnett anyone?)

Don't give me any BS about the Nats making a trade for an established starting pitcher like Roy Halladay or Johan Santana? Why?

Because of the root cause of the current state of the franchise: the ownership tenure by MLB.

Take a good look at the Nats/Expos drafts this century. There were 4 exceptional picks prior to the Kasten regime: Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Jason Bay. What do they all have in common?

Oh, THEY WERE TRADED AWAY BY THE DOPE THAT RAN THE TEAM FOR THREE MONTHS OF FATOLO COLON AND SOME SCRUB I CANT REMEMBER.

Go ahead amateur GMs. Try and build a winning team without one single useful young player on it. I'll give you $100m. Try it this offseason. See where you get in three years. Nowhere is where you get.

Cheap, young controllable talent is the key to success for any franchise with salary limitations. You don't need one at every position but you need enough so you can overpay on the FA market to fill the holes. YOU CANT OVERPAY FOR EVERY POSITION! Not only would it be a terrible investment but it's very likely to not work anyway. I for one am damn glad Stan couldn't talk the Lerner's into my dumb ass idea about John Lackey. How'd you like to have four more years of that overpaid crapbag stealing paychecks.

The strategic decision, who ever was responsible, was the most correct one given the circumstances. Imagine where this team would be had the last two years resulted in 81-81 finishes? Oh, there would be no Strasburg, no Harper. Just a couple of Detweiler clones most likely.

Should they have spent more to get better faster? Yes. They should have signed Chapman. They shouldn't have cheaped out on the rest of the '09 draft. But the only inference from saying Stan failed is to say they should have spent on mediocre free agents to fight for .500. And that was exactly the wrong strategy (See KC and Pittsburgh)

Finally, you want people to show up at the ballpark? Simple: Win. Follow through with a long term strategy and build a perennial winner and the stands will fill. Just look at the Caps for gods sake.

A least someone cares

2010-09-02T08:51:00.000-07:00

Reaction from Nats clubhouse - NATS INSIDER

"We decide when we run. The Florida Marlins will not decide when we run. We will decide when we run. Nobody will decide when we run."

Well said Riggs. Well f*&^%$ said.

At least Nyjer cares. He's still playing baseball. When this team should be doing nothing more than running out the string, at least Nyjer puts the Nats at the top of Sportscenter.

Now as to keeping Nyjer into 2011 -- well unless his OBP rises or his defense improves, he's not worth a roster spot even if he was A.C. Green. That more than anything should lead to the end of the Nyjer Morgan era in Washington.

Which means Job 1 in the offseason is to find a high OBP, defensively gifted CF. Good luck with that Mike. Not like we're asking for much. I don't even have a ridiculous suggestion.

Nationals Journal - Rob Dibble no longer broadcasting Nationals games

2010-09-01T15:00:00.000-07:00

Nationals Journal - Rob Dibble no longer broadcasting Nationals games

"Rob asked for some time off," Kasten said at the time. "Perhaps he's not feeling well. But I'm not a doctor, nor have I seen his records. So I shouldn't say anything more about it."

Kasten's comment referenced the comments Dibble made about Strasburg on his Sirius XM radio show when, in the days between Strasburg's elbow injury and the revelation he would need Tommy John surgery, Dibble questioned Strasburg leaving the game.

BullS*&^.

Dibble was cashiered for the shopping comments not the Strasburg ones.

What exactly was so wrong with what he said about Strasburg? Maybe he didn't tow the company line about how SS was handled but if you are telling me MASN announcers are on that short a leash then we really shouldn't believe a damn word.

Now, personally, I'm happy Dibble is gone. Didn't bring much to the broadcast at all. Ray Knight is far better for a baseball fan. He may not generate much on the excitement meter but you can't have everything.

ESPN Fantasy Stephen Strasburg likely to miss rest of '10

2010-08-24T14:52:00.000-07:00

ESPN Fantasy Stephen Strasburg likely to miss rest of '10

It's the right thing to do. And screw Rob Dibble and his pitch through pain . . . arms that can get MLB hitters out are precious and should be protected. If that means err on the side of caution, then OK.

The list of guys who could have been is WAY longer than the list of guys who were. No telling how many of the never weres could have been had they taken precautions.

We know what a healthy Strasburg can do. That's all we need to know for now.

I shouldn't rise and take the Dibble bait. Taking an unpopular opinion and then attacking enemies is standard self-promotion behavior and to ignore it is the most effective action. So, a supurb display of inertia by Bang Zoom

MLB Confidential: The Financial Documents Baseball Doesn't Want You To See, Part 1

2010-08-23T11:12:00.000-07:00

MLB Confidential: The Financial Documents Baseball Doesn't Want You To See, Part 1

Oh please, please please let us see the Nats!

Jim Bowden for the last time

2010-08-20T07:24:00.000-07:00

D.C. Sports Bog - Jim Bowden on the Lerners, Dmitri Young and D.C.

The next time I hear a former GM of any team in any sport be so forthright about the failures of his tenure will be the 2nd time.

And his analysis of the PR situation was spot on. His resignation (or firing we really don't know for sure) closed the door on the Natinals era. And truth be told, not all the mistakes that plagued the team through his tenure were his fault. Yet his leaving the scene absolved the current crew of all past sins (including those of the marketing and player development side) and for that the current management owes JB a debt.

I do have to say that while I admire his ability to correctly judge and admit his failure as a GM, I do have to take issue with his basic philosophy. Sure, Dombrowski in Detroit overpaid for Pudge and Ordonez but he also had Verlander Granderson and other cheap above average players that made his team a contender with the overpaid FA's. The Nats are still building that base and having Texeria wouldn't have changed that.

And if the interviewer really wanted to grill him on a bad FA signing, Meat Hook's isn't the one I'd go after. Try Guzman's first deal. 4 years????? And losing a draft pick by not waiting till the Twins declined arbitration? Double plus stupid.

Finally, Kevin Mench. Really. That's the best you could do. Kevin Mench. While having a power threat on the bench is something the team has needed all season, with a plethora of AAAA hitters available, why take one who obviously isn't going to do the job? Maybe he's just a placeholder, a timeserver but I fail to see what the point is of having him taking up space on the 25 and 40 man rosters. Although I won't get to exercised about it since in 10 days or so it won't matter (unless he keeps getting valuable major league ABs).

It's a bad day to be a hater

2010-08-16T08:13:00.000-07:00

Nationals Spending Big On Draft Picks: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Fan F*%^#%$ Tastic!

Could not be more pleased. Simply could not. Did EXACTLY what they need to be doing.

My only other wish would be for them to answer the call from Used Car Guy tsk tsking them for their smashing the slot recommendations and them telling Selig if he hadn't F*&$%^ up the franchise so badly when he ran it, they might not have to. But give the s*$% sandwich they bought, they had to.

Absolutely no question 2010 draft is a success. Even without Harper. Worst case now: 2 top 10 picks in a loaded draft in 2011. Not optimal but not earth-shattering either.

For some reason, I just haven't seen Jason Marquis pitch yet this year. Or if I did during the first go round, the experience was so short and traumatic I just blocked it out.

Can't really say what's wrong. Don't know why he's regressed from his normal mediocre to historically bad. But no matter. It simply serves as a cautionary tale.

I didn't like the signing because I didn't see any long term value in it. $15 million for two years of league average pitching? Why? Rather, I wanted to take a chance on high risk high reward guys like Ben Sheets and Rich Harden. Well, they failed just as miserably as Marquis. The moral of the story being: pitching is a crap shoot even in the proven veteran category.

Must be consistent

2010-08-10T09:03:00.000-07:00

Nats release half-price coupon code for Stephen Strasburg’s return � Let Teddy Win!

I was critical back in June when the team was coy about letting fans know when Strasburg would make his first start. So I suppose I should count it as a success they are actively marketing his return from the dead shoulder era with discounted tickets.

It may be a little on the huckerstish side but that's the essence of marketing. They have some sizzle and they need to sell it. Reflects a new attention to detail and organizational competence that is encouraging.

From John Sickels review of the KC Royals Top 20 prospects:

3) Aaron Crow, RHP, Grade B: 5.66 ERA, 90/59 K/BB in 119 innings in Double-A, 130 hits. Was just demoted to High-A and gave up 10 hits and eight runs in his first start. No way to spin this season as anything positive.

Can we FINALLY move on from the "Crow debacle?" Would any of you trade Storen for Crow right now? Would any GM with half a brain? Oh and Storen was a few million cheaper too. Double Plus Win!!!!

Show us the money

2010-08-08T09:17:00.000-07:00

MLB: For the Washington Nationals to rebuild, August 2010 is crucial - ESPN

If they nab all three guys, which would be expensive in the short term, they'd have a legitimate claim to having one of the best draft classes overall, potentially accelerating the rebuilding process GM Mike Rizzo has been putting into place since he got the job last spring.

No further commentary necessary. Write the checks or you aren't serious about winning period.

I'll tell you how it feels. It feels freaking great!

2010-07-30T06:58:00.000-07:00

How will Wilson Ramos fit into the Nats Future?

to be on the winning side of a trade. And that's exactly where the Nats find themselves this morning.

I don't even care if Wilson Ramos is the second coming of Wil Nieves. I don't care if he would end up 4th on the Molina family depth chart, it's still a win simply because ITS EXACTLY WHAT THIS TEAM SHOULD BE DOING!

They even sent CASH to the Twins. Meaning they are paying Capps salary this year. And I'm sure that's why they were able to pry Ramos away, Capps came free and he'll be under team control for net year too. Ohhhh how tough it must have been to pry those pennies from the Lerner's hands but at least they did it. Credit where it's due.

As for Ramos, no need to start his clock. Should wait till September to bring him up just to be sure since he spent a few days in Minnesota earlier this year. Next year he should at least be given half the job pointing toward ownership in 2012.

Oh and an unconventional suggestion to replace Capps in the bullpen . . . Chuck James.

Right now, there is no one in the Nats pen who matches up with left handed batters. Burnett is death against lefties. The three lefty's in the Chiefs pen all have warts of one sort or another (I am not ready to ride the Ron Villone express again). James has major league experience and has a Cliff Leesque 31/2 K/BB ratio at Harrisburg.

If only they were this caution with ALL their pitchers

2010-07-28T09:05:00.000-07:00

Another Strasburg milestone: The first scratch of his career - Big League Stew - MLB� - Yahoo! Sports

One theme (among the few I beat to death) has been the seeming inadequacy of the team in dealing with pitching injuries.

The same refrain has happened time and time again . . . pitcher is OK maybe even showing signs of competence. All of a sudden they begin to get rocked. Ascribed to any number of reasons, the pitcher continues to pitch. Then, a "missed start" or "we're holding him back a day or two"

Finally, we get the "Paging Dr. Andrews" call. And the inevitable quote "My arm/shoulder/elbow has been sore for a while. I just tried pitching through it."

See Mock, Garrett, Lannan, John, Stammen, Craig (2009), Zimmermann, Jordan (2009) and on and on and on.

So, when the Meal Ticket complains about being unable to loosen up, go right ahead and get the MRI.

And if you are pissed you paid full price because of Strasburg, remember what was said about that Reds home date in early June . . .

The Plan must include Chris Marrero as the starting 1B on Opening Day 2013. That would explain the two year offer to Dunn and the unwillingness to go to three or four.

Dunn plays everyday in 2011, Marrero apprentices at AAA. 2012 Dunn starts, Marrero still at AAA but gets called up around June 1. Either Dunn becomes moderately useful deadline trade bait or he powers your drive for the NL East crown. Two successful seasons by Dunn should allow him to keep Type A status and make an arb offer easily declinable for him. Two picks come back and poof new starting 1B in 2013.

Prudent strategy I have to admit. And well worth sticking to your guns. Now Dunn @33 > Marrero @25 means a downgrade at 1B in 2013. But you hope the downgrade could be covered by the extra $14million freed up in payroll (yes I am silently laughing to myself at such a thought)

All I ask is: if you must trade Dunn get quality back in return. Don't sell short like AZ did in the Haren deal. The smart teams know Dunn is a difference maker, make 'em pay the price.

Oh jeez. Must we

2010-07-26T12:10:00.000-07:00

Nationals' Dunn visits Brewers broadcaster Uecker in 2nd inning - Big League Stew - MLB� - Yahoo! Sports

get our fruit of the looms in a twist over this.

Ohhhhh. It's a GAME. A sacred and holy GAME.

Think about that for a minute. It's not surgery or nuclear power plant operations. It was a GAME. Played for sport and entertainment value.

And people go ans ascribe all kinds of meaning to it. Oh, the guy is disrespecting the GAME. He's being insubordinate and is clearly showing his disdain for the progress of his contact talks.

Dave Cameron over at USS Mariner wrote a piece today about the flare up in the Mariners dugout over the weekend. His main point: beat reporters and obsessive bloggers are terrible

amateur psychologists. They don't know what's going on iin the heads of people they cover on a regular basis. And you know what: neither does anyone who is freaking out over this situation.

How many times does a hall of fame broadcaster return from serious heart surgery? A broadcaster beloved (I assume) inside baseball. And one who clearly had a rapport with a visiting player who just happened to not be playing that day. A confluence of events almost impossible to imagine. And I continue, not likely to manifest itself again.

So, to show a true mark of respect, the players, who is NOT playing and could have been asleep in the clubhouse for all you knew, went to pay public homage to a beloved broadcaster and friend on the air. Three words: BFD!

I'm sure Uecker loved it and I'll bet the fans listening got a kick out of it too. The sum total of enjoyment for baseball is increased. I find it impossible to care for the critics and their narrow view of baseball purity. Make the GAME as accessable and fun as possible and maybe you can save yourself from falling further and further behind football.

I also see where the Nats as "listening" to offers for Matt Capps. They aren't making calls but a listening. My advise: listen harder. Capps has been a far cry from last year's bullpen by gasoline can disaster but what really is his long term value and how much will it help next year when he's twice the price? The Yanks offered Jesus Montero for Joakim Soria!!! Got to be someone halfway decent in the Yanks system for a "proven closer tm"

Going to be positive today

2010-07-22T09:54:00.000-07:00

Across the Affiliates | Nationals Farm Authority

Just for once. Just to see what it's like.

Interesting day yesterday as the Nats potential #1, #2 & #3 starters were all pitching.

And all three were effective.

I don't think it takes much imagination to envision the opening series of 2011 as a Strasburg/Zimmermann/Detweiler trifecta.

To me, that would give the Nats a chance to win all of those games. Or at least, it would mean the starting pitching wouldn't be the reason for another terrible start.

What it means for now is: trading for a prospect whose ceiling is a mid-level starter is really less important. Fixing the holes at 2B and CF are far more important (and to a lesser extent RF). In many ways, that is a much more difficult challenge. TINSTAAPP means teams might be more willingto deal a pitching prospect especially one with a limited ceiling since it's very likely that the prospect never develops.

But a major league caliber CF or 2B? Lot less likely to give away. Catcher too for that matter.

How much in free advertising do you think the nationally televised ESPN game last night was worth? Even led Sportscenter -- meaning even more free publicity. Adding this to the financial impact Strasburg is having on the team really makes the $15m he got seem like a steal.

Wrong wrong wrong

2010-07-21T13:51:00.000-07:00

Bullpen trade market 'a flip of the coin' - ESPN

"They're so focused on building that team back to respectability," an AL executive said. "To them, finishing seven or eight games under .500 is a lot better than finishing 15 games under .500. It means a lot to their business moving forward. In the end, I think they should consider trading him. But they don't seem that motivated to do it right now."

Not this s*^% again.

If this represents the thinking of the FO, then we're all screwed. Or at least condemned to a Pittsburgh/Kansas City/Baltimore like descent into perpetual mediocrity.

Yes, winning breeds attendance and revenue. But unless you go 35-5 in your next 40 games, wins in 2010 mean jack s*&^.

Holding out on Dunn, as I've gone on and on about elsewhere, is fine. He's a difference maker and should command a premium.

Matt Capps was FREELY AVAILABLE last offseason. He's replaceable. And you have the one card that could make Capps (and Guzman) worth a prospect with a shot at helping you down the road . . . you can pay their salaries!!!!

2010 was never about 2010. It should have always been about 2011 and beyond. Keep your focus there and skip this short term thinking. Two or three more wins this year isn't going to fill the place up. Two or three more wins next year or the year after when you have a better team, then your investment pays off.

And kudos to the FO for finally making a big international FA signing. About damn time. Now let's get this Cuban Craig Stammen into the rotation before we find out he actually outdueled Jamie Moyer at the Little League World Series.

Tired old memes

2010-07-20T09:36:00.000-07:00

Nationals Inquisition � A Problem Like A Donkey Named Dunn

The case for dealing Dunn isn't so cut and dried:

Dunn wants 4-years/$60 million: If true, it is absolutely insane for a 30-year old masher who strikes out just as much as he puts the ball in play. His defense is below average to average at best and the National League doesn’t DH so why the Nats would pay for one, I have no idea. Thinking about it, he might actually be able to get that sort of deal– but not in D.C. He shouldn’t.
Dunn Is Going To Be 10-and-5: MASN’s Ben Goessling pointed out something yesterday that is very important: if Dunn stays with the team and gets a four year deal, in the final year of that deal Dunn would be eligible for 10-and-5 rights and would be able to block any sort of trade. That isn’t territory you want to enter with a slugger who is going to break down more than build up at his age. Good find, Ben.
Does Dunn Even Want To Be A Nat?: We know he says he wants to stay, but come on. An aging vet who never has tasted the playoffs doesn’t want the opportunity before he has to hang it up? Isn’t that what these guys play for? Dunn signing with the Nats to begin with seemed like desperation to just get on the field rather than an actual desire to play for a last place team.
They Could Always Re-sign Him: The Nats could always trade Dunn at the Deadline and with it being his Free Agent year, they could always re-sign him during the off season if he truly likes it in D.C. Hell, it might be the best “take one for the team ever.” The Nats are all but finished this season, Dunn goes to a contender after getting traded and gets his chance at the playoffs while the Nats get valuable prospects. Then, in the off season they re-sign Dunn. So by next season the Nats could rake in both prospects and Dunn and lose nothing. It is a fantasy situation, but it is one to stroke yourself over if you think about it.

1. "tired old masher who strikes out as much as he puts the ball in play" -- please stop. Even at his worst, Dunn's bat has been a huge plus every season he's played. All the K's do is limit BA upside. I will note the K's also lower the DP chances . . . think the Nats would be better off if Pudge could K a few extra times! At 4/$60 he'd be a bargain next to Ryan Howard who he resembles in many ways. Of course, Dunn's a BETTER defender at 1B than Howard so there's that. Let's say Dunn's a 4 win player for the next four years. That's worth about $12-$14m per. The Lerner's can afford to overpay slightly, they have the money.

2. 10-5 rights. Who cares? First, it's in the last year of his deal. Second, you'd only want to move him if your "rebuilding" effort has failed completely so what's Dunn's incentive to block a trade? Yes, he'll have extra leverage four years from now, is that a reason to accept a substandard return NOW?

3. So what you are saying is Dunn should take less money to play for a contender? Really. Because that happens all the time. Bottom line is: high bid wins. No one knows who will be good or terrible two years from now. And Dunn seems to be a decent clubhouse guy -- he's no Yunel Escobar at least so there aren't chemistry issues which might drive down the price.

4. I guarantee at least one team will look at Dunn and say as a 1B/DH we can get a highly productive hitter for much less than what Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez would cost. Also, Dunn is going to be a Type A free agent and he will get an Arb offer. So to trade and resign will cost your 2nd round pick -- even more reason to hold out for a much higher prospect price.

One has to look at Cincinnati. They certainly don’t seem to be missing Adam Dunn in their line-up.

Teams NOT better off with Dunn @ 1B this year: San Diego, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Detroit, Boston . . . umm ahhhh anyone else? Texeria's been terrible, Dunn's been better than Howard & Fielder and Morneau's been hurt. For everyone else, Dunn represents a massive upgrade. Yes, the teams he's played on have sucked and his play in LF was a part of the suck. But he's not responsible for 90% of the suck and even at his glovetastic worst, he was still a net plus.

Again, I don't disagree with the trade Dunn route. I only disagree that it's a must trade situation. Guzman, that's a must trade situation. Capps should be a higher trade priority since his value will never be higher between his relative success and the thin reliever market and his cost certainty next year.

Trade Dunn but only if you get a premium. Hudson, Tyler Flowers and Christian Marrero take it or leave it Kenny.

He doesn't know them very well

2010-07-19T14:12:00.000-07:00

Not�many quality position�players available�at MLB trade deadline - Jon Heyman - SI.com

5. Adam Dunn, Nationals 1B. One GM called the asking price "prohibitive.'' However, GMs can still see the Nationals dealing Dunn, whose big power should make him an attractive rental even with what's left of his $12 million 2010 salary, then perhaps signing him back as a free agent. The Yankees could envision him in Yankee Stadium, aren't focused on starting pitching anymore and would like to make up for missing out on Lee. The Angels make sense, too, with the loss of Kendry Morales to injury, and so do the White Sox. "They should probably move him, but the Nationals do some curious things at the deadline,'' one GM said, referring to their decision to keep Alfonso Soriano a few years back and various trades. They also are a rare potential seller that might be able to take some well-salaried players in return, putting them in a unique situation. "They could do unusual deadline deals,'' one GM said, meaning they could seek proven players back, not just prospects.

6. Josh Willingham, Nationals OF. The productive hitter has 15 homers and 49 RBIs and would be popular as a trade chip. But one competing GM, noting Willingham is under the Nats' control through arbitration another year, said, "I think they should keep him.'' Yet another hitter who could help the weak-hitting Giants.

"Could take well salaried players in return" "could do unusual deadline deals" HA HA HA it is to laugh.

They have had this ability since 2007 and it hasn't happened. Why is 2010 any different?

If they decide to trade Dunn, "prohibitive" is the starting point for what they should get. Remember, Dunn WILL get an arb offer and he will command "A" compensation so that really kills the trade him and resign in the off season strategy.

At 4/$60 -- that's not terrible. Barring injury, Dunn's likely to return close to $15m a year or at least he'll give you a solid $10m. I mean he's unlikely to veer into total albatross mode even throughout the length of the contract. Now 5 years or a few million more . . . then you'd think a little too much. Dunn's 30-34 year old seasons should look at lot like 2009-2010.

Wouldn't Jim Thome be a reasonable comp? Lots of power, patience mediocre-fielding 1B and he was pretty productive through those years in Philly.

Of course that the safe play and if there is one theme I've established it that this team isn't in a position to take the safe route. The only chance to really improve substantially in the medium term would be to get a haul for Dunn. At least one real impact player, preferably a bat and some other pieces. Now for this course to work, it would require 1) actually getting the impact prospect and 2) a willingness to spend the resulting savings. I'll grant you 1 is a crap shoot even for the best of GMs. 2 is totally within their control and as of 2010, they have not shown that willingness.

Didn't see the games this weekend but I sense a little panic button pressing throughout the Natsmophere.

Hey, that Josh Johnson guy, he's pretty good. Can't use that excuse yesterday though. Sometimes it goes that way in short stretches. It does highlight an ongoing problem and it isn't the 3-4-5 hitters. 1 & 2 haven't been doing their jobs (not that we had any reasonable expectation they would) all season.

Offseason assignment Mike: find a 2B with a high OBP. Or a centerfielder. Not asking much only the least plentiful commodity other than true #1 starters.

ESPN: Nats have several conversations regarding Dunn � DC Pro Sports Report

2010-07-13T08:28:00.000-07:00

ESPN: Nats have several conversations regarding Dunn � DC Pro Sports Report

The ramification of dealing Dunn away will filter through the Washington Nationals lineup. The fact that Dunn is already starting to sour on a desire to ink a long term deal with Washington deflates the notion of trading away Dunn, and then resigning him in the off-season. So we do what? Trade him for prospects? When do the Nationals decide they don’t want to be a prospects team, a build for the future team, and instead be a winning team? When?

When? I'll tell you when. WHEN THE TEAM DOESN"T SUCK!

This was a 70 win team when the season started and is still a 70 win team. The window for contention is years away (and thanks to the cheapskate owners may never appear.)

Paying Dunn the open market rate for the next 3-4 years wouldn't be the worst thing they could do. Giving him Ryan Howard money well that's another story. If he's demanding a Howard-like deal, put a stamp on him and send him packing.

Oh, and make someone pay a premium. Since he's proven to be an average fielder at first, his bat would be worth 2-3 wins to anyone. Ask the 2009 Tigers if they could have used 2-3 more wins. The Cliff Lee to the Rangers package is a good place to start one ML-ready guy with significant upside one B prospect and one C prospect. If you don't get it, offer him arbitration. If he takes it GREAT! One year at $13-$14m. If not, two picks (your B and C prospect at least)

Some might argue Dunn deserves a Howard-like contract. My main fear, aside from the eventual performance decline is such a huge outlay would give the cheapskate owners an excuse to continue their pattern of not spending.

Let's review . . .

Tell me how many high profile international free agents the Nationals have signed this year. It rhymes with NERO. In five years in DC, the total rhymes with PUN. And he was really 22. So it's not like Miguel Cabrera or Ubaldo Jiminez is sitting in the system preparing to join the core.

I'll give them the 2008 draft. They spent there.

But now according to Ladson, they haven't even discussed a contract with Harper. And again I am baffled. It exactly the same as the Strasburg negotiations and I didn't under stand that either. I know Scott Boras makes deals at the last minute and that's his style but come on, you have an excellent chance of hitting 300 losses for the last three years, shake things up.

Boras is a businessman. Stan, you are going to have to pay. He knows you have the money and he knows you have to sign Harper. So, why the charade? Give him Strasburg's contract and say if you sign now, we can get Harper to the bigs a year earlier. That's worth millions more than the dollars you are scrapping over right now AND it only hurts financially IF Harper is successful at the major league level.

And please, don't cry poverty. You have plenty of cash -- the $30-$40 million you aren't spending in major league payroll and the Strasburg bonus $750,000-$1 million per home date. Show the fans that you are interested in building a winner by getting the Harper deal done NOW. Oh, and A.J. Cole too. Without Cole, your 2010 draft is just as bad as 2009 (1st round excepted in both cases).

I also find it hard to believe that a cash strapped but contending franchise like the Rangers wouldn't be interested in some payroll relief. Take a bad contract off their hands and take one of their multitude of top tier prospects. Jon Daniels wouldn't like it but I'll bet the bankruptcy court would.

The plain fact of the matter is: with Dunn they are a 70 win team. Without him, 67-68. Is that what you want to be? Keeping him would be fine, if ownership was committed to putting the pieces around the core necessary to contend sooner. But clearly, they have not been and are not now. So, every day this is the case, the window for contention gets pushed farther and farther away.

As a fan, Iike watching Dunn hit. I'd like to watch him hit for the next 3-4 years too. But I don't like it so much as to ensure 90-100 losses for the next four years.

BTW -- check what KC and Pittsburgh are doing internationally.

Dunn deal coming for club? | MLB.com: News

2010-07-06T11:25:00.000-07:00

Inbox: Dunn deal coming for club? | MLB.com: News

It was teased as "Ladson says Nats will be buyers" and I was ready to rain on that parade.

Really, what it says is the Nats won't do much at the deadline. Not likely to trade a lot of pieces but to make trades to make the team better. Folks, you can't pay enough for that kind of insight.

It was a 70 win team when they left Florida and they are still a 70 win team. They are sellers or they should be, sellers of anything and everything. If someone is actually thinking of trading for Willie Bloomquist, then you have to get Willie Harris out there fast. Capps, Kennedy, Guzman GONE.

Repeat after me: winning in 2010 is worthless. Anything that can convert a present asset into potential future value MUST be done. Worst thing a team can do is try both at the same time. Doesn't work. Never works. Unless unending mediocrity is your goal then two thumbs up!

They are who we thought they were

2010-06-29T11:55:00.000-07:00

Nationals Journal - Believe it or not, Stephen Strasburg didn't have his best

They were never playoff contenders. OK.

Never. Get over that nonsense now.

They out performed their fundamental state for two months. Teams do that some times. Some keep it up for six months, some do it for a weekend (that's you Baltimore)

But most of the time, teams find their true level. And this one has. It always was and still is a .425 team. 68-70 wins roughly. That's better than '08 and '09.

It's not time to panic, it's not time to say "what went wrong?" Or make foolish and rash short-term decisions based on a fluky couple of months.

The 2010 season was never about the 2010 season. All the at-bats, all the innings pitched, all the fielding chances needed to be used as much as possible as training tools for future performances. Young players getting reps and getting comfortable as major leaguers. Older players creating trade value. And whatever the hell Willy Tavares was doing.

Now that the bubble has burst, let's get back to this model. As such, please keep Desmond here and in the starting lineup. I know, 19 errors. Many of the gut busting type like last night. Keep in mind two things. First, his range and arm make up for these brain fart errors. Second, it's a lot easier to get rid of mental errors than develop physical tools.

July 2nd is fast approaching. How many international players are the Nats going to sign? Any of note? Going to get any of the top draft picks signed anytime soon? If not, why not? Why are you burning a year of development time? How much will you save a couple of hundred thousand maybe. I don't think the Lerner's will miss it.

Finally, be creative. Ted Leonsis hasn't been running the Wiz for more than a couple of weeks and he's already figured out how to leverage his below cap payroll to get future assets. You can do the same. What would the Cubs do to get rid of Carlos Zambrano and his albatross of a contract? What would they throw in just to be rid of that commitment? The Bulls gave up a first round draft pick to be rid of Kirk Heinrich and his onerous contract. Z's deal is far worse. I know there is no cap in baseball but $20m is still $20m. The Cubs would have to listen if you offered to take on Zambrano and most of his financial liability ifthe Cubs gave you say Josh Vitters?

Some other things: the All Star game is an exhibition. It's theater. What the public wants to see are the best players or more properly, the most popular players. Think a inning of Stras against the AL all stars wouldn't generate interest? Damn straight it would. Does he deserve a spot? Of course not. It won't happen either mostly because we consider an all star game invite on the short list of player accomplishments (Former AL All-star Robert Fick for example)

Trading Dunn -- I hate to say it but if you can you must. There are a couple of differences between the last time Dunn got traded and this one. The first is: the Nats WOULD offer arbitration and hence get the draft picks. No doubt about that. Second, Dunn has proven he COULD play the field in a way so as to not destroy the massive value of his bat. Not that an AL team would need that but it's nice to have. I wouldn't trade him just to trade him however. Dunn would change the dynamics of the AL race tremendously. He'd be worth 2-3 wins all by himself for the rest of the season. Maybe more if he replaces some really bad DH combos. Think the Sox or the Yankees want to face Dunn in the post season or Andruw Jones? I think I know the answer to that one.

Capitol Punishment: Tough Guy Rizzo--A Washington Nationals Blog

2010-06-22T08:31:00.000-07:00

Capitol Punishment: Tough Guy Rizzo--A Washington Nationals Blog

As with most things sports (and life in general), there is a lot that goes on behind the scenes.

I'm sure there is more going on here too. Just like you can't convince me Elijah Dukes did something to warrant his expulsion (and subsequent blacklisting).

I'm of the opinion Lannan's hurt. Now, he's always lived on a knife's edge, he's survived with low K rates and low BABIPs for a couple of years. The worm may have just turned and he's really no different than Matt Chico.

But with the track record of this organization (and I know it started with the late, unlamented previous regime) they have continually been late to the party with pitching injuries.

Pitchers get hurt. It's a violently unnatural act. Some people are born able to do it without incident but most aren't. It seems to me the operative assumption of any baseball team should be: we need to CLOSELY monitor all our pitchers and pounce on any sign of diminished performance as an injury flag.

With pitch f/x data, this shouldn't be too hard. You can track velocity and break over time now. What was it like last year? What's it like now? Does it change during an outing?

I know all about small sample size. Maybe a guy just doesn't have it that day. Fine. But I doubt it would take a mad statistical genius to notice disturbing trends. Trends that may elude even the practiced eyes of baseball lifers at full speed.

As a lifeline of hope, check out what Ricky Nolasco did after his temporary demotion last year. Pathetic to start, demoted, came back and was a top 10 pitcher the rest of the way. (Don't look at 2010 as he's back to suck mode.)

Not saying Lannan will turn it around like that. But if he's not hurt, maybe there is something to the psychological approach.

A.J. Cole, HS Pitcher - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia

2010-06-08T10:52:00.000-07:00

2010 Draft Scouting Reports | Draft Report: A.J. Cole, HS Pitcher - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia

I absolve you Riz for any and all past sins IF you can get this guy signed.

I can't freaking believe they took a tough sign in the 4th round. I'm speechless.

I just don't want this to be a Dodgers situation where they drafted a guy in the first round who they KNOW they aren't going to sign so they at least get the pick next year. Although if I were Frank McCort, why wouldn't I want to give away as much of the marital assets as I could before the big split?

Harper will be what Harper will be. All-star, HOFer or mammoth bust. There really was no skill, no gamble with him. They didn't have a choice and have to pony up to sign him.

But this pick is Far more important from my point of view.

This pick says finally we're acting like the big revenue team we are. We can take tough signs later in the draft and get them into our system. Not only can we (which they've been able to do but haven't) but they actually WILL.

I would have rather seen Workman instead of Solis and Paxton rather than the SS from Rice but I won't quibble unless Cole is matriculating this fall rather than pitching.

The Mayor of Natstown

2010-06-06T20:34:00.000-07:00

Here he is. Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez

For about half an hour before Saturday's game, Pudge was positioned just to my left of the cages and held court. Nats coming out of the cage would chat, the circle surrounding him rarely was empty.

Notably, one Red after another came up to Pudge, words were exchanged, smiles all around and then athe common bro shake/hug. It didn't seem to matter if it was coaches, veterans or rookies they all seemed to want to pay their respects.

I'm not sure if this is what they mean by veteran presence but it sure seemed like it.

One other note. If you ever find yourself on the field before batting practice and you want player autographs do to things.

1) Be a kid. Kids getr all the attention.

2) Have the kid wear a visiting team jersey.

Saturday Night Stan

2010-06-05T21:58:00.000-07:00

It only took the opening statement.

"Welcome to the PNC Diamond Club. Isn't it great! We've just upgraded it and we're going to be doing more"

It wasn't the content. It was the delivery.

This was a man who could sell ice to eskimos.

I was in the presence of a master salesman. And I don't mean that in a derogatory way. It was clear from the first sentence, this was a man who had mastered the art of persuasion. The art of filling the prospect with confidence, with a sense of excitement, with a urge coming from deep within that not to buy would be the biggest mistake that could ever be made.

And he made it look so easy. That was perhaps the most impressive part. He wasn't even turning it on full blast. He didn't need to. But I could sense another gear he could kick on at a moments notice and that would have that monorail built or leave you with twenty bottles of Dr. Quackenbush's Medicinal Tonic.

I can't say if Stan will make the right decision all the time. But I am supremely confident the Nats will never be out negotiated. Not going to happen. Do your best Scott Boras, you are against a master.

He took questions. I should say I attended Blogger Day on Saturday June 5th and one stop on our tour was the PNC Diamond Club to see Stan Kasten do an Q & A with the high roller ticket holders.

A kid gets the microphone and asks him if he could have his autograph.

"That's the cheapest thing you'll find at Nats Park!"

Do you think Strasburg will make the Nats the premier team in town?

"We sell more tickets than any other sports team in Washington!"

Are you happy to see two draft picks from 2009 in the majors already?

"I'm just offering some advice. Signing quickly can get you to the big leagues fast!"

The Phillies are coming back to town in July. What will you do about the problems we had on Opening Day?

"None of us was happy about Opening Day." Message: I care "We didn't do anything special on Opening Day. We've taken steps to change but we can't tell you what they are." Believe me, if you heard it, you would absolutely believe changes will be made and the will work!

A young kid asked Did you have to fight to get Strasburg on the Nationals?

Fight? Oh you mean sign. Ha ha ha. Good question. There was an "energetic" back and forth all summer. Many excited conversations. I wasn't in on any of them, it was all Rizzo. In retrospect, I suspect Steven told his agent he was ready to plan and to get a contract he could sign.

Why is Strasmas June 8th?

Totally driven by baseball operations. Totally. Just followed the plan and fortunately the plan has unfolded like we hoped.

Thanks folks. Have a great time and I'll be circulating now.

And just like that, he was off the stage and ready to work the room.

Bravo, master. Bravo!

Ray Knight

2010-06-02T19:12:00.000-07:00

I know we Keyboard Kommandos love nothing more than ragging on people with real jobs and real accomplishments.

So, I'll just say this: I like Ray Knight in the booth.

The last two nights he's had no problem criticizing the Nationals, players and manager when they do something that deserves it. And he does it in a direct manner leaving no doubt about where he stands and why.

He's told me things I didn't know about the game rather than the recitation of what I've just seen with my own damn eyes. Yes, I saw he swung and missed at a curveball thank you Captain Obvious.

But just a minute ago, Knight quickly and concisely told me WHY Desmond just booted a ground ball he should have had. Big league hitters are so strong they put so much topspin on the balls they hit shortstops HAVE to charge and catch the ball on the short hop.

Or just the inning before, explaining what Pedro Feliz did wrong on the safety squeeze and what he should have done.

I'm sure most people went Huh? Why the F do I care about what foot Feliz should have stopped on but I find it fascinating. A little nugget of hard won baseball knowledge passed on to us the unwashed masses.

Quick comment on the Oswalt situation.

The problem with Oswalt is: he's too good. He may not be entirely worth his contract but he's real close. That means the Astros can ask for and will get very good prospects back for him. I'm not sure the Nats are in a position to make that trade. I'm sure they aren't a real contender (and they are proving it here in Houston right now). Oswalt is a guy who could tip a pennant race and for that matter a whole postseason. Some real contender will get that and make a Godfather offer.

Joe Posnanski � Blog Archive � Bryce is Right?

2010-06-01T09:39:00.000-07:00

Joe Posnanski � Blog Archive � Bryce is Right?

If Pos had gotten his first job in South Florida, would he have be in on the ground floor of Alex Rodriguez? Or maybe Cincinnati when Junior came out.

Maybe he goes to the Minneapolis paper in the early 90s and sees high school uber athlete Joe Mauer. Mauer, also a hometown boy just like Gordon, was drafted BEFORE his generation's Strasburg Mark Prior.

The point being yes not every hyped high school baseball player pans out. But Earl Cunningham is no more or less significant than Joe Mauer. It's a crap shoot and the odds are against you in the draft. Any draft. Even football where they have football factories cranking out professional football players aged to perfection and coached up.

If you had to bet your mortgage, you'd have to bet Harper will not be a multiple time All Star caliber player. That's the most likely result. But the Nats have to put their chips in and harper gives them the best chance of cashing in.

Was that so hard?

2010-06-01T08:25:00.000-07:00

And so it was written: Strasburg to make Nats' debut on June 8 - Big League Stew - MLB� - Yahoo! Sports

Seriously? Was it. That's all we wanted, a firm date. And look, its a sellout! An extra 20,000 fans at $50 average means he'll earn back 1/15th of his initial contract! That's effective ROI

I'm still suffering from battered fan syndrome. I don't want to believe but I can't muster much of an argument.

They're running pretty close to their pythag record now. It's 52 games and they are still a .500 team. And it's not like they've feasted on weak sisters either.

I suppose I could cite Livan!'s remarkable run, Pudge's fountain of youth and Atliano's 5 wins and say these are flukes likely to regress to the mean.

But how bad has Nyjer Morgan been? And the back end of the rotation has been consistently mediocre at best. Not a lot of help from the pen other than Clippard and Capps. Won't even discuss right field.

Maybe all you need to compete in the National League is three great hitters in the middle of your lineup and enough pitching and defense to keep games close.

You have to just wonder: this 2010 Nats team is making statistical oddities like Livan! Lannan and Atliano look much better than they should. What could they do behind a true top shelf pitcher? Or will they actually do worse?

I suppose the best thing to do would be to carefully study all the other teams in the National League. I see the Nats flaws sharply, they stand out while the successes kind of fade out of mind. I mean is the Mets situation appreciably better or worse than the Nats at this very second? Starting the year I'd have said the Mets are better but looking at it today I'm not sure at all.

Was there a hitter for the Astros yesterday you had any fear of? Lee and Berkman should be those guys but they didn't seem so yesterday. Michael Bourn was their only spark and slap hitting speedsters do not a high scoring offense make.

So that's two teams I wouldn't trade lineups with. I'd trade pitching staffs with the Pads in a heartbeat. Those guys are good and young. Jed Hoyer's built quite the pen but they only have one hitter who you don't want to face (Adrian Gonzalez).

Being by nature a pessimist, I'll hold to my belief that this team is still on the underside of the success cycle. That means even if you have to sacrifice the .500 team you have right now, moves should be made looking to the future rather than August and September.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see meaningful baseball in DC in the fall. I'd just rather the team make smart decisions in the long term interest of building a World Series contender year in and year out over one fleeting post season hope. I'm sure the lure will be tempting with all the positive publicity they're getting with Strasburg and the #1 pick and a team that isn't historically bad. Get a Roy Oswalt and try to capture the DC market.

Winning over time will capture the DC market. Keep that in mind.

Capitol Punishment: Getting Creative With Strasburg--A Washington Nationals Blog

2010-05-27T07:28:00.000-07:00

Capitol Punishment: Getting Creative With Strasburg--A Washington Nationals Blog

Apparently some are kvetching about the bait and switch the Nats did with the 6/4 date, getting a sellout on a game that otherwise would've seen 18,000 miserable souls. Really... what the hell are these people thinking? They've got no reason to complain. The team (almost to the point of absurdity) didn't say a damn thing about when he'd start, and they went out of their way to say that they WEREN'T going to announce it.

I do blame the team and here's why:

There is NO reason for them to NOT tell paying customers what they will or won't be seeing on any given day.

Hey, U2 is playing Friday night at the Verizon Center . . . or maybe Sunday. Buy a ticket for either or both you never know what you are going to get.

It's an entertainment product. People want to pay to see Strasburg pitch. So why the FUC* is it a national secret when some dude is going to toss a baseball?

The coy jackassery of "well we never said when we're going to bring him up" is the real outrage. They have complete control over that decision, they could do it at any time for any reason. And they chose to make that decision in such as way as to squeeze sales from their fans they wouldn't have otherwise gotten.

Why were the Keyboard Kommandos dabbling in speculation? Because of the complete lack of anything resembling candor from the front office. And why wouldn't they just come out and say here's the plan? Give me one reason why it wasn't possible to say our plan is for him to pitch X innings at AA, Y innings at AAA and then (if he pitches well) to bring him up June X so we can control his arb clock. That's called honesty. Instead we get BS platitudes and outright lies. Oh and if the lies and speculation puts a few extra sheckles in our pockets, it's not our fault.

Does anyone buy the BS about pitching from the stretch and learning to handle being a professional ballplayer. Point #2 seems kind of obviated by Mike Leake, he didn't need a two month primer on being a big league ballplayer.

Would it have been terrible to say: We want him to pitch in Harrisburg and Syracuse X number of times as a measure of good faith in our farm clubs? Who could blame them for that? That's actually smart business and they would be applauded. Hell, you could even call Strasburg's extra AAA start an investment in player development for the long term.

It's not what they are doing but how they are going about doing it. No one believes they had not decided long before now about when he was going to pitch and where. They chose not to disclose that information and as a result of their lack of candor, they made millions. Congrats. You hoodwinked the fans. Aren't you sooooo smart? Like how we surreptitiously sold opening day ticket packages to Philly fans . . .

Yes I am going to go there. This kind of business is Snyderian. And one Snyderian sports team in the area is one too many.

Joe Posnanski � Blog Archive � Diary of a Losing Team, 5/17

2010-05-18T08:16:00.000-07:00

Joe Posnanski � Blog Archive � Diary of a Losing Team, 5/17

Please read this and mentally replace the word Royals with the word Nationals.

The Nationals have made fewer developmental mistakes than the Royals I will grant you that. But in terms of leveraging their greatest asset; time, they have been just as bad if not worse.

I would add that the Royals don't have the resources the Nationals command. Even so, the Royals have paid above slot in the draft for multiple players over the past few years AND they have been active internationally. This despite the fact they gave former Nat Jose Guillen $30m+.

2011, 2012, 2013 those are the years to be aiming at.

A bullpen audit reveals some problems for Mets, Nats and others - Buster Olney - MLB blog - ESPN

2010-05-17T09:46:00.000-07:00

A bullpen audit reveals some problems for Mets, Nats and others - Buster Olney - MLB blog - ESPN

The feeling among rival executives is that they are apt to be aggressive before the trade deadline, the kind of team willing to take on a contract -- like Oswalt's -- that might appear oversized to other teams. The Nats' window of opportunity is opening, and Storen's promotion so early in the season tells us that they will work like crazy this summer to climb through (in spite of their three-game slide in Colorado)

This is the money quote from Buster's column this morning. One, if these "rival executives" believe the cheap ass owners of the Nats are going to open the vaults for any reason, they are seriously mistaken. (I note but don't link to, the fact that the Cincinnati Reds signed ANOTHER Cuban defector. The Reds. With their puny media market. They could afford to spend money on a lottery ticket for the future and the Nats wouldn't. That tell you all you need to know about the willingness of this team to spend)

Of course, I could be wrong and the Nationals could decide they are "in contention" and would make a play for Oswalt or another big contract. I seriously doubt two things about this scenario: First, the fact they would actually pony up the dough and two the contention that this team is in any way shape or form a contender.

News flash: it is not. It wasn't at 20-15 and its still not at 20-18. You are two games over .500 with otherworldly performances out of Livan!, the ancient Pudge, and Clip and Save. With historically bad RF production. With a bench that is at best atrocious and at worst a joke. This is not a contender. Please don't think a month and a half of .500 baseball makes you into one. Stick with the Plan such as it is. Be sellers. Get more assets, get a RF for the future, get more pitching, get a real 2B (hey how's about Kelly Johnson??? Oh wait, he was freely available for a little bit of the Lerner's cash this offseason and well THAT's a bridge too far, spending cash.)

I know the marketing psychology: hey we need to show the Washington baseball consumer we will do everything we can to win. We'll build some momentum with SS and Storen in town. Add a high profile trade and we can market a lot more sizzle this summer.

I don't even necessarily OPPOSE a trade for a overpriced veteran. I've lobbied for such things in the past. My only reservation is: overpaying. If the Nats want to take bad contracts off the hands of other teams, I am in favor of that. I am not in favor of actually paying any price in future baseball talent for the privilege of paying overpriced veterans. Leveraging the asset of massive payroll room would be a good thing, make a trade to add a high priced veteran at the expense of future assets with the thought of actual post season contention is a delusion and a terrible mistake.

Not that we will ever know, but if the theory the Storen call up is a reward for an easy signing then I have to question the wisdom of such a deal. Calling him up now means a shot at Super 2 status and essentially getting Storen to arbitration a year early. That's potentially a $3-5m swing. Is it worth the risk for these few weeks? I don't see why. BUt I am glad he's here now.

The sweetest words I've seen all season: Willy Tavares DFA'ed. Should I feel bad the guy lost his job with a kid on the way? No. Not when you've pocketed millions over the past two years. Willy: enjoy your kid and take what's left of Cincinnati and Oakland's money and buy gold.

So long Brian Bruney. It was a decent risk and it just didn't pan out. Call us when you can find home plate.

cybercritics

2010-05-13T07:05:00.000-07:00

MASNsports.com -

Please make a note of this Phil Wood column. I want to pull it out later this year when the "grittiness" and "knows how to win ness" isn't there anymore.

The Nationals are 19-15. That is a fact. It is also a fact that they have been outscored on the year 160-144. Over the long history of baseball, teams that are outscored by their opponents tend to lose. At least they lose more often than they win. Now for short stretches teams that are outscored win more than they lose. How do they do this? Normally, they win a lot of close games (check).

For a baseball historian like Wood, it shouldn't too difficult to remember a similar situation involving the Nationals. 2005 -- the first year. 50-31 in the thick of the postseason race. Remember that Phil? What was that record in the second half? 31-50? Yep. It was. What powered that amazing first half? Yep, a lot of close wins.

I am one of those cybercritics he talks about. And I have no problem staying with my analysis. Last year, when Wood and other were calling the Nats the worst team of all time, I was forever pointing out they were not as bad as their record indicated and things would improve if only by dint of regression to the mean in terms of luck.

I was right then and I say now they will regress to the mean again. They weren't as bad as they appeared last year and they aren't as good as they appear right now. I'll take any odds you want on Pudge winning the NL batting title (I get the field) and Livan! winning the CY. They will regress, Clip and Save will regress they will find their level. I'll enjoy the ride as long as it lasts -- the only thing that worries me is: a Preston Wilson moment. Fans can buy into the grittyness causes winning all they want, just make sure the FO doesn't. Remember where you are on the success cycle, you are still at the bottom fellows and you need to act that way.

Now, I reserve the right to change this analysis in early June.

Because I watched the first five innings of last nights Norfolk/Syracuse game. I'm no scout so I'll just repeat what I heard Curt Schilling (a guy with some creditability on the subject of pitching) say: "I've never seen anything like this."

I'll bet the FO is not too happy MASN showed that game. Because if anyone watched it, they would realize this stint in the minors is all about arbitration. This is the correct decision for the long term prospects for the franchise. So, please stop insulting the intelligence of any half sentient baseball fan by saying anything other than that.

Right now, today the bottom third of most National League lineups would stand virtually no chance against SS. And the top half's might turn around a couple of those 96 MPH fastballs, they might punish the one or two hanging curves he threw but for the most part they would look exactly like the majority of Norfolk hitters did last night: totally helpless. Scott Moore couldn't have put a tennis racket on the ball.

I think my favorite moment came when Steve Grilli, the color guy, said on a 3-2 pitch after a nasty FB on the black, he just needs to throw a get it over curve and he'll have a strikeout. Then SS threw a 12-6 bender that bisected the strike zone. I wish I had a freeze frame of the hitters face -- eyes rolled up in utter disbelief.

I say I reserve the right to change my opinion after SS joins the rotation because one time in every five for the rest of the season, the Nats will go into a game as the favorite. Maybe Timmy L, Halladay or Wainwright might make it a toss up but that's it. If nothing else, 1 in 5 games will be worth watching.

(I didn't think about Zach Grienke before I typed this section. One ace starter does not a decent team make. However, I will grant you the Nats supporting cast is better than the Royals and that will make a huge difference.)

Who do YOU trust?

2010-05-07T12:32:00.001-07:00

A baseball resolution:

Rob Dibble: "Is it frustrating sometimes to watch Adam Dunn be so patient? Because he had three walks early in the game and then he took some pitches in the extra innings that, if he was a DH in the American League, you'd want him to hack at those, but sometimes Adam's looking walk and he's got a certain thought process, have you discussed maybe him expanding his zone from time to time?"

Jim Riggleman: "I tell you what, Dib. You hit it right on the head. You know, that's been discussed many times, people in the organization have had a lot of history with him, like Tim Foli from the Cincinnati days and so forth, and [Hitting Coach Rick] Eckstein and myself and others have mentioned to him how much damage he could do by not taking as much, and you know, I can't explain it, but there's just something about these guys, I mean you can go back to the history of Ted Williams in the game who they say they used to try to get him to go out of the zone a little more and swing at some pitches, and he just either couldn't do it, wouldn't do it, wasn't comfortable with it, it messed up his game or whatever, but, I know what you're alluding to, you know, I felt the same way in the last inning, if he airs one out there, who knows what happens. But, he's selective up there, his OBP is usually up around .400, it's been a successful style of play for him, but I hear what you're saying, every now and then you'd like to see him go out of the zone and hit one even if it's the other way."

Hmmmm. So do I side with a big mouth relief pitcher and a manager who is a baseball lifer but hasn't won anything of note or do I side with THE GREATEST HITTER OF ALL TIME!!!!!!!

Ted Williams didn't swing at pitches out of the strike zone and he should have. Ole Teddy Ballgame, Hub Bids Kid Adieu subject was just dead wrong in his approach to hitting.

First, avoid outs. News flash: out are bad ummkay. Second, if he starts swinging at pitches that aren't strikes he will make MORE outs. Now once in a while he'll get a hit on one of those pitches but the pitches out of the strike zone are KIND OF HARD TO HIT ANYWAY! Swinging at pitches off the plate means YOU GET LESS STRIKES THROWN OR LESS PITCHES IN AREAS WHERE YOU CAN HIT THEM HARD. IOW, you trade a couple of extra hits for a whole bushel basket full of outs. Not a good trade.

Noodle this through: if a pitcher could get a batter out without throwing him a strike, would he do so? OF COURSE HE WOULD. So expanding the zone is an open invitation to get fewer pitches to hit in an at bat.

Now the argument would be: Well not in ALL circumstance should Dunn expand his strike zone. Just key ones. Hmmm. So I have to throw Dunn a strike with 2 outs no one on in the 1st but two on two outs in the 9th and I can toss any old slop up there and he'll be hacking away? It's MORE important to be selective in key situations . . . . put the pressure on the pitcher to throw strikes. Sometimes the pitcher wins. It happens. Turning Dunn into a Christian Guzman clone is a bad idea from start to finish.

Nationals Journal - Scott Olsen has been a keeper

2010-05-07T07:22:00.000-07:00

Nationals Journal
- Scott Olsen has been a keeper

He certainly has been. Whatever he and Livan! Clip & Save are doing, make every other pitcher in the organization do it too.

Whatever it is, it makes guys pitch way over their heads, at least for now. I goes to show, you take a guy who had been mediocre at best over four major league seasons, throw in shoulder surgery and poof, you have an ace! I know Olsen can't keep this pace up but I also knew he wouldn't be an asset to the Nats this season just a few weeks ago. So what do I know?

I don't know about anyone else, but this first 28 games have been odd. I keep expecting a losing streak, a week full of losses one after the other and it hasn't come yet. I'm still surprised if I turn on the game halfway through and the Nats are leading. I simply don't expect it yet. Perhaps a few more weeks of this win as many as you lose and that will change. And maybe that makes the add old guys to help win a little now strategy valid.

On another note, Colten Willems retirement puts a cap on what looks to be a disastrous 2006 draft. Running down the draft order and seeing emerging players like #28 Daniel Bard 6 slots after Willems . NL ROY Chris Coghlan at #36 Colby Rasmus at 38 Joba Chamberlain at 41 Wade LeBlanc at 61 (2 slots after unsigned Sean Black) how about another young Red Sox Justin Masterson one spot after bust Stephen Englund.

Aside from Chris Marrero (who isn't exactly blowing the doors off in AA so far) you have to go all the way down to 151 to find someone still in the organization who may advance Cory Van Allen.

Two guys have come and gone and come back (and likely won't amount to much in Glenn Gibson and Zech Zinicola.

Doug Fister and Davis Freese were plucked by other teams in Rds. 7 & 9 respectively. Nats 9th rounder Sean Rooney still around but I've no idea about the Nats 7th or 8th rounders.

#289 Round 10 Tampa Bay takes Desmond Jennings a JC OF. Like to have him right about now.

Here's a good one: Round 11 #331 Nats take Desmond Jones? RHP. Pads take at #333 Mat Latos. Ouch

Erik Arnesen, Adam Carr and Tyler Moore are the only other draft picks I recognize. That's a pretty weak draft by any standard.

Nationals Journal - John Lannan to miss next start

2010-05-04T14:26:00.000-07:00

Nationals Journal
- John Lannan to miss next start

Another Nats pitcher covers up arm soreness, pitches terribly, then gets an MRI. Stamman & Zimmermann last year and Lannan, Marquis and Mock this year. How many more arms is this team going to sacrifice?

Don't the coaches notice when one of their guys is off? Can't they tell a guy is not throwing with ease? They never hear the guy complain or hear him say OWWWWW after snapping off a curve?

Riz, you have a problem with baseball operations. I know pitchers get hurt but c'mon. These are your prize assets. It does no one any good to have them out there throwing BP and getting hammered. Do something to sniff out these problems BEFORE they take to the hill and either A) stink B) get further injured or C) BOTH!!!!

Nats320 -- A Washington Nationals Blog: Inside Pitch Live @ The PNC Diamond Club

2010-04-26T08:31:00.000-07:00

Nats320 -- A Washington Nationals Blog: Inside Pitch Live @ The PNC Diamond Club

Mark Scialabba--Director Minor League Operations: "Jeff is a really exciting player to watch. He runs very well. He’s got quick wrists. He’s strong and aggressive. He’s got the approach like Cristian Guzman when he swings the bat--and we like that." I don't like that. I don't like it at all. I'd be happier if he didn't swing as much as Guzman does. Now the pitches he DOES swing at, go ahead an Guzman them all you want.

“The scouts also have a relationship with the players. And once we get them into our system, we begin to instill in them The Nationals Way--playing the game, playing the game hard, playing the right way. At that point, they really begin to understand what discipline is on a professional level. Coming out every day, being on time, be ready to play--have respect for your managers. So we want good character in our players. That’s what our scouts really try to acquire. However, sometime makeup and character don’t always mesh. You can have players with really good makeup on the field, but are problems off the field in character. We try to instill good character, discipline in our players off the field, not just on the field--through our coaches, employee assistance program, through out trainers--we just try to instill that discipline from the top all the way down to the bottom of the minor leagues.” -- Now we know why Elijah Dukes is unemployed.

Rizzo: "When you trade for Bartolo Colon and trade away the young talent they gave away in that trade--to win today because your sight is only on today only--is the main lesson I learned from that situation.”

Good god YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Perfect, awesome, outstanding. I like the fact that you reference a deal from this organization even though it was before your time. Keep the memory of that debacle alive as a warning to others.

Now, please take a second lesson from this hot mess: It pays to be the team DEALING the overrated vet. You get better faster that way.

Mike Rizzo: “Those are certainly breeding grounds for players. They have quite a passion for the game also. 33% of all players in the major leagues are not from the amateur draft. So they are being acquired through international scouting, signing the players and those types of things. It’s become a huge focus for all the organizations in baseball to be successful internationally. We made steps in that direction and made a focus on international baseball.” -- As absolute a non-answer as you will find in the greater DC area. And that is saying something since DC is the #1 producer of non-answers to actual questions in the world. "Steps in that direction?" a "Step in that direction" would be writing a check.

Unrelated note: First Potomac Nationals game of the year on Saturday. Marcos Frias gave up two home runs but nothing else. Martin Beno struck out four . . . and on three of them the catcher had to throw the guy out at first. IOW, he got 3 K's on balls in the dirt. I don't know if that means he has a great breaking ball or if it means he had a 55ft curve and A ball players can't tell the difference.

The P-Nats won 4-3 because of Pat Kelly. Who's Pat Kelly? Why he's the Lynchburg manager who had his 1B playing one step from the line in the 8th Inning with Burgess at the plate and no outs. One routine ground ball DIRECTLY at where the 1B usually plays later and the P-Nats had the tying run on base. I could understand it somewhat if they were playing the Ryan Howard/Adam Dunn shift for a dead pull left hander but they weren't. To my thinking, it more likely for Burgess to hit a ball where he did rather than just over the bag so playing to prevent the off chance of the extra base isn't worth increasing the chance of a lead off single. As it turned out, that's exactly what happened.

Lombardozzi on base 4 times. Patient and had some good swings.

Pretty sparse crowd for a Saturday night. Ended up pelting the crowd with foam Microsoft windows figurines obviously ordered for a full house. Rough estimate would place the number distributed at 20,000 for a crowd of maybe 750. At least the firework show was impressive. Good job on that Mr. Silber!

To Be a Fan of the Washington Nationals - Charles Krauthammer - National Review Online

2010-04-23T08:19:00.000-07:00

To Be a Fan of the Washington Nationals - Charles Krauthammer - National Review Online

I don't even know where to start. I could go with the hey moron if you are such a fan then you must know the '10 version of the Nats is not appreciably better than the '08 and '09 versions just a lot luckier early.

But that point is up for debate. You are what your record says you are and the Nats are (right now) a .500 team a 23 game improvement at current rates.

But to pen a hymn to the joys of losing? Yes, I'd like to go to the opera and hear Britney Spears hit the high notes. Or I'd like to see The Situation as Willy Loman. Because watching an artful or athletic skill done at a sub optimal level is what it's all about. I'd rather watch Willy Tavares ground out weekly to short than see Albert Pujols take an outside low fastball and deposit over the right field wall.

Now I suppose if your intent on going to the ballpark is to be seen, to mix and mingle with mover and shakers in an atmosphere of relative serene peace and quiet then well Nats Park is for you. Goodness knows the unwashed masses who would show up and cheer loudly for a winner would make it impossible to discuss the finer points of US foreign policy with an undersecretary of state while noshing on a brisket.

Losing only tells you one thing: You are doing it wrong! But in Washington, doing it wrong gets you a subsidy so I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.

30 for 30, "Silly Little Game": Turning fantasy into reality

2010-04-21T11:16:00.000-07:00

What's Alan Watching?: 30 for 30, "Silly Little Game": Turning fantasy into reality

A missed opportunity.

They spent so much time fooling around with those useless "re-creations" they didn't give us any real story or context for fantasy sports in general.

Nothing about the statistical revolution in sports and especially baseball partly as a result of fantasy sports. I mean Bill James was self publishing his abstract in the 70s. It wasn't a coincidence (nor was it entirely a result of the widespread adaptation of computers) that statistical analysis of baseball became far more advanced than any other sport.

Partially, it's a result of baseball's nature but a lot of it was young people playing the game then using their developing skills to devise how to better predict baseball players performance.

We get just a hint of that with Okrent's invention of WHIP and the study he did to come up with the 8 categories. But it ends there. Nothing about all the projections systems that were developed afterwards. All these developments led to the smarter baseball fans of today AND to much smarter decisions being made by GMs of real baseball teams.

They spent more time talking about how they didn't make any money off their invention. Boo freaking hoo. I guess you'll have to settle for being editors and writers of major national publications. So sorry.

They also didn't really capture the feel of playing the game itself. Aside from Lee Eisenberg, I know nothing about the other 9 players except they were Phillies fans and they were obsessive about baseball. The original Rotisserie League could have stood as an example of almost every league ever created. Different personality types, different playing styles and of course all the gamesmanship.

Gamesmanship like the massive flaw Okrent's original design contained . . . one discovered a few years later by (I may be wrong but I think it was Alex Patton) who devised the punting wins gambit. Now, almost no one plays 4x4 or if they do they have an IP minimum. Nothing about the difference between keeper leagues and non keeper leagues. They never explained HOW these guys kept talking about baseball over the winter. It ratchets up the dork factor 100% when you go into long term contracts and minor league keeper rules.

Then nothing about different variations that have evolved H2H: daily leagues, dynasty etc.

The most interesting thing for me was finding out Mike Schmidt for $26 was the first player ever drafted. They should put THAT on his HoF plaque.

Nationals Journal - Jason Marquis will stay on schedule

2010-04-20T10:13:00.000-07:00

Nationals Journal
- Jason Marquis will stay on schedule

"I still believe that Marquis is going to be Marquis at the end of the day." -- that's the problem Mike. We're waiting for him to turn into the average starter he's always been. Woo Hooo

I hate to be a downer since 7-6through 13 games is miles better than the last two years. But really how different is this team from the one's that started so badly? One defensive replacement in New York results in one win, Zimm's hammy keeping him out of the line up and allowing him to bat in a high leverage situation garnered another. How would we feel about 5-8 with the same stats we have now?

I'm just not convinced yet that this team is appreciably better than the '08 and '09 versions. Strasburg may change that all by himself but it shouldstill be crystal clear that this is a major rebuilding job and gaining a few wins this year is not worth not gambling on future assets (e.g. trading Josh Willingham. What would the Red Sox give up if you offered them Hammer AND offered to take Big Pop-up's contract off their hands? Wouldn't they clean out the prospect cupboard?)

Don't get me wrong. It's a far far better thing to see a National make Top 10 plays for his glove work and not for having a jersey spelled wrong.

The Bryce Harper Watch: Counting down the days until another game of chicken with Scott Boras.

2010-04-13T09:50:00.000-07:00

The Nationals Enquirer: The Bryce Harper Watch: Counting down the days until another game of chicken with Scott Boras.

"Assume the position, Mr. Lerner."

It would be a total switcharoo wouldn't it Nats fans?

Imagine that. A $10m signing bonus. That would cut operating profit by almost a third!!!!! Next stop -- Portland.

Signability shouldn't be a concern -- the guy skipped his senior year of HS to get draft-eligible a year earlier. His team has a clear grasp of the time value of money. And to counter the "He has leverage since he's only 17 and could easily go back into the draft in 2011" argument -- aren't they negotiating a new CBA? And wouldn't one of the things the owners would want that the players association would be more than happy to give up is a rookie salary scale. Call me crazy but if I'm running the players union, that's the first deal I make -- how much more will the owners commit to player salaries in exchange for cost control through the draft process? My guess is quite a bit.

I'm less concerned about the #1 pick -- I'm more concerned they will once again use it as an excuse to go cheap in the rest of the draft.

What can we say about this team after seven games? They are who we thought they were comes to mind. I suppose a sunshine up your ass partisan could argue the veteraniness of this 2010 Nats meant a better start than the last two seasons. .500 after six games!! That's progress.

More likely, just getting even luck early rather than the spate of bad luck that happened in '08 and '09. Weak starting pitching, a porous bullpen, and a punchless line up (I excuse the Hammer) all adds up to a rerun of last summer.

I may be speaking too soon since they could be 3-6 by the time they leave Philly and well on their way to 5-19.

Think about this. Just squeeze a smidge from the operating profit and we would be looking at TWO 100mph throwing SP candidates entering the rotation in June. Tell me that wouldn't give this team instant creditability.

And finally thank you Houston Astros. You may yet save the Nats from the ignominy of three straight #1 overall picks.

Washington Nationals Weighing Right Field Options... - Federal Baseball

2010-04-07T11:01:00.000-07:00

Washington Nationals Weighing Right Field Options... - Federal Baseball

Is there anything to say about Opening Day (at least on the field.) Was anyone surprised that Roy Halladay dominated? Or that the Phils lineup got to Lannan? Color me not shocked.

What has grabbed attention is Stan's open admission of this ownership groups operational plan. They intend to create a hometeam Washington Generals for the amusement of displaced fans in other cities.

You have to admire its brilliance. And it would only work in Washing ton with its massive transitory population and relative proximity to major, underserved markets (I'm thinking New York)

Hold down payroll, don't take a single risk and cash the revenue sharing checks and the gate from non-Nats fans and laugh all the way to the bank. The Wharton School couldn't be prouder.

Just three words on the right field situation. WTF

Is it some kind of revelation that a Willie Harris/Willy F Tavares platoon wasn't going to work? That you already had offensive black holes at half the batting order slots and WH/WTF were going to be the most glaring?

To me, it reeks of a lack of planning. What did Dukes do to merit his dismissal? It must have been something since he has yet to resurface. Even a 2009 Dukes should be able to find a job, hell he'd hit cleanup for the A's.

So you had to axe Dukes and you did it without any idea of what you were going to do going forward. Great. I'll sell you some real estate in Las Vegas if you buy this "Nats looking at "high-profile" right field options" BS. That's message board quality stuff . . . oh hey the Rays'll trade us B.J. Upton for ????? They never say who. And to be honest, who would it be?

Of course, if they wanted to fix the spot, they could do so. Wladimir Balentien is freely available for almost nothing. He'd be an upgrade, even an asset. Cincinnati would give him for next to nothing. Now maybe you are waiting till he's put on waivers knowing that your putrid record last years gives you first dibs on the leftovers. If so, great. If not, three more words WTF. Need a spot on the roster? OoooHHHH OooooHhhhh ask me ask me. I know who could go . . .

I can give them a smidge of credit for making a quick move to at least try to patch the sucking chest wound in RF. It's just a real organization wouldn't have had it come to this on April 7th.

Really?!?

2010-04-01T10:00:00.000-07:00

NATIONALS NEWS NETWORK: Really?!?

The funny thing is: this headline could mean just about anything when it comes to our Nats these days.

This particular really?!? involves Willy Tavares whom I have already opined.

But you could say the same thing for Scott Olsen. Or Matt Capps (I'm sure it's just spring rust?)

It shouldn't be this hard to put together a narrative of the club's direction. But what can you make of actually thinking Willy Freaking Tavares is a good idea at any level? Here's a clue Mike: Willy Tavares IS REALLY BAD AT BASEBALL!

I get it. He's fast. So F(*&^&*( what! Usain Bolt is a hell of a lot faster why not him? I'll bet he isn't THAT much worse of a hitter than WTF. Oh Willy can catch the ball. News flash: there are lots of guys who's lone skill is catching the ball. It's not unusual. So find one who has that skill AND BRINGS ANYTHING ELSE TO THE TABLE!

Willy to me symbolizes the utter lack of imagination we're subjected to here in Washington. I get that you might consider this fetish with veteran stability a welcome break from Captain Leatherpants. Yes, the majority of his gambles didn't pan out. Such is the nature of gambles. At least there was a sliver of hope, at least you are telling me there's a chance. Willy Tavares tells me there is NO chance. It's like giving up. Now and in the future. What possible use is it to waste a single AB on Tavares? What future value will be mined as a result of WTF's presence.

It's not a secret that he sucks. He has made it abundantly clear that he a bad baseball player. No matter how well he does, it's not like he'll have trade value. It's not like he'll suddenly improve and be a plus player this year. So I ask WTF?

You want an example of imagination? The Marlins traded a ballboy to the Tigers for Nate Robertson. The Marlins. The team that didn't add a single FA in the off season. They are paying him diddely poo. And he isn't very good as a starter. But guess what? He IS really good at getting left handed batters out. Which I'm sure Adam Dunn will find out sometime this season. So, why not go to the Tigers and say "We'll pay $1m of his salary and give you a nothing prospect." That's more than the Marlins gave and all the Tigers wanted was salary relief and the roster spot.

Make him your LOOGY. Don't let him face too many RHB's. Watch as he is effective in that role. Then, flip him at the deadline for something useful. Team is better today and has an asset for the future. Simple.

Instead, I will silently seethe every time I watch WTF make outs at a staggering rate. Or more likely I won't watch.

What purpose does it serve?

2010-03-26T08:36:00.000-07:00

A stat heavy analysis showing how Willie Harris is just as good if not better than Elijah Dukes got me to thinking about the why's and wherefores of this decision. And as I did, the beginnings of a pattern emerged . . .

It is true to say any angst over the Dukes release is over his potential not his production.

And it's also true that the most likely outcome is no real difference in production between Harris and Dukes in RF for 2010.

But this angst as it were is real. Essentially, the Nats FO decided they would rather have veteran mediocrity rather than gamble on finding a potential All-Star.

I'm not saying Dukes will develop into a feared middle of the order power hitter and model citizen elsewhere. In fact, he likely won't. But a player with his skill set (which included until 2009 plate discipline) has a chance to turn into a far above average player. The Nats NEED above average players. They have 1. One.

This continues the path this new FO has taken since they took over. A preference for veteran stability over gambles on potential. That's fine if you are the Yankees or the Red Sox but when you lose 205 games over two years, what do you have to lose taking big risks?

They didn't take a risk and sign Aroldis Chapman. They could have. Easily. They have plenty of spare payroll not doing anything useful. The Morgan trade was the same thing. Got older and less upside. Sure Morgan was undervalued but if his hammy's are barking, he less than useless.

Pudge, Marquis, Adam Kennedy . . . all the same thing. Old and average at best. What is the point of squandering playing time on them? What purpose does it serve?

Nationals Journal
- Miguel Batista rounds out the Nationals bullpen

Nationals Journal - Craig Stammen states his case for Nationals rotation

2010-03-23T07:25:00.000-07:00

Nationals Journal
- Craig Stammen states his case for Nationals rotation

I know the "I was hurt last year and now I feel great" is a spring training cliche. Yet, despite the apparent agony in his right arm, Stamman went from A to the bigs and was at least not totally embarrassing. Must be something there, maybe not in pure "stuff" but in having the mentality to pitch in pressure situations. Something to be said for a guy who can repeat his delivery, maintain reasonable control and make pitches in key situations on the major league level. Lots of guys make a lot of money being able to do just that.

I'm still waiting to see what they do with their decision at shortstop. It's doesn't seem to be a difficult choice: one one hand you have a 24 year old who has shown above positional average hitting skills and at least has a ++ arm defensively. On the other hand you have an aging fast, league average at best with the bat and declining range and arm but making $8m vet who will sulk if not playing everyday. Sulk away. The $8m should cushion any hurt feelings.

What purpose does it serve to waste ABs on Guzman at this point? Essentially, the only flaw keeping Desmond from being an above average shortstop is concentration. If he can execute a higher percentage of routine plays in the field and maintain current levels of offense, suddenly the Nats have filled a spot at above league average. Can't say that about most spots. Give Desmond the job and let him sink or swim. He has a chance to be part of a decent Nats team in the future and Guzman doesn't.